Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1087: Trump pushes peace talks as Europe warns against Ukraine’s exclusion

Exclusives

No Munich in Munich: Zelenskyy cozies up with republicans. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Munich, Germany, holding high-stakes negotiations with Donald Trump's big wigs

"If Russia couldn't beat Ukraine in 2022, why would it win now?" A defiant voice amid despair. In an exclusive interview, Ukrainian defense expert Mykhailo Samus challenges the prevailing despair, arguing that despite the challenges, Ukraine's future is now one of opportunity.

Military

Zelenskyy reports "more confident" Ukrainian position near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. President Zelenskyy announces improved Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk following discussions with US officials, marking shift in six-month battle for strategic Donetsk city. Russia loses 172,000 troops but maintains combat power through 2025. Despite losing 3,700 armored vehicles in 2024, Russian forces maintain offensive capabilities through tactical shifts, while struggling to replace sophisticated equipment from deteriorating Soviet-era stocks. Drone attack hits Slavyansk-na-Kubani in southern Russia's Krasnodar Krai. The night before, nine drones also successfully hit the Andreapol oil pumping station in Russia's Tver Oblast, marking the second attack on the site. Russia lost over 5,000 tanks and other armor in 2024, UK think tank says. Russian forces shift to infantry-led assaults as military production struggles to replace battlefield losses and equip newly formed divisions, ISW says. Syrskyi: Ukraine holds 500 km² of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief reports sustained control of territory inside Russia, establishing a security zone along the border and forcing Moscow to redirect its most combat-capable units from other fronts. As of 14 FEB 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 855480 (+1200)
• Tanks: 10057 (+17)
• APV: 20910 (+16)
• Artillery systems: 23115 (+81)
• MLRS: 1282 (+4)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1066
• Aircraft: 370
• Helicopters: 331
• UAV: 25224 (+152)
• Cruise missiles: 3063
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 37252 (+156)

Intelligence and Technology

Ukraine's F-16s deploy US missiles adapted to defeat Russian air tactics, TWZ reports. Recent photos show Ukrainian pilots using short-range Sidewinder and long-range AMRAAM missiles, effectively countering Russia's R-37M standoff tactics. Forbes: Ukraine hides Shrike drones underwater for stealth attacks on Russian forces. Ukrainian forces have developed a way to turn every pond and water-filled crater into a potential ambush point. Chinese firms supply critical minerals to Russia's weapons industry. Despite Western sanctions, at least two dozen Chinese firms are providing Russia with minerals essential for weapons production, with a third of these companies partially owned by the Chinese government ISW: Estonia warns of Russia's military buildup beyond war in Ukraine. ISW says Estonia's report aligns with its assessments of Russia's ongoing military and societal preparations for a future war with NATO "in the medium to long term."

International

Saudi Arabia offers to host Trump-Putin summit. Saudi Arabia confirms willingness to host Trump-Putin summit on Ukraine, offering ICC-free venue for peace talks amid concerns over European and Ukrainian exclusion from negotiations. Klitschko at Munich Security Conference: NATO's membership "only real security guarantee" against future Russian threats. Speaking at Munich Security Conference, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko warned against peace agreements lacking strong security guarantees. Putin to "declare victory no matter what," US Defense Secretary Hegseth says. As Trump initiates Moscow talks, Defense Secretary Hegseth dismisses Putin's inevitable victory claims while suggesting Ukraine's return to pre-2022 borders remains unlikely. "Great but not last": Zelenskyy meets Vance as US peace strategy remains unclear. At Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President and US Vice President begin charting path to end Russia's war, with Vance emphasizing Washington's commitment to peace that prevents future conflicts. Europe should triple aid for Ukraine to replace US weapons, defense expert warns. As Trump demands increased European defense spending, Ukraine's reliance on critical US-made systems like Patriots and HIMARS highlights the massive funding gap European allies would need to fill to maintain Kyiv's combat capability. Macron warns against Ukraine capitulation in peace talks pushed by Trump. Emmanuel Macron advocates for European defense autonomy and economic independence in response to Trump's return, while warning against forced peace arrangements. Ukraine still on "irreversible path" to NATO despite Trump's stance, UK's Starmer tells Zelenskyy. The UK PM promises Ukraine continued backing for NATO membership and security guarantees during a morning phone conversation with Ukraine's President. Graham calls for NATO security guarantees for Kyiv if Russia violates potential peace deal. Meanwhile, US officials deliver conflicting messages about Ukraine's NATO prospects. NATO tests European deployment capabilities without US participation. As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine nears its 4th year, the EU moves toward military self-sufficiency amid concerns over Trump's commitment to collective defense. US envoy says Putin must negotiate directly with Zelenskyy. The US administration is pushing for trilateral dialogue on Ukraine while insisting that the main combatants must speak directly to each other. Rubio: Trump seeks complete end to Ukraine war, not temporary pause. The Trump administration aims to secure lasting peace in Ukraine through a step-by-step process starting with a ceasefire, Secretary Rubio revealed in a radio interview. US might deploy troops to Ukraine without Moscow-Kyiv peace deal, Vance says. The US Vice President breaks from Trump administration's position by threatening US military deployment and additional sanctions against Russia if Putin fails to negotiate a peace deal. Reuters: Trump vows to involve Kyiv in negotiations with Russia. White House communication with Moscow sparks debate as European officials warn against rushed settlements, excluding Ukraine from decision-making. Munich Security Conference 2025 opens with focus on Ukraine peace prospects. The 61st MSC brings together over 60 world leaders and 100 ministers in Germany to discuss global security challenges.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russian drone damages Chornobyl nuclear plant radiation confinement (updated). Russians launched a total of 133 explosive UAVs and multiple bombs against Ukraine, killing one in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring four in Sumy Oblast.

Political and Legal Developments

Ukraine-Moldova unique operation "Avengers" arrests three Russian Wagner mercenaries who helped to seize Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. Joint Ukraine-Moldova operation arrests three Wagner veterans who fought at Bakhmut, with authorities investigating 85 more Moldovan mercenaries through Europol-supported cooperation. Politico: US federal judge blocks Trump's 90-day USAID freeze. The court finds the Trump administration acted arbitrarily by freezing foreign aid, affecting hundreds of contractors and ongoing international programs.