Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1014: Yale researchers discover 148 stolen Ukrainian orphans in hacked Russian databases

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Nobel Laureate: Trump's route to defeating China lies in crushing Russia first. US strategy to dominate Beijing must begin with exploiting Putin's critical oil weakness in Ukraine.

Military

Frontline report: Ukrainian tank raids destroy Russian troops in bottleneck at Kurakhove's Sontsivka. Russian attempt to outflank Ukraine's Kurakhove from the north failed as Ukrainian tanks raided advancing troops and rivers hindered their advance. Ukrainian forces liberate Novomlynsk, gain control of Oskil River's right bank in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian troops raise their flags over Novomlynsk, forcing Russian occupiers into a chaotic retreat as artillery and drones disrupt their crossings. Ukrainian forces use UAVs to hold off Russian advances near Chasiv Yar. Russian troops attempt to encircle Chasiv Yar, but Ukrainian forces successfully repel their advances from multiple directions. CNN: Ukrainian troops hold ground in Kursk despite mounting pressure. Their efforts are vital for future peace talks, maintaining territorial leverage amid relentless and costly Russian attacks, CNN says. Ukrainian military: Russians still aim to position forces within artillery range of Kharkiv as offensive on region continues. Currently, the occupiers are attempting to reclaim territories from which they were pushed out by Ukraine's Defense Forces in recent weeks. Forbes: Russian military prepares for a big "show" in Kursk Oblast, following heavy losses. Putin has set a February deadline for a Kursk victory as Russian forces shift to simpler, wheeled armored vehicles amid heavy losses. As of 3 DEC 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 745700 (+1780)
• Tanks: 9486 (+8)
• APV: 19419 (+22)
• Artillery systems: 20976 (+23)
• MLRS: 1253
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1019
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 19917 (+31)
• Cruise missiles: 2855 (+3)
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 30666 (+60)

Intelligence and Technology

Ukrainian developers unveil new MP.5100 demining vehicle at specialized forum. The MP.5100, a powerful new demining vehicle, is expected to undergo certification in early 2025. German company introduces AI-powered HX-2 drone for Ukrainian military. Equipped with a 100-km range and swarming capabilities, the HX-2 boosts precision targeting against enemy forces. ISW: Ukrainian EW tech increasingly grounds Shahed drones, complicating Russian airstrikes. Russia's drone assaults, now featuring numerous Shahed and decoy drones, are facing growing disruption due to alleged Ukraine's enhanced EW capabilities. Ukraine expands military robotics capability with major procurement of unmanned ground vehicles. Thousands of robotic vehicles are expected to support Ukrainian defenders on the frontlines at a time when almost 200 Russian small infantry groups attack every day. Ukraine has long-range drones with 1,800 km range, minister says. Fedorov reveals Ukraine's push to develop AI-augmented swarm drones, Shahed interceptors, and plans for tens of thousands of land drones, with 30,000 long-range UAVs expected by 2025. Russia claims Ukraine deployed a new long-range drone. Russia claims Ukraine deployed a new "Lord" drone with a range exceeding 2,000 km, while a Russian firm unveils a $1,800 styrofoam-based recon and kamikaze UAV.

International

Bloomberg: Ukraine's NATO support center lags behind schedule. Despite plans for a fall opening, the command center in Wiesbaden remains understaffed, raising concerns over readiness and coordination. Chinese company supplies technology for Russian glide bombs. Investigation reveals electronic parts from a Chinese company owning a California facility continue flowing to Russia despite China's October export controls. More Chinese banks cut ties with sanctioned Russian financial institutions. However, alternative shadow payment methods are emerging in response. NATO chief warns Trump: forced Ukraine peace deal could embolden China, Iran, and North Korea. Rutte cautioned the US President-elect that pressuring Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal with Russia would lead to a significant global security threat. Ukraine won't accept anything less than NATO membership after failed Budapest Memorandum, Kyiv says. Kyiv urges NATO signatories, including the US and UK, to provide clear, binding security guarantees in light of Russia's aggression. Biden's new $725 million Ukraine military aid package focuses on air defense, artillery. The US Department of Defense unveiled the package, aiming to address Ukraine's urgent battlefield requirements in its ongoing defense against Russian aggression.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Yale researchers trace 148 stolen Ukrainian orphans in hacked Russian database. The researchers exposed details of Russia's adoption network involving forcibly deported children from occupied territories of Ukraine. Former Russian prisoner reveals he saw kidnapped Kherson mayor in FSB prison. A man who spent 2.5 years in a secret FSB prison in Simferopol confirms seeing the kidnapped mayor of Kherson, Ihor Kolyhaiev, held in captivity by Russian forces. BBC has included two Ukrainians in its list of the most influential and inspiring women of 2024. The BBC has named two Ukrainians—farmer Olha Olefirenko and Olha Rudnieva, founder of the Superhumans trauma center—among its list of the most influential and inspiring women of the year. Russian drones damage energy infrastructure in Ternopil, Rivne Oblasts. Ukraine intercepted 22 of 28 explosive drones, with three crashing or leaving Ukrainian airspace, suggesting at least three may have hit facilities.

Political and Legal Developments

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers return to duty after AWOL after new amnesty law. Over 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers have returned to their units since 29 November, when a new law took effect, allowing service members who left their units without authorization to resume military service without facing criminal charges. The law applies only to first-time unauthorized absences and offers amnesty to soldiers who return before 1 January 2025. Belarusian court sentences Ukrainian to ten years for alleged espionage. Belarusian authorities claim he allegedly received training to transport weapons and explosives into Belarus for potential attacks. ISW: Putin uninterested in negotiated peace, wants Ukraine's capitulation. Kremlin-linked oligarch Malofeev claims Putin will only accept peace talks if Ukraine surrenders and the US renews a ban on ATACMS strikes in Russia and removes Zelenskyy. "We'll tell Kellogg to screw himself," Putin's crony on peace talks. Zelenskyy says western media exaggerates Ukrainian losses. Russia accused of exporting repression tactics as Georgia police use extreme violence against protesters. Democracy advocates warn that police violence in Georgia shows hallmarks of Russian training methods documented in other authoritarian states Read our earlier daily review here.