Russo-Ukrainian War, Day 1063: Zelenskyy warns Putin to return to war without security guarantees for Ukraine

Exclusive

Ukrainian who outshocked Schoenberg returns to wartime Lviv. The composer who made Schoenberg sound tame vanished at his peak in 1920. A century later, his lost piano concerto comes home to Ukraine as air raid sirens wail over Lviv.

Military

Ukraine targets Russia's 29th Combined Arms Army command center in Donetsk Oblast. This is at least the fifth attack on Russian military command structures this month. Russian forces alter tactics in assault on Pokrovsk, attempt western flanking, military says. Russians are attempting to outflank the city through small settlements and wooded areas to disrupt logistics. Zelenskyy says 4,000 North Korean troops killed in Kursk Oblast out of 12,000 deployed. Ukrainian forces created a buffer zone near Sumy through the Kursk operation in Russia while facing pressure on the eastern front amid aid delays. Russian soldier kills commander as troop unrest grows in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, say partisans. Partisan intelligence reveals escalating violence within Russian units as commanders allegedly torture troops and demand bribes, triggering fatal confrontations and increased weapon restrictions. As of 21 JAN 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 822030 (+1600)
• Tanks: 9833 (+12)
• APV: 20477 (+23)
• Artillery systems: 22134 (+60)
• MLRS: 1262
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1050
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 331
• UAV: 22898 (+130)
• Cruise missiles: 3051
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 34682 (+194)

Intelligence and Technology

German Leopard 2 tank manufacturer establishes joint venture in Ukraine. The company will focus on maintaining and repairing military equipment supplied by KNDS to Ukraine's Defense Forces. Ukraine debuts new drones in Smolensk plant strike, says military expert. A missile production plant in Smolensk became the latest target of Ukraine's evolving drone campaign, as the expert reveal new tactics designed to overwhelm Russian air defenses. Estonia plans to guard energy sites during break from Russian grid. Tallinn will deploy police and defense volunteers to secure energy infrastructure during the Baltic States' planned Russian power grid disconnection in February.

International

Putin to return "with 10 times larger army" without security guarantees, Zelenskyy says at Davos. Zelenskyy warns Davos that Russia's military presence in Ukraine has already tripled to 608,000 troops since 2022. Duda at Davos: Ukraine war must end in Kremlin's defeat. At the Davos Economic Forum, Polish President Andrzej Duda declared that the war in Ukraine must end with a decisive defeat for the Kremlin Zelenskyy calls for joint air defense production between Ukraine and Europe. "We cannot rely on the goodwill of several capitals when it comes to the security of Europe - be it Washington, Berlin, Paris, London, Rome." Ukraine's President said in Davos. Israel considers sending captured Russian-made weapons to Ukraine, embassy reports. A diplomatic meeting between Ukrainian and Israeli officials has revealed plans to potentially transfer seized Russian weapons to Ukraine, marking a new phase in bilateral security cooperation. Talks with Trump team may begin in early February, says Ukrainian parliamentary leader. The development comes after President-elect Trump's promise to end the war and announcement to arrange a call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential meeting. Russia's 1.5 mn force dwarfs combined European armies, Zelenskyy warns. In Davos, Zelenskyy stressed that Russia's military force of 1.5 million personnel vastly outnumbers European armies, with France's 200,000-strong military being Europe's second-largest. Ukraine to become "humanitarian superpower," UN official says. Ukraine's NGOs have developed such expertise during Russia's invasion that they're positioned to lead future global humanitarian efforts, says UN deputy secretary-general.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Ukraine's ombudsman seeks Qatar's help to rescue children from Russia. After successfully mediating previous child repatriations, Qatar's foreign minister meets with the Ukrainian official to address the forced deportation of 19,500 children to Russia. North Korean soldier reportedly attempts suicide while surrendering to Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. A wounded North Korean fighter, captured by Ukrainian paratroopers after drone surveillance, tried to harm himself by headbutting a pole during his transportation to custody. Ukraine's police shows faces of Russian soldiers who murdered civilians in Bucha. Ukraine's Police identified a commander who gave orders to intentionally shoot civilians who appear at a strategic intersection in Bucha.

Political and Legal Developments

Russian Doppelgänger campaign spreads fake news to aid pro-Moscow German party. Russian operatives are flooding German social media with disinformation reaching millions of viewers to boost the pro-Moscow AfD party ahead of February's chancellor election. Italian steel plant made € 93 million while supplying parts for Russian multiple rocket launchers used in Ukraine, investigation reveals. Investigation finds Italian steel plant Cividale Spa earned €93 million from Russia while partner company supplied rocket components. The Telegraph: If frozen Russian assets don't go to Ukraine, Europe will face migration crisis and attack on the Baltics. British financier Bill Browder claimed Europe should size Russia's $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to be independent from Trump's foreign policy. SBU detaines top military mental health official for illicit enrichment in Ukraine. Ukraine's security service detained a top military mental health official who allegedly amassed over $1 million in undeclared assets during wartime.

New Developments

Zelenskyy stresses goal of fair and reliable end to war in 2025. "We want to end the war this year, but not just quickly, but fairly," Ukraine's President said in Davos. Ukraine forces collect DNA samples from North Korean casualties in Kursk region. The DNA collection serves a dual purpose: to identify North Korean nationals fighting against Ukraine and to enter their data into relevant databases for further investigations. Trump says Russia being "destroyed" by Putin's war. "He should make a deal. I think he's destroying Russia by not making a deal," Trump told reporters. UK intel: Russia's Mediterranean presence in doubt after Assad regime collapse. Russia's focus on the invasion of Ukraine has likely weakened its ability to sustain the Assad regime and maintain influence in Syria. Russian shadow fleet's Eagle S remains under arrest as damage claims mount. Finnish authorities have issued dual arrest orders for the Eagle S tanker over suspected involvement in damaging undersea infrastructure. Read our earlier daily review here.