ISW: Russia’s troop reserves align with its attack efforts, not predictive of future moves

Mashovets pointed out that it's unsurprising for Russia's Dnepr Grouping of Forces, situated in occupied Kherson Oblast, to rank third in terms of reserve numbers. This is because Russian forces might be apprehensive about a potential Ukrainian threat in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian officials have recently mentioned that over 70,000 Russian personnel are present on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, although many are concentrated further in the rear.

The reserves of the Dnepr Grouping of Forces could readily shift towards the Zaporizhzhia direction if the situation demanded it. Mashovets further analyzed that the Central Grouping of Forces, responsible for the Lyman direction, maintains the lowest reserve concentration due to its smaller operational zone, necessitating fewer troops.

ISW's assessment suggests that the Central Grouping of Forces maintains a lower reserve concentration because Russian activities in the Lyman direction are likely intended to support the Western Grouping of Forces' operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove line, as ISW will soon elaborate in an upcoming operational analysis of the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis. As long as Russia retains strategic initiative across the theater, they can easily shift their reserve concentrations between various front sectors.