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Russo-Ukrainian war, day 850. Belgium uncovers years-long Russian naval espionage in North Sea

The covert activities, carried out by civilian ships, were found to be more widespread than initially thought. Meanwhile, hardcore nationalist group grips universities in Russia
Russo-ukrainian war
Russo-Ukrainian war, day 850. Belgium uncovers years-long Russian naval espionage in North Sea

Exclusive

“Playing not to lose” mindset hampering West’s support for Ukraine, says Timothy Ash. No football team ever wins by setting out to “not lose,” and the notion that Russia is invincible is “complete nonsese,” says British historian Timothy Garton Ash, insisting the West needs a paradigm shift on Ukraine
Resources of war: Can Russia sustain its war in Ukraine for years? (infographics). Russia’s artillery may deplete by 2025, tank reserves are sufficient until 2027, armored vehicles may degrade within 3-4 years, the financial strain growing, yet the manpower remains stable.
No cases of weapons trafficking from Ukraine to West, arms monitor finds. A study by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime reveals that while Ukraine has seen a surge in “trophy” Russian weapons, valued up to $5 million, there’s no evidence of these arms reaching Western criminal networks.

Military

Russian Pantsir-S air defense system reportedly hit in Belgorod Oblast. Multiple sources, including local media and the regional governor, reported a hit on Russian military equipment

Frontline report: Ukraine thwarts Russian covert pipe operation, regains positions in Chasiv Yar. Innovative drone surveillance by Ukrainian defenders exposed Russian troops concealed in local water pipes, leading to a decisive engagement that saw Kyiv’s forces reclaim key areas in Chasiv Yar’s contested terrain.

Russia shifts to Azov Sea for missile launches, escaping naval drones. Russia has moved its Kalibr-carriers out of the Black Sea, attempting to get out of the reach of Ukraine’s naval drones. They can run but they can’t hide.

Ukrainian military reports increased Russian offensive near Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian military spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn confirms ongoing battles as Ukrainian forces resist Russian advances near Toretsk.

Intelligence and technology

UK intel: Russian nationalist movement pushes for harsher approach to Ukraine war. Owner of a Russian nationalist TV channel Konstantin Malofeev is sponsoring a university movement that envisions global Russian ideological dominance

Belgium uncovers Russian civilian ships’ spying on North Sea infrastructure for years. The operations, which targeted pipelines and cables, were found to be on a much larger scale than previously known, revealed newspaper De Tijd and Follow the Money platform.

FT: €800mn worth of ammunition from Serbia reached Ukraine via third parties. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić downplayed his country’s role in supplying ammunition that ultimately reaches Ukraine, insisting in an interview that Serbia legally sells the ammo and what buyers do with it is “their job.”

Ukraine inks seven defense deals at Eurosatory exhibition in Paris. Ukraine signed an agreement with Arquus to maintain and modernize armored vehicles.

The Washington Post: Ukrainian troops are turning to buggies amid constant drone threat on battlefield. While buggies are useful for their mobility, they lack the firepower, capacity, and armor needed to carry significant troops and supplies or provide protection.

Washington Post: US allows Ukraine to strike Russian territory but with limits. Ukrainian officials claim US restrictions on weapons use continue to give Russia a military advantage, WP reported.

Netherlands to provide Patriot air defense system to Ukraine. The Netherlands’ Defense Ministry has refused to disclose the exact timeline for delivering the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine, aiming to keep the information confidential from Russia.

International

Two more countries sign Ukraine’s Global Peace Summit communique. Barbados and the Marshall Islands have become the fifth and sixth countries to sign the final document after the conference’s conclusion as Ukraine continues efforts to woo the Global South

German vice chancellor warns China of economic fallout over Russia’s support. Germany’s Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck linked China’s support for Russia to potential economic consequences during talks in Beijing on 22 June.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian missile strike hits Ukraine’s only oil and gas university. Naftogaz Group, Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company, has pledged to finance the restoration of Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas

Russia attacks Kharkiv with guided bombs, killing 3, injuring 32.

Spanish authorities dismantle criminal group involved in sexual exploitation of Ukrainian women. Spanish police have arrested five individuals for allegedly trafficking and sexually exploiting Ukrainian and Belarusian women under the guise of offering refugee assistance.

IAEA confirms destruction of critical substation in occupied Enerhodar. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported the destruction of a key electrical substation in occupied Enerhodar, raising concerns about regional power stability.

Russia strikes at energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s south and west overnight, injuring two workers. The Russian attack injured 2 power workers in Zaporizhzhia. Attacks hit energy infrastructure in Lviv & educational facility in Ivano-Frankivsk.

Expert: Russia’s informational attacks target EU elections and Global Peace Summit. Russians have concentrated 60% of their efforts on convincing Europeans of their narratives, a Ukrainian expert said.

ISW: Russia pushes for new Eurasian security architecture as alternative to NATO. Russia’s proposed Eurasian security structure could include Southeast Asian nations, expanding beyond traditional geopolitical boundaries.

Read our earlier daily review here.

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