Russo-Ukrainian war, day 870: US develops long-range munition for Ukraine with 250kg warhead

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Military

Frontline report: Russia's African mercenary confronts Ukrainian drone with wooden stick in Kharkiv Oblast. Russia's Kharkiv offensive relies on African and Sri Lankan mercenaries due to troop shortages. Poor-quality North Korean artillery shells and equipment failures hinder Russian efforts. Ukrainian forces maintain numerical superiority, potentially creating opportunities for counter-offensives. ISW: Ukraine makes progress near Hlyboke in Kharkiv Oblast, while Russia advances near Siversk in Donetsk Oblast

. Recent geolocated footage indicates Russian forces have advanced in Krasnohorivka and near Siversk, while Ukrainian forces made progress north of Kharkiv City. UK intel: Russia suffers highest war casualties in May-June 2024. Russia's war casualties in Ukraine hit record highs in May-June 2024, exceeding 70,000 in two months, per UK intelligence. Ukraine intercepts all Russian missiles and most drones in overnight attack on air base. Ukraine's air defense intercepted five Kh-101 missiles and 11 Shahed-131/136 drones out of 19 launched by Russia, with eight other drones failing to reach targets. The assault focused on Starokostiantyniv's air base and caused no casualties or damage. As of 12 July 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

Personnel: 556650 (+1030)
Tanks: 8191 (+9)
APV: 15755 (+23)
Artillery systems: 15158 (+48)
MLRS: 1119
Anti-aircraft systems: 888 (+2)
Aircraft: 361
Helicopters: 326
UAV: 12035 (+26)
Cruise missiles: 2397 (+5)
Warships/boats: 28
Submarines: 1
Vehicles and fuel tanks: 20409 (+84)

Intelligence and technology

Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin says Russian missiles and drones contain foreign components from 19 countries. During a Eurojust meeting in The Hague, Prosecutor General Kostin stated that Russian missiles and UAVs incorporate foreign parts from countries such as China, South Korea, Germany, and the US. Five Italian companies join Ukraine's Defense Industries Alliance. This partnership aims to enhance Ukraine's military-industrial complex and support its defenses against Russia's war. Atesh partisans: Russia mines Novorossiysk harbor amid Ukraine's maritime drone threats

. An agent from the partisan movement "Atesh" has discovered that Russian landing ships are laying anchor-type mines at the entrance of the Novorossiysk seaport, a move driven by fears of Ukrainian maritime drones. US develops subsonic aviation munition with 250kg warhead for Ukraine. US Air Force initiates ERAM project to develop long-range aviation munition for Ukraine. Weapon specifications include 400km range, subsonic speed, 250kg warhead, and 10-meter accuracy. UK clarifies stance on Storm Shadow missiles, denies permission for use in Russia. The UK clarifies its policy on Storm Shadow missiles, denying permission for its use inside Russia. Zelenskyy backtracks on an earlier statement suggesting otherwise. Ukraine presents proof of Russian chemical warfare to international body. Ukraine's OPCW representative details Russia's violations of the Chemical Weapons Convention, presenting evidence of chemical weapons use against Ukrainian forces.

International

Zelenskyy: Security guarantees boost Ukraine's defenses, but NATO membership remains the goal. Ukraine has already concluded 23 strong security agreements with various countries. Australian police arrest couple accused of spying for Russia. Kira Koroleva, a 40-year-old Australian Defense Forces soldier, and her husband Igor Korolev, 62, have been arrested near Brisbane. Some EU states not to send ministers to presidency meetings in protest at Orban's Russia trip. A diplomatic protest is unfolding within the EU as six member states decide to boycott ministerial-level meetings during Hungary's presidency term in response to Viktor Orban's recent meeting with Vladimir Putin. NATO council: Ukraine to join when conditions met and allies agree

. NATO-Ukraine Council statement outlines support for Ukraine's defense and reforms, pledges long-term assistance, condemns Russian aggression, and confirms Ukraine's future NATO membership when allies agree and conditions are met. Australia pledges record military aid to Ukraine amid NATO summit. Australia announced a comprehensive $170 million military aid package for Ukraine at the NATO summit, including missiles, anti-tank weapons, and boots. Danish PM: Ukraine's strikes by Danish-supplied F-16 inside Russia depend on circumstances, must follow law. Ukraine's use of Danish F-16s for strikes in Russia depends on specific circumstances: all actions must comply with international law, targets can be reached outside Ukraine's borders, Danish PM Frederiksen says. Ukrainian railway operator increases number of trains with women-only compartments amid high demand. Responding to the growing popularity of its women-only compartments, Ukrzaliznytsia will add four more routes starting in August, ensuring more women can travel safely and comfortably. Moldova eases transit rules for Ukrainian grain bound for Romanian ports. Moldova simplifies Ukrainian grain transit to Romanian ports, waiving phytosanitary control to address border congestion due to increased goods flow from Ukraine.

Political and legal developments

The Great Escape: How Ukraine's ninth-richest man slipped out of the country amid fraud allegations. Ukraine's ninth-wealthiest man, Hennadiy Boholiubov, flees the country on a train using another man's passport. Although he has legal reasons to leave Ukraine due to his age, he allegedly escaped charges of embezzlement and fraud of billions of dollars. Read our earlier daily review here.