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Ukraine destroys Russia’s BUK surface-to-air missile launcher, damages two more radar-equipped launchers. The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces conducted drone strikes on Russian BUK missile systems “in the Sumy direction,” an area without a front line, implying that the strikes likely occurred inside Russia. |
Military
800 days into war, Zelenskyy says Ukraine faces new phase as Russia readies offensive. Ukrainian intelligence confirms that Russia is now focused on seizing the Donbas first, then potentially assaulting Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.
Russian airstrike on Kharkiv kills 82-year-old bedridden woman. Two elderly men, aged 66 and 78, sustained injuries.
Ukraine’s intel: Russia prepares for assault in Kharkiv, Sumy oblasts, awaits outcome in Donbas. Ukrainian intelligence general Skibitskyi says Russia is now focused on seizing the Donbas first, then potentially assaulting Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, while using three-pronged military, disinformation, international isolation campaign against Ukraine.
Ukrainian defenders target Russia’s anti-aircraft missile systems, ammo depots, air defense system over last day. The Avdiivka fronts witnessed the most intense fighting, where Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a significant number of attacks.
As of 03 May 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
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- Personnel: 472140 (+1270)
- Tanks: 7354 (+22)
- APV: 14129 (+33)
- Artillery systems: 12102 (+58)
- MLRS: 1053
- Anti-aircraft systems: 786 (+2)
- Aircraft: 348
- Helicopters: 325
- UAV: 9580 (+19)
- Cruise missiles : 2126
- Warships/boats: 26
- Submarines: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 16266 (+42)
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Intelligence and technology
UK intel: Ukrainian attack on Krasnodar Krai air base forces dispersal of Russian aircraft, boosting operational burdens. Dispersal of around 40 Russian aircraft from Kushchovskaya airfield due to Ukrainian attack will increase sortie lengths, fuel costs, and strain on aircrews, per UK intelligence.
Air Force: Upcoming Ukrainian F-16s to successfully integrate with Soviet-era Mig-29 aircraft. Spokesman says the Ukrainian Air Force’s Soviet-made MiG-29 aircraft will be able to effectively cooperate with the soon-to-arrive F-16 aircraft, as experience with joint operations already exists.
Media: Italia PM to announce transfer of SAMP/T air defense system, Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. Italian media reports that PM Meloni plans to announce a new aid package for Ukraine next month, including the SAMP/T air defense, Stinger MANPADs, and Storm Shadow missiles.
Over 100 Russian troops killed in ATACMS strike, footage shows. More than 100 Russian soldiers were reportedly killed in a Ukrainian ATACMS missile strike on a training ground in Luhansk Oblast, according to footage and analysis.
International
Russian losses in Ukraine reach 500.000, says France. According to Ukrainian military estimates, Russia has lost over 470,000 personnel in the two years since the full-scale invasion.
Zelenskyy unveils agenda for upcoming Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. Among these issues, particularly, prisoner exchanges with Russia, notably an “all for all” swap.
Russia open to “truly serious” Ukraine peace proposals, Foreign Ministry says. The Global Peace Summit on Ukraine in June, set in Switzerland, will proceed without Russia.
Switzerland Peace Summit on Ukraine to present unified negotiation terms to Russia – Zelenskyy’s spokesperson. The June 15-16 summit will convene without Russia. Leaders from numerous countries will gather to discuss Zelenskyy’s peace formula and draft a clear roadmap for peace based on it.
Russia’s non-participation in Switzerland peace summit is Ukraine’s firm position, says Zelenskyy’s top aide. The summit aims to revive international law principles to protect nations from aggressor states.
UK’s top diplomat rejects NATO troops in Ukraine. Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out the possibility of NATO deploying troops to assist Ukraine, sparking a debate among Kyiv’s allies.
UK’s Cameron started talks on 100-year partnership with Ukraine, discussed speeding up military aid, planted tree. After FM Cameron told media that the UK is not against Ukraine using British weapons inside Russia, official sources revealed his other activities in Ukraine: planting a tree in Lviv, and discussions on accelerating military deliveries and Russia’s frozen asset transfer.
Sky News confirms that Cameron said UK backs Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with UK-supplied weapons. During his May 2 visit to Kyiv, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron affirmed UK support for Ukraine, endorsed strikes within Russia using British weapons, and pledged £3 billion annually in military aid for as long as necessary, per Sky News.
Lasting peace requires Russia’s unconditional pullout from Ukraine, says EU. The EU stresses that the path to a just peace lies through Russia’s complete withdrawal of all troops from Ukraine’s territory within its internationally recognized borders.
NATO allies “deeply concerned” about recent Russian hybrid operations on Allied territory. NATO allies deeply concerned about Russia’s intensifying hybrid campaign across Euro-Atlantic area, condemning malign activities, expressing solidarity with affected allies.
Humanitarian and social impact
Ukraine seeks emergency assistance from EU countries amid Russian ballistic strikes. The Ukrainian state energy company has turned to neighboring countries for emergency power aid.
Political and legal developments
ISW: Putin punishing Shoigu for failing to achieve Kremlin’s military goals in Ukraine. This follows the arrest of a deputy defense minister & suggests Putin blames Shoigu for failing to meet military goals in Ukraine. However, Shoigu’s dismissal seems unlikely in 2024.
Ukrainian deputy urges allies to impose taxes on Russian imports for country’s reconstruction. Ukraine plans to create a fund to gather various reparation sources and ensure compensation payments for its citizens.
New developments
Ukraine sees 20% surge in agricultural trade after Polish blockade termination. The blockade initiated by Polish farmers was lifted in April 2024, after months of protests at the Ukrainian border, which severely disrupted military assistance and goods supplies, including essential drone parts for Ukraine.
Germany says Russia behind massive cyberattack last year after Berlin decided to send Ukraine tanks. Germany concluded a probe into Russia’s 2023 cyberattack, with the German FM stating it “was a state-sponsored Russian cyber-attack on Germany” and this “will have consequences.”
US diplomat says North Korea ships thousands of ammunition containers to Russia. Pyongyang, in turn, seeks to acquire fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, and other advanced technologies from Russia
Read our earlier daily review here.
