Russia may attempt to create a new threat in northern Ukraine through Belarus, in order to divert Ukrainian forces away from the main frontlines. Yevhen Dykyi, a former company commander of the Aidar Battalion, says this would be a diversionary operation, not a full-scale offensive on Kyiv, UNIAN reports.
In April, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia is once again attempting to draw Belarus into the war against Ukraine. According to him, Minsk is, in particular, expanding roads toward Ukrainian territory and establishing artillery positions.
Additionally, it has announced a call-up of reserve officers for military service. They are to be assigned to the army and border service. The draft is expected to include men aged 27 or younger who are not entitled to a conscription deferment.
Dykyi says Russia currently lacks the resources to repeat a large-scale invasion from the north, as it attempted in 2022.
Russia attempts to stretch Ukrainian defenses from north
Dykyi suggests that Moscow could use the Belarusian border as a tool of pressure, particularly if political approval is granted by ruler Aliaksandr Lukashenka.
This could involve creating a zone of constant tension along the border, similar to what is already seen in parts of the Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts, where Russia is attempting to create a "buffer zone".
Ukraine forced to respond despite limited reserves
According to the expert, Russia is operating in conditions where Ukrainian defense forces are increasingly seizing the initiative on the battlefield, forcing the adversary into a predominantly defensive posture. It is important for the Russians to regain the initiative.
“It is clear that we will have to redeploy some units there, but from where? They will have to be taken from the front,” Dykyi explains.
The expert believes that even limited escalation along the northern border could force Ukraine to redistribute forces more broadly, creating additional strain on defense capabilities across multiple regions simultaneously.
