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Russo-Ukrainian war, day 585. Ukraine preps major Bakhmut offensive; Fico win clouds military aid

In preparation for a major operation to retake Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions around the eastern city. The leader of Slovakia’s newly elected ruling party Robert Fico campaigned on ending weapons transfers to Ukraine. Bipartisan US senators vowed to sustain essential aid for Kyiv after it was left out of a deal.
Russo-Ukrainian war, day 585. Ukraine preps major Bakhmut offensive; Fico win clouds military aid

Military

General Staff: Russian counterattacks on eastern and southern fronts fail. Russia tried to regain lost ground in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

Kamikaze drones attack airfield in Russia’s Adler. The attack temporarily restricted flights at Sochi International Airport, one of Russia’s busiest airports.

Frontline report: Ukraine degrades Russian rear positions near Bakhmut preparing major breakthrough. In preparation for a major offensive operation to retake Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have conducted strikes on Russian equipment and positions behind the lines around the city.

Ukrainian missile attack sparks fire at warehouse in occupied Crimea. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that two Ukrainian Hrim-2 operational-tactical missiles were taken down near occupied Dzhankoi.

Near Kremina, Russia deployed reserve 25th Army and increased its personnel to 17,000 people, Censor.net reports, citing the head of the press service of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Illia Yevlash.

Russia amasses more than 10,000 personnel in Bakhmut, Ukrinform reports, citing Illia Yevlash.

Wagner forces no longer pose any tactical threat on front line, Ukrinform reports, citing Illia Yevlash, the spokesperson for the Eastern Grouping of Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “Ukraine records isolated cases of Wagner Group fighters returning to fight in Ukraine, but they do not pose any tactical threat any longer.

These are the remnants of fighters who remained after Wagner was defeated late this spring and early this summer. Of course, most of those war criminals and murderers, after their camps were taken down in Belarus, went to Africa, some of them went home, and some of them came to die on Ukrainian soil. But these are quite isolated cases, we recorded a few such cases that they come to hold some positions as managers and instructors, but they no longer pose any tactical threat and will not pose it any longer, he said.

Yevlash said that the Wagner Group had been destroyed and that they would not be able to resume their activities as before.”

ISW: Ukrainians press counteroffensives in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and near Klishchiivka south of Donetsk’s Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces persisted with counteroffensive operations on September 30 in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and near the town of Klishchiivka, situated around 10 km southwest of vital Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, according to ISW.

Intelligence and technology

MarineTraffic: Five cargo vessels heading for Ukrainian Black Sea ports amid Russia’s blockade. Maritime traffic database identifies five new cargo ships heading to Ukrainian sea ports and three more departing the ports using Ukraine’s newly opened corridor for exports after Russia blocked the UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal.

Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister calls on NATO to continue supporting Ukraine to strengthen Alliance. On 30 September, during the 1st Defence Industries Forum in Ukraine, Deputy Minister of National Defense of Lithuania Monika Tučkutė said, “Ukraine is the best example of how and where new technologies can be used, how they can develop, and how we can combat the enemy.”

Ukraine has signed 20 agreements with French arms manufacturers, and the Czech Republic will allow Ukraine to produce small arms, Ukraine Business News reports.

Ukraine expects to receive another 30 mine clearing vehicles from partners by year end, Ukrinform reports.

China creates obstacles to drone exports to UkraineThe New York Times reports. “New rules restricting the export of drone components came into force in China on 1 September, and suppliers reduced sales of drones to Ukraine, giving China a covert influence on the war. The New York Times noted that the fighting in Ukraine is a drone war. Therefore, there is a growing dependence on UAV suppliers, in particular China, as the cheap drones that have become all-pervasive on the front mainly come from China, the world’s largest producer of these devices.

International

Borrelll: Russian invasion of Ukraine is a threat to Europe. During his trip to Kyiv, the Vice-President of the European Commission discussed with the Ukrainian political and military leadership the EU security commitments for Ukraine.

Bipartisan US senators say Ukraine support will continue after omission from US shutdown aversion deal. Key Republican and Democratic senators issued a statement that Congress will sustain essential military and financial support for Ukraine, although Ukraine assistance was omitted from the agreement preventing a shutdown of the US government.

The Guardian: British troops could be deployed to Ukraine to train military for first time, says Grant Shapps. British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said he held talks with army leaders about deploying British soldiers within Ukraine for the first time for a training program, as per The Guardian.

Sky News: “EU stands with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” says EU top diplomat in Odesa. On 30 September, EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrelll visited Odesa to show solidarity and support for Ukraine, on the one-year anniversary of the illegal annexation of four regions by Russian troops.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russia rains cluster munitions on residential areas in northeastern Ukraine. Russian army is multiplying war crimes in Ukraine by shelling civilians.

Russia’s night attacks injure at least four Ukrainian civilians after one killed, ten injured on 30 September. Russia escalated overnight strikes across Ukraine using drones, missiles, and artillery that injured at least four civilians and damaged more civilian infrastructure.

UN to send $123 mln in aid to Ukraine. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has allocated $123 million to help 900,000 Ukrainians through the fall and the winter of 2023-2024 amid Russia’s missile and drone attacks.

Russia rains cluster munitions on residential areas in northeastern Ukraine. Russian army is multiplying war crimes in Ukraine by shelling civilians.

Oil terminal hit alongside grain storage facilities in Russian attack on Uman on 1 October, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Ihor Taburets, Head of the Cherkasy Oblast Military Administration, and Volodymyr Kulbitskyi, chief engineer at the grain storage facility, in a comment for Suspilne. “Russian drones hit three civilian infrastructure facilities in Uman, Cherkasy Oblast, on the night of 30 September-1 October: a grain storage facility and two facilities at a defunct oil terminal. A total of 3,600 square metres caught fire.

Pro-Russian politician Robert Fico’s party wins Slovakia’s parliamentary election. The party’s leader campaigned to end military aid to Ukraine.

We have bigger issues – Elections winner in Slovakia on intention to stop support for UkraineAP reports. “Robert Fico, leader of the Smer-SD party, which won the Slovak parliamentary elections, has reiterated his statement about his intention to stop providing aid to Ukraine. People in Slovakia have bigger issues than Ukraine. He added that he is ready to start negotiations with other parties to form a coalition government as soon as President Zuzana Čaputová asks him to do so. […] Fico previously declared his intention to stop military and political support for Ukraine, he also said that it was “illusory” to talk about Ukraine’s accession to the EU at that moment, and that Nazism is supposedly “tolerated” in Ukraine.”

Biden urges US Congress to approve Ukraine aid left out of govt shutdown prevention deal. US President Biden welcomed the adoption of a bill to prevent the US gov’t shutdown but urged Congress to swiftly approve aid to Ukraine after it was left out of the deal.

The EU considers Ukraine’s accession to the bloc in 2030 realistic, Ukraine Business News reports. “The EU considers Ukraine’s accession to the bloc in 2030 realistic, said the Ambassador of the EU to Ukraine, Katarina Maternova. She added that Ukraine needs to maintain its pace of reform, which is not always linear. At the same time, Maternova warned that the terms will also be determined by the institutional and political changes that must take place in the EU because, without changes in the voting and decision-making system, the number of EU members cannot expand indefinitely.

Morawiecki: Polish government will protect Polish farmers from ‘Ukrainian agro-oligarchs’, Ukrinform reports, citing Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. “When it comes to the interests of Polish farmers, we will not ask the opinion of anyone in Berlin or Brussels. We act for the benefit of Polish agriculture. We will protect Polish agriculture from Ukrainian agro-oligarchs, Morawiecki said. He also noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had used “very inappropriate words” during his recent speech at the UN General Assembly. I understand that he [Zelensky] now thinks that he will have a close alliance with Germany. I warn you that the Germans will always try to come to an understanding with the Russians over the heads of the Central European countries. It was Poland that took in several million Ukrainians, it was the Poles who took Ukrainians under their roofs, and it was we who helped the most when the Germans wanted to send 5,000 helmets to besieged Kyiv. And this should not be forgotten, Mr. President Zelensky, Morawiecki said.”

New developments

Umerov: Ukraine to receive military aid from US despite budget omission. US Secretary of Defense assured Ukraine’s Defense Minister of continued military support.

Deputy Head of Russia’s Security Council threatens to strike German missiles manufacturing plants, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Head of Russia’s Security Council, on Telegram. “Medvedev was dismayed that Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the Defence Committee at the German Bundestag, urged the German government to give long-range Taurus missiles to Ukrainebecause she said Ukraine has the right to attack targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. “In this case, attacks on German plants where these missiles are made will be entirely within the norms of international law. These imbeciles [sic] really are pushing us towards the Third World [War]…” Medvedev also threatened the UK that Russia will attack British military instructors after UK Defence Minister Grant Shapps said that his country would expand its training programme for Ukrainian soldiers and transfer training and production of military equipment to Ukraine.”

UK to deploy RAF Typhoon fighters to Poland, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Sky News quoting UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps. “The UK is deploying RAF Typhoon fighters to Poland to help defend the country against the threat of Russian aggression.

Russians lack people to staff occupation authorities, Censor.net reports, citing the National Resistance Centre.The invaders cannot find enough people to staff the “authorities” in the temporarily occupied territories, so they have to bring in workers from the territory of the Russian Federation. A “touring official” was sent to the temporarily occupied Berdiansk from the Amur region of the Russian Federation to head the “investigative committee” in the city. The next punitive body of the occupiers will be headed by Mikhail Oleinik from the Russian city of Raychikhinsk.”

Read our earlier daily review here.

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