- To march on Kramatorsk, the Russians must get past Kostiantynivka
- But the Ukrainian defenders of Chasiv Yar are blocking the likeliest path through Kostiantynivka toward Kramatorsk
- Recent mechanized assaults have failed, so the Russians may pivot to infantry infiltration
The town of Chasiv Yar, in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, blocks the path to the city of Kostiantynivka, 7 km to the west.
Kostiantynivka blocks the path to the city of Kramatorsk, 15 km to the north.
Kramatorsk and neighboring Sloviansk are the last big free cities in Donetsk Oblast. Russia has spent two years trying to break through Chasiv Yar to reach them. So far, it hasn't.
And that's why Chasiv Yar—what's left of it after years of fighting—matters. After two days of failed mechanized assaults, the Russians' plans for getting around Ukrainian defenders clinging to the western outskirts, in order to then drive on Kostiantynivka, are coming into focus.
"Russians have several options they will probably try to exploit," mapper and observer Vitaly wrote. The easiest for the Russians, they added, may be to infiltrate past the battered Ukrainian defenders of Chasiv Yar and into Novodmytrivka, a village just east of Kostiantynivka.
If enough Russian troops can entrench in Novodmytrivka, they could get access to the H20 road leading north from Kostiantynivka to Kramatorsk. As a bonus, Vitaly pointed out, a Russian occupation of Novodmytrivka would "cut off" Chasiv Yar from Ukrainian reinforcements and bottle up any Ukrainian defenders left behind.
The Russian plans are coming into focus because they're already underway. The Russian push toward Novodmytrivka has begun, according to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets. He and other observers and analysts have noted "ongoing attempts by Russian troops to seize Novodmytrivka," according to the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team.
Novodmytrivka holds for now, largely because Ukrainian positions in and around Chasiv Yar hold. Two days in a row starting 18 April, the Russian 70th Motor Rifle Division attacked Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade holding positions in western Chasiv Yar. Two days in a row, the Ukrainian brigade fought back with drones, artillery and infantry.
"The enemy achieved no success," the Ukrainian brigade reported.
The Russians' 18 April attack involved one tank, five infantry fighting vehicles, 10 motorcycles and some all-terrain vehicles. The 24th Mechanized Brigade logged hits on several vehicles, bikes and ATVs. The Sunday assault group was similar in composition. It met the same fate as the Saturday group.
"The attack was repelled," the 24th Mechanized Brigade reported. "Enemy armored vehicles, transport and assault troops were destroyed."
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Vehicles failed. Foot soldiers may not.
The two days of failed assaults were a costly setback for the Russians, but don't expect them to give up. "The Russians maintain a high level of staffing in their units located near" Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian drone operator and analyst Kriegsforscher noted. "Russian forces will likely increase their activity in this direction with armored vehicles."
But vehicles aren't the biggest threat. The Ukrainians' greatest problem is the same problem they have everywhere along the 1,200-km front line, Vitaly stressed. Ukrainian defenses are optimized for detecting and defeating Russian mechanized columns. The same defenses don't work as well when the Russians send in small groups of infantry on foot or on motorcycles.
Russia’s 1950s tanks are massing for Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian drones are killing them in their sheds.
Widely spread Ukrainian forces can detect a big, noisy mechanized assault and halt it with drones and artillery. But the same Ukrainian forces are spread too thin to detect and block every small group of Russian infiltrators—especially as Russian bombs rain down. A "sparse and suppressed defense with gaps in drone surveillance ... allows the enemy to slip into the gaps," Vitaly explained.
Infantry infiltration is how Russian forces ultimately captured the city of Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad late last year, pushing Russians closer to Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk from the west.
Infiltration may be how they finally push past Chasiv Yar—and pressure those same cities from the east.
