Exclusives
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What another Lukashenko ‘victory’ means for Europe’s security – and that of Belarus’ citizens. As ‘Europe’s last dictator’ claims his seventh electoral victory, the falsified win of Putin’s oldest ally brings new political risks — and unique security threats — for NATO and the West. |
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Russia caught presenting own Kursk losses as Ukrainian defeats, OSINT analysis shows. Russian losses are repurposed as Ukrainian defeats, a single damaged Challenger tank is spun into multiple victories, and old footage is rebranded as new losses—Russian propaganda accounts reached millions with fabricated evidence of Ukrainian setbacks. |
Military
Forbes: Ukrainian tank destroys Russian BMD at point-blank range in Chasiv Yar. In Chasiv Yar’s central district, Ukrainians showcased enhanced tank mobility enabled by drone superiority.
Frontline report: Ukraine wipes out three Russian air defense divisions in three days. Numerous Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s frontline air defenses created a dilemma for Moscow – leave its troops exposed or pull replacement systems from Russia, exposing deep rear facilities.
Forbes: Ukraine hits oil plant, crippling 5% of Russia’s refining capacity. Ukrainian drones hit Nizhny Novgorod Oil Refinery 800 km inside Russia, showcasing expanded strike capabilities and threatening Moscow’s crucial energy infrastructure.
As of 30 JAN 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
- Personnel: 835940 (+1270)
- Tanks: 9890 (+4)
- APV: 20614 (+17)
- Artillery systems: 22412 (+17)
- MLRS: 1264
- Anti-aircraft systems: 1050
- Aircraft: 369
- Helicopters: 331
- UAV: 23510 (+54)
- Cruise missiles: 3054
- Warships/boats: 28
- Submarines: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 35451 (+85)
Intelligence and Technology
Ukraine’s mobile radars outwit Russia’s jam-proof fiber-optic drones in latest interception. Ukrainian forces are racing to counter Russia’s fiber-optic drones, which evade jamming and detection. Mobile radar could mark a turning point in this high-tech war.
Ukrainian drones now carry 250 kg bombs. At least one Ukrainian drone, capable of delivering and precisely dropping an off-the-shelf FAB-250 bomb, was used in last night’s attack on a Russian oil pumping station.
Ukrainian cyber forces paralyze Gazprom’s digital services on Battle of Kruty anniversary. Ukrainian cyber forces strike Gazprom’s digital infrastructure on Battle of Kruty anniversary, disrupting fuel payments and customer services across Russia’s largest energy company.
Finnish-Ukrainian partnership unveils advanced anti-personnel drone tested in actual combat. Insta Defense’s new Steel Eagle ER (extended range) system can disperse over 3,000 steel and tungsten fragments across 2,000 square meters and penetrate light armor from altitude.
International
Kazakhstan begins historic oil shipments to Azerbaijan, bypassing Russian routes. Kazakhstan’s first Kashagan oil shipment through Azerbaijan marks a major shift in Central Asian energy routes, as the nation moves to reduce its dependence on Russian transit by over 80% through expanded pipeline partnerships.
Georgia quits PACE over calls for new elections and political prisoner release. Georgia’s pro-Russian ruling party announced it is suspending participation in the Assembly.
Sweden commits record $1.23 billion military aid to Ukraine with combat boats and missiles. Stockholm’s largest-ever military support package combines immediate battlefield resources with long-term production funding, expanding Ukraine’s naval capabilities while supporting domestic arms manufacturing.
German budget committee seeks approval for € 3 bn in Ukraine aid. Despite the SPD and Greens abstaining, Germany’s budget committee requested the finance minister’s approval for the military aid package.
EU discusses banning video game sales to Russia as part of new sanctions. Brussels would to restrict sales of PlayStation, Xbox and Nintendo consoles to Russia as part of new sanction measures.
EU officials back plan to restart Russian gas flows as part of Ukraine peace deal – FT. Germany and Hungary lead push to resume Russian gas flows despite opposition from eastern EU states.
Humanitarian and Social Impact
Death toll due to Russian strike on high-rise building in Sumy rises to 9. Nine people died, including three married couples, and fourteen were injured when a Russian Shahed drone struck a high-rise residential building in Sumy overnight.
Russia sentences Ukrainian aid driver who searched for his mother in occupied Kharkiv Oblast to 11 years. A humanitarian mission to find his mother in occupied territory led to Ivan Zabavskyi’s arrest by Russian forces.
Ukraine charges Russian soldier who kidnapped and kept Ukrainian woman prisoner in his apartment for over year. A Ukrainian woman survived more than a year of captivity in Russia after a soldier from Putin’s army abducted, raped, and imprisoned her in a Belgorod apartment.
Russian-ordered blast kills entrepreneur who helped Ukraine’s army in Odesa. Russia’s covert war in Ukraine extends beyond the battlefield—four men have been arrested for a brutal assassination in Odesa, luring their victim with arson before remotely detonating an explosive device.
Australian POW who was feared dead may be alive in Russian captivity. After weeks of speculation about death following a disturbing interrogation video, Australian Prime Minister acknowledged receiving Russian diplomatic notification that Oscar Jenkins remains alive in detention.
Political and Legal Developments
HUR: Russia plans to recruit 126,000 prisoners and debtors for war in Ukraine in 2025. Russia plans to recruit 126,000 prisoners and debtors in 2025 to replace war losses, targeting 10,000 ‘special contingent’ soldiers monthly amid intensified fighting in Ukraine.
Belarus recruits 486 “friendly” monitors after barring international observers – investigation. Over 90 politically biased observers, many facing criminal charges at home, were deployed to validate Belarus’s 2025 presidential election, a European democracy watchdog reports.
Ukrainian FM says Putin lies about his peace intentions, demands pressure on Moscow after Russian drone kills nine civilians in Sumy. Russian drone strike on Sumy residential building kills nine civilians, including elderly couples, wounds 13 others, as Ukraine’s Foreign Minister challenges Putin’s peace rhetoric.
55% of Russia’s chromium imports flow through Netherlands – study. Russia channeled $70 million worth of military-grade chromium through the Netherlands in 2023, tripling its artillery lifespan, a new investigation reveals.
Ukraine arrests $50 million worth of Russian oligarch Deripaska’s assets. Raw materials were stored at a Mykolaiv plant previously owned by Deripaska and were prepared for re-exporting to Russia via the EU.
ISW: Putin’s rejection of Zelenskyy’s legitimacy sets the stage for Russia to violate any future agreements. Putin’s false claims about Ukrainian law set conditions for Russia to break future agreements, according to a new ISW analysis.
New Developments
Decorated Russian skaters die in US plane crash. Skaters Evgeniya Shishkova and Vadim Naumov are among the victims of the tragedy in the US.
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