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Russo-Ukrainian war, day 712: Netherlands to send six more F-16s to Ukraine

Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced that the Netherlands is preparing to dispatch six more F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Lt-Gen Serhii Naiev reveals future defense aid packages for Ukraine will include missiles for F-16s capable of striking targets up to 500 km away.
Russo-Ukrainian war, day 712: Netherlands to send six more F-16s to Ukraine

Exclusive

Lysychansk “bakery” strike: how Russian propaganda duped Western media. In a casebook study of war propaganda, a Ukrainian strike on a Lysychansk restaurant hosting Russian occupiers was falsely portrayed by Kremlin outlets as an attack on a civilian bakery, fooling major Western publications.

Military

General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel over 90 Russian attacks across seven front sectors. Over the past 24 hours, a total of 105 skirmishes between Ukrainian and Russian forces took place on the frontline.

Netherlands to send six additional F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. This latest commitment increases the total number of aircraft pledged to Ukraine by the Netherlands to 24.

Commander: Ukraine to receive F-16s, 300-500 km missiles in future aid packages. Lt-Gen Serhii Naiev reveals future defense aid packages for Ukraine will include F-16s and missiles capable of striking targets up to 500 km away.

ISW: Russia’s troop reserves align with its attack efforts, not predictive of future moves. Russian reserve troop concentrations are highest along frontlines in southern and western Ukraine, mirroring ongoing Russian offensive efforts around Bakhmut and the Kupiansk-Svatove line but not necessarily predictive of future operations, ISW says.

As of 05 Feb 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

      • Personnel: 389560 (+810)
      • Tanks: 6348 (+5)
      • APV: 11822 (+4)
      • Artillery systems: 9349 (+18)
      • MLRS: 979
      • Anti-aircraft systems: 664 (+1)
      • Aircraft: 332
      • Helicopters: 324
      • UAV: 7173
      • Cruise missiles : 1848
      • Warships/boats: 24
      • Submarines: 1
      • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 12412 (+19)

Intelligence and technology

New Ukrainian drone to engage in tactical nighttime operations. The Shoolika mk6, Ukraine’s latest strategic strike drone, promises to redefine night warfare with advanced vision systems and precision targeting.

UK intel: Russia may lean more on debt and taxes amid 2024 budget pressures. Russia’s 2024 budget relies on optimistic 22% revenue growth to fund 26% higher expenditure, but projected oil and gas revenue gains may fall short, with government having to weigh measures like less National Wealth Fund contributions or more taxes and debt, per UK intelligence.

Canada’s opposition urges gov’t to supply Ukraine with CRV7 air-to-ground rockets slated for disposal. Canada is exploring the possibility of donating thousands of decommissioned CRV7 unguided rockets to Ukraine in response to calls for support, with opposition leader Pierre Poilievre and online advocates pushing for this initiative.

International

UK MPs, Peers, campaigners back renewed calls to designate Russia state sponsor of terrorism. UK’s 13 MPs and 5 Peers have signed a joint letter to the UK Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, calling on him to review the case for designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.

France summons Russian ambassador over strike killing French aid workers in Ukraine. As France prepares to confront Russia’s envoy Mechkov over drone strikes killing two relief volunteers in Ukraine, Kherson Oblast restricted access on 5 February for foreign aid workers to areas facing constant Russian shelling.

US Senate negotiators release border and military aid bill, which includes $ 60 bn for Ukraine. The $118 billion national security package represents a significant priority for President Biden; however, it encounters strong opposition from former President Donald Trump and his supporters.

Canadian FM says Canada-Ukraine security assurance deal could be reached in weeks. Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has revealed that Canada and Ukraine are in the advanced stages of finalizing a security “assurances” agreement. “We can conclude it in the coming weeks,” she says.

Sullivan dismisses standalone Israel aid bill as a “ploy”. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan dismissed a bill introduced by US House Speaker Mike Johnson, aimed at providing aid to Israel separately from Ukraine, as a “ploy.”

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian shelling of downtown Kherson kills four civilians (video). Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces launched 132 shells at the Kherson Oblast, including 32 shells directed at Kherson city itself.

Minister: Russian attacks on Ukraine’s settlements increased by 25% last week. Russian forces launched more than 1,500 attacks on over 570 settlements in Ukraine last week, most of them in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Russian MLRS shelling kills one, and injures two in Sumy Oblast. A 39-year-old man was killed due to a shell directly hitting his house.

Zelenskyy: “Zaluzhnyi? We need a reset, a change of leadership not only military”. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy commented on media reports suggesting the potential dismissal of General Valery Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian Army, stating the need for a change in the country’s leadership direction.

New developments

Latvian farmers protest Russian, Belarusian food imports. In 2023, Russian grain imports to the EU via Latvia increased by about 80,000 tons, totaling over 380,000 metric tons.

Read our earlier daily review here

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    A new training hub opens in Romania for Ukrainian pilots to learn to fly F-16s. Germany will send two additional IRIS-T anti-air systems, while the US has reportedly purchased 60 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks from Jordan to provide to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian shelling of Kherson killed two civilians and wounded at least 12, including a two-month-old baby.