Exclusive
| Why Russia’s collapse is inevitable — and what comes next. Russia’s population shrinks by one million people annually, while its war in Ukraine drains the economy through military overspending and sanctions, creating the same institutional decay and elite conflicts that marked the Soviet collapse. |
Military
Frontline report: Ukraine launches unprecedented deep-strike operation on Russian territory, targeting critical military assets. By simultaneously targeting missile production facilities, aviation fuel depots, and energy infrastructure, Ukraine is degrading Russia’s warfighting capacity and exposing the vulnerability of its critical assets.
Ukraine strikes strategic Russian oil depots in Tula, Kaluga oblasts, fires erupt. At least ten Ukrainian drones successfully hit an oil storage facility supporting Russian forces in Tula Oblast, intelligence sources report.
As of 18 JAN 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
Intelligence and Technology
Estonian intelligence sees signs of Russia’s artillery problems. Russia’s increasing reliance on North Korean artillery systems and its inability to achieve battlefield superiority, despite tactical improvements, signals deepening problems in its military capabilities and staying power in Ukraine.
Finnish military revamps sniper training with lessons learned from Russo-Ukrainian War. Among other things, future training will increasingly include “dynamic shooting,” where participants move and shoot at moving targets.
UK Government: 30,000 new drones for Ukraine in boost to European security. These first-person view drones, designed to penetrate Russian air defenses, exemplify how Western allies are adapting their assistance to meet Ukraine’s evolving battlefield needs.
Forbes: Russia promises soldiers 10-day leave for capturing Ukrainian “Baba Yaga” drones it can’t build. The $20,000 heavy Ukrainian UAVs have so rattled Russian defenses that commanders offer extended leave bounties while technicians refurbish captured drones for their own use.
Ukraine’s sanctions chief says foreign parts found in all Russian weapons. Ukraine identifies 2,800 foreign components in Russian weapons systems as sanctions pressure mounts, forcing Chinese manufacturers to halt supplies amid Moscow’s growing isolation.
International
Russia: We will counter any UK-Ukraine cooperation in Sea of Azov. Britain’s new 100-year partnership with Ukraine has drawn sharp rebuke from Moscow, with Russia asserting exclusive control over the Sea of Azov despite its internationally recognized status as shared waters.
Bavarian far-right AfD leader calls for immediate expulsion of Ukrainian refugees. According to the German news outlet, that would mean 1.2 million people across Germany, most of them women and children, and up to 200,000 people in Bavaria.
German pro-Russian Wagenknecht calls for end to Ukraine arms deliveries in exchange for ceasefire. German politician Sahra Wagenknecht calls three billion euros in planned Ukraine aid “irresponsible” in a new interview.
ISW: Russia signs strategic partnership with Iran amid military constraints. Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive partnership agreement that notably excludes mutual defense commitments, signaling Moscow’s limited military capacity beyond Ukraine.
Humanitarian and Social Impact
Number of injured due to Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia increases to 10 people. Eight people were hospitalized and two received on-site treatment after a Russian missile hit an infrastructure facility and the centre of the city of Zaporizhzhia.
Russian ballistic morning attack on Kyiv kills 3, injures 3. Russian forces launched a combined drone and missile attack on Kyiv early Thursday, leaving casualties, damaging water supply pipeline.
Ukraine’s FM: Russia’s morning attacks on Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia further prove Putin does not want peace. Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga demanded increased pressure on Russia following a deadly missile attack on Kyiv.
Read our earlier daily review here.
