Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1038: Western components found in production of Russia’s new Oreshnik missile

Exclusives

The Soviets tried to steal Christmas. Ukrainians are taking it back. Each winter, Soviet authorities fought a war against Christmas. They lost to wheat berries, poppy seeds, and grandmothers who wouldn't forget.

Our secret Christmas lives: Euromaidan Press team opens family albums. In this deeply personal piece, the Euromaidan Press team reveals how their families fought to keep Ukrainian Christmas alive — from singing forbidden carols under Soviet rule to nurturing vibrant community celebrations in Canada, carrying a cherished tradition across borders and generations.

Military

HIMARS strike eliminates three Russian captains at Zaporizhzhia command meeting. Drone attacks on rescue teams followed the strikes. ISW: Russian forces likely capture Kurakhove after two-month offensive. After deploying tens of thousands of troops and conducting numerous armored assaults since mid-October, Russian forces have advanced to the settlement's administrative boundaries. Two transformers destroyed in drone attack on oil pumping station in Russia's Bryansk Oblast. The drones targeted the Transneft-Druzhba facility reportedly on 25 December. Ukrainian forces capture Egyptian fighting for Russia. Ukrainians repelled a Russian assault group near Kurdiumivka, capturing a fighter from Egypt and eliminating others. All Russian explosive drones neutralized, but missile strikes Zaporizhzhia factory. Russia's daily attack was smaller in scale than usual, involving only 24 drones and two missiles. No casualties were reported. As of 27 DEC 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 782510 (+1650)
• Tanks: 9644 (+14)
• APV: 19951 (+18)
• Artillery systems: 21379 (+22)
• MLRS: 1256
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1032
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 20999 (+28)
• Cruise missiles: 3003
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 32262 (+82)

Intelligence and Technology

Ukraine's defense industry claims 59% of military contracts after production surge. Ukraine triples domestic weapons production and secures 59% of defense contracts as local manufacturers achieve self-sufficiency in drones and electronic warfare systems. Ukrainian Pilot Association head says securing Ukraine's skies requires 200 aircraft. To defend against Russian military aviation, Ukraine needs a modern fleet of up to 250 aircraft, says Hennadii Khazan. Ukraine to use French Mirage jets for ground strikes, not air combat, says Ukrainian pilot. Ukrainian test pilot reveals French Mirage 2000-5F fighters will primarily launch SCALP missiles against ground targets, working alongside F-16s in a specialized tactical approach. FT: Western tools found in production of Russia's new Oreshnik missile. A Financial Times investigation reveals Russian missile production still relies on German and Japanese CNC systems, bypassing sanctions. Ukraine's Nemesis drone battalion expands into regiment. The Ukrainian military continues to expand its drone units in an effort to counter Russia's numerical advantage in personnel with advanced technology.

International

Zelenskyy announces 500 tons of wheat flour for Syria after Assad's regime falls. This aid is part of Ukraine's "Grain from Ukraine" initiative and will help 33,250 Syrian families. Ukraine opens talks with post-Assad Syria. Ukraine's covert support of Syrian rebels with drones and intelligence led to Assad's fall, paving the way for new diplomatic ties. EU should target Russian military-industrial complex with more sanctions, says Dutch ambassador to Ukraine. Alle Dorhout highlights that sanctions against Russia are not entirely "waterproof," as Moscow leverages partnerships with China, Iran, and North Korea to bypass restrictions.

Political and Legal Developments

Ukraine postpones defense anti-corruption vote after digital platform fails. Ukraine's Defense Ministry suspended its digital anti-corruption vote due to technical failures, delaying the selection of 15 public watchdogs meant to prevent procurement scandals.

New Developments

Kremlin's silence on plane crash mirrors MH17 tactics, Ukraine says. Moscow's refusal to comment on the Azerbaijan Airlines crash and Finnish cable damage reveals a familiar pattern of denial, as evidence points to Russian military involvement in both incidents, says Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, a working body of the National Security and Defense Council. North Korean forces execute their own troops in Kursk Oblast, Zelenskyy reveals. Russia deploys North Korean troops with minimal protection in apparent suicide missions. The Telegraph: Azerbaijan airline plane crash resembles MH17 tragedy in Ukraine. Aviation experts find shrapnel damage on crashed Azerbaijani airliner matching MH17's 2014 downing pattern. Ukraine's spymaster Budanov confirms Russia shot down Azeri plane. Azerbaijan Airlines Flight JS-8432, struck by a Russian surface-to-air missile system, crashed in Kazakhstan's Aktau after being denied emergency landing at Russian airports on 25 December. First captured North Korean soldier in Ukraine dies from injuries, Seoul says. South Korea's intelligence confirmed a wounded North Korean POW's death following Ukraine's first such battlefield seizure, per Yonhap. Russia exploits Moldova's lack of air defenses in Ukraine air attacks. Missiles and drones are often routed across Moldova, as highlighted by the recent missile assault, Defense Express says. Read our earlier daily review here