Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1015: NATO allies remain divided over Ukraine’s potential membership

Exclusives

Europe will act only when Russia causes disaster, Chatham House fellow. Nothing has been able to convince Europe to step up, leaving Putin in precisely the position that he wants to be, which is with large parts of Europe helpless before him, says Keir Giles.

Military

Kyiv forces push back Russian troops in Kharkiv Oblast, but Borova remains under threat. As Russian forces expand their flanks, the risk of losing Borova threatens access to the strategic city of Izium. Frontline report: Russian soldiers' life expectancy near Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast plummets to two weeks amid failed assaults. Ukrainian defenses near Myrnohrad withstand up to 10 daily assaults, forcing heavy Russian casualties and exposing cracks in Moscow's military strategy. Russian troops assembles 300 boats on islands near Kherson, trying to gain foothold there. Ukrainian forces report repeated futile assault attempts, strategic reconnaissance ongoing. ISW: Russia encircles Velyka Novosilka, key hub for operations at the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk border. Russian forces are conducting up to 25 daily assaults to breach the border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Drones attack Diagilevo air base in Russia's Ryazan. The strategic Diagilevo air base, home to critical bomber units, was reportedly targeted by drones. As of 4 DEC 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 747370 (+1670)
• Tanks: 9493 (+7)
• APV: 19450 (+31)
• Artillery systems: 21002 (+26)
• MLRS: 1253
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1020
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 19946 (+29)
• Cruise missiles : 2855
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 30746 (+80)

Intelligence and Technology

Ukraine expands drone production as demand on front lines surges. Newly developed drones adapted for modern warfare are replacing imported Mavics. Ukraine receives MOPMS systems from US to fortify frontlines against Russian advances. The US provides Ukraine with advanced M131 Modular Pack Mine Systems, bolstering its ability to create rapid, mixed minefields and strengthen defenses against Russian advances. Ukraine to increase missile production, Zelenskyy says after successful tests. Other key defense industry focuses include FPV and recon drones, further missile R&D, artillery, according to him.

International

Reuters: Romanian presidential candidate Georgescu vows to end Ukrainian aid, halt grain exports if he takes office. He claimed that Bucharest owes no obligations to NATO, asserting that the country's focus should be on the happiness of its people, not defense spending. US, Germany "not ready" to invite Ukraine to NATO, alliance source says. Meanwhile, Hungary and Slovakia, under pro-Russian leadership, oppose extending a NATO invitation to Ukraine, the source says. Denmark allocates €6 million to help Ukraine rebuild energy infrastructure. Russian attacks destroyed nearly 90% of DTEK's, the largest private energy company in Ukraine, generating capacity during the war. Ukraine's FM: Ukraine may receive 20 air defense systems by end of 2024. Foreign Minister Sybiha said that Ukraine urgently neews air defense systems like HAWK, NASAMS, and IRIS-T systems. Reuters: Italy to approve more military aid for Ukraine this month. As uncertainties loom over US support, NATO and G7 members like Italy continue to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities. NATO chief Rutte stresses more weapons for Ukraine, less talk on peace process. The NATO Secretary General suggested the West should focus on strengthening Kyiv's position before Ukraine considers peace talks with Russia.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russian occupiers ramp up forced mobilization efforts in Luhansk Oblast, while residents freezing without heat. Many residents in Sievierodonetsk continue to endure cold winter temperatures as the region faces a critical shortage of working heating systems, with only minimal heat available in some districts. Abducted Ukrainian mayor of town in Zaporizhzhia Oblast dies in Russian captivity. Russian forces captured the mayor of Dniprorudne in late February 2022, leading to his eventual death in captivity. Russia attacks Ukraine with guided missile and 50 drones overnight. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted 29 out of 50 Russian drones, 18 drones were locatively lost, with one exiting controlled airspace during the latest Russian offensive.

Political and Legal Developments

Ukrainian "pysanka" Easter egg gains UNESCO cultural heritage status. The Ukrainian Easter egg is granted UNESCO status, marking a significant victory for Ukraine's cultural heritage amidst Russia's continued attacks on Ukrainian cultural landmarks. Diamond giants Botswana and Angola agree to push Russia out of market. The world's top 2nd and 4th diamond producers are stepping up to help the G7 and EU prevent Russian stones from entering global markets.

New Developments

Atlantic Council: Putin is obsessed with Ukraine's destruction, isn't interested in peace deal, says expert. US President-elect Trump's deal-making abilities will face a test as Putin plans to continue his campaign to erase Ukraine's sovereignty. US Army Europe Commander: Putin risks losing naval resources in three different regions simultaneously. Putin confronts potential loss of key maritime assets in Syria, Black Sea, and Baltic regions. WP: Trump must avoid appeasement trap in Ukraine-Russia peace talks if he wants to end war. Expert Marc A. Thiessen cautions Trump against pursuing Ukrainian neutrality or disarmament, warning such concessions would mirror the failures of past agreements with Russia. Read our earlier daily review here