Exclusives
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I am confident Russia will lose this year. Here’s why. Russia is losing across every domain of warfare—land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace—except one: the cognitive battlefield. |
Military
Russia’s resources losses force offensive slowdown near strategic Pokrovsk, expert says. Russian military faces operational slowdown near Pokrovsk as troop losses reach 423,000, overwhelming training capacity and forcing reduction in offensive operations across Ukraine front.
Ukrainians strike Russian 8th Guards Army command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast (video). The military operation in Khartsyzk targeted Russian command infrastructure between industrial facilities, with multiple explosions confirmed by residents.
Russians kilometers away from Kharkiv’s Kupiansk, Donetsk’s Pokrovsk, authorities say. Both cities are focal points of Russian months-long operations in the regions.
Frontline report: Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian command posts in Kursk. Elimination of Russia’s high-ranking officers cripples military coordination in the region.
Deep State: Russian forces advanced in a number of settlements in Donetsk Oblast. Kurakhove’s fall represents a significant strategic gain, potentially allowing Russian troops to advance further into Ukrainian-held territories.
Forbes: Up to 400 Russo-North Korean troops lost in single attack on Ukrainian positions in Kursk. A combined force of Russian paratroopers and North Korean infantry sustained devastating losses assaulting the contested Makhnovka village in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
ISW: Russians make marginal advances near Toretsk, Kurakhove, deploy more fiber-optic drones. Russian forces achieved territorial gains in three distinct areas.
As of 9 JAN 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
- Personnel: 803100 (+1430)
- Tanks: 9731 (+17)
- APV: 20221 (+16)
- Artillery systems: 21765 (+36)
- MLRS: 1260
- Anti-aircraft systems: 1038
- Aircraft: 369
- Helicopters: 331
- UAV: 21813 (+86)
- Cruise missiles: 3014
- Warships/boats: 28
- Submarines: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 33387 (+80)
Intelligence and Technology
Ukraine aims to set record in drone production in 2025, says Zelenskyy. Speaking at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Germany, Zelenskyy highlighted the cost-effectiveness of domestic manufacturing and the strategic importance of drones for frontline operations, long-range strikes, and maritime security.
International
EU ready to take charge in Ukraine aid as US stance on future support remains unclear under Trump. The EU’s top diplomat reassures allies of Europe’s resolve as concerns mount about a potential US policy shift under the Trump administration.
US Treasury sanctions Hungarian official, straining NATO alliance. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s closest aide and cabinet chief Antal Rogan has been hit with US Treasury sanctions for corruption.
Armenia takes first step toward EU membership. Armenia initiates EU membership process with new draft law, prompting Russian warning about dual membership in European and Eurasian economic blocs amid shifting regional alliances.
White House: Ukraine has tools for success in 2025. Russia’s recent battlefield successes leading into 2025 have been highly limited, according to US Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer.
Ukraine protests as Slovak parliamentary delegation plans Moscow visit. Slovak head of delegation described the opportunity to speak at the Russian Duma as “a once-in-a-lifetime honor for any politician.”
US prepares air defense and F-16 ammunition in latest Ukraine aid tranche. The new $500 million military aid package for Ukraine includes air defense missiles, ammunition and specialized equipment for F-16s.
Several billion dollars in Ukraine aid to remain unused by Biden team. “There will be a few billion dollars in authority left for the incoming administration to decide what they decide to do with that remaining authority,” Singh said.
Humanitarian and Social Impact
Former British soldier Jake Waddington dies in Ukraine combat mission. Jake Waddington, a former British Army soldier who fought in the fierce battle for Bakhmut with Ukraine’s International Legion, was killed on 6 January when a Russian drone dropped a grenade on his position in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Injury toll rises to 113 after Russian bombing downtown Zaporizhzhia kills 13. Russians deliberately struck the crowded streets yesterday evening with two 500-kg guided bombs.
UN reports 574 Ukrainian civilians killed in fall 2024 by Russian attacks. OHCHR’s report also cites Russian attacks damaging infrastructure, grave humanitarian law violations, torture, and 62 executions.
Political and Legal Developments
Moscow exploits Greenland sovereignty debate to justify Ukraine territorial claims. Russia is attempting to reshape the narrative around Greenland’s sovereignty dispute by drawing controversial parallels to its occupied territories in Ukraine, signaling a broader strategy to legitimize territorial claims.
Ukraine Parliament condemns Russian Empire’s Circassian genocide that killed and exiled 90% of population. Ukrainian lawmakers have officially recognized the Russian Empire’s systematic extermination of Circassians during the 1763-1864 Caucasus War, highlighting a devastating campaign that left only 10% of the population in their ancestral homeland.
Ukraine’s gas transit ban marks “expensive defeat” for Moscow, Kirby says. American liquefied natural gas has captured 50% of Europe’s import market as Ukraine’s decision to stop Russian gas transit strips Moscow of $6.5 billion in annual revenue.
Sumy husband-wife team to face trial for revealing Ukrainian defense positions to Russians. A married couple was detained and charged for gathering and sharing military information with Russian intelligence, while the wife also reportedly spread pro-Russian propaganda online.
New Developments
Austin: Russia relying on N. Korea, Iran as war costs mount. Pentagon chief added that in order to hold its gains in Ukraine Russia would need “substantial forces.”
Russia paid Taliban to target US troops in Afghanistan in 2016-2019, investigation reveals. Russian GRU intelligence agency reportedly offered $200,000 for each US soldier killed, transferring funds via Afghan couriers who operated under the cover of gemstone trading.
“Putin too old for peace deals. It is now or never for him in Ukraine,” US security expert says. At 71, Putin no longer has the luxury of playing the long game that marked his previous military campaigns in Ukraine, says Michael DiCianna, a research fellow at the Institute of World Politics.
Kellogg wants to broker Russia-Ukraine peace deal within 100 days of Trump inauguration. The special envoy to Ukraine and Russia nominee emphasizes Trump’s commitment to ending the war through direct negotiations with both Putin and Zelenskyy.
Read our earlier daily review here.
