Russo-Ukrainian war, day 595: Zelenskyy visits Brussels, Russia mounts offensive on eastern front

Exclusive

Russian drones, jamming stations stymie Ukrainian advance near Robotyne. The skies over Robotyne are filled with Russian drones coordinating artillery strikes and attacking Ukraine's western equipment in what one sergeant calls "a war of drones."

Military

General Staff: Russia suffers heavy losses during massive assault on Avdiivka. According to Ukraine's General Staff, the Russian army lost 91 armored vehicles and 34 tanks during offensive operations within 24 hours. Belgium to send “several” F-16s to Ukraine starting in 2025. The exact number of F-16 fighter jets remains unspecified, however it will "depend on the ramp-up of our [Belgian] new F-35 capability". UK to announce new military aid for Ukraine worth $122 mn. A new military support package will help Ukraine’s forces clear minefields, maintain its vehicles, shore up defensive fortifications to protect critical national infrastructure from "Putin’s barbaric bombing campaign." Defense ministers of Ukraine and Belgium discuss F-16 provision. Ukraine seeks F-16 fighter jets to reshape the dynamics on the battlefield. US rolls out new USD 200 million Ukraine military aid package. The Pentagon has announced the transfer of additional security equipment to Ukraine, marking the Biden Administration's 48th tranche since 2021. The $200 million package boosts Ukraine's air defense, anti-tank capabilities, and restocks HIMARS and artillery munitions. Canada announces winter military aid for Ukraine worth $19 mn. The aid package includes winter clothes, military uniforms for 2,000 female soldiers, different ammunition. Finland approves 19th military aid package to Ukraine worth €95 million. Finland’s military assistance to Ukraine reaches €1.4 billion with the latest package. US to spearhead Ukrainian pilot training on F-16 fighter jets. The US will lead a collaborative effort with the Netherlands and Denmark to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, the US Defense Secretary says. Frontline report: Russia’s costly assault on Avdiivka yields minimal gains at this time. Russia launched a massive, coordinated offensive on the Ukrainian-held city of Avdiivka, bringing fighter jets, helicopters, hundreds of tanks and thousands of troops to bear. ISW: Russia’s Avdiivka attacks aim to stop Ukraine reinforcements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ISW’s analysts say Russia does not have enough forces around Avdiivka to fully encircle the heavily fortified city. Russia launches massive offensive on eastern front. Ukrainian troops hold their ground, while Russia intensifies its attacks in the Donetsk Oblast.

As of 11 Oct 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 283900 (+820)
    • Tanks: 4863 (+34)
    • APV: 9220 (+91)
    • Artillery systems: 6731 (+18)
    • MLRS: 809 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 545 (+1)
    • Aircraft: 316 (+1)
    • Helicopters: 316
    • UAV: 5226 (+19)
    • Cruise missiles : 1530
    • Warships/boats: 20
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 9145 (+20)

Intelligence and technology

British intel: Over 100K Russian troops suffer mental health crisis. The number likely higher now, as psychologists identified this in December 2022; doctors in Russia send such military personnel to fight to the front, so its combat capability is low.

International

Belgium commits €1.7 billion for Ukrainian aid from taxed frozen Russian assets. Belgium commits €1.7 billion for Ukraine's assistance, drawing from taxed frozen Russian assets. The EU and G7 explore taxing immobilized Russian sovereign assets, while Belgium works on banning Russian diamonds from its markets. Bloomberg: NATO allies to jointly demine Black Sea route. Türkiye, Romania, and Bulgaria are considering creating a joint force to clear any mines drifting into their waters from Russia's war in Ukraine.

Humanitarian and social impact

Four killed and two injured in Russian strike on Nikopol high school. Russian shelling caused widespread damage in a small town far from the frontlines. Avdiivka under fire: Russian indiscriminate shelling kills a civilian. Russia unleashed a massive assault on the Ukrainian stronghold in the Donetsk Oblast. Russia drops glide bombs on civilians and attacks funeral service in Kherson Oblast. The Russian army continues to violate the laws and customs of war in Ukraine. Ukraine gets a billion-dollar grant in US aid. The US funds Ukraine's state budget through a World Bank initiative.

Political and legal developments

Almost 2⁄3 of Ukrainians oppose voting before war ends, survey shows. 64% of Ukrainians have a negative attitude toward holding presidential elections in Ukraine in wartime. The main reasons are lack of funding and inability to vote in occupied areas. Xerox leaves Russia in response to Ukraine invasion. One of the world leaders in printing and document management technologies sells its Russian subsidiary and discontinues its operations in Russia. Ukrainian brothers accused of coordinating deadly Russian missile attack on cafe in Hroza. Ukraine's Security Service identified Volodymyr and Dmytro Mamon, 30 and 23, who might have helped Russia to carry out attack on the cafe (55 killed), knowing there would be acquaintances from the home village.

New developments

NORSAR: Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia damaged by explosion. Balticconnector ensures gas transportation between Finland, Estonia, and Latvia, helping these NATO countries reduce dependence on Russian gas. Read our earlier daily review here.