Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1020: Ukraine’s “Sea Baby” marine drones damage Russian helicopters near Crimea

Exclusives

Cold War lessons show why West must abandon "escalation management" now. The Cuban Missile Crisis proved firm boundaries contained Soviet expansion - but today's cautious deterrence approach achieves the opposite effect, with political transitions in 2024 leaving a narrowing window to apply these historical lessons.

Russia's African presence at risk from potential Syria naval base loss, expert says. H.I.Sutton says the loss of Tartus would threaten Russia's Mediterranean naval task force presence and ability to support its military operations in Africa.

Assad's fall makes a mockery of Putin. But it may not be all doom and gloom for Putin's regime - or his war on Ukraine

Military

Frontline report: Ukrainian precision strike halts North Korean deployment. Fifty Koksan howitzers rolled into the Kursk Oblast on rail, signaling North Korea's first confirmed direct military support for Russian operations in Ukraine. Ukraine's "Sea Baby" marine drones, armed with heavy-caliber machine guns, damage Russian helicopters near Crimea. The operation also targets equipment for the repair of the Crimean Bridge. Russia advances on Pokrovsk amid troop shortage and equipment losses. Ukrainian defense analysts predict Russia will fail to capture key fortress cities in Donetsk Oblast despite recent tactical gains near Pokrovsk. Russians forces advance near five settlements in Donetsk Oblast – Deep State. Russian troops have captured nearly 235 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in a single week, marking a significant escalation. As of 9 DEC 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 754590 (+1220)
• Tanks: 9519
• APV: 19589 (+18)
• Artillery systems: 21061 (+3)
• MLRS: 1253
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1023
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 20093 (+22)
• Cruise missiles: 2859 (+2)
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 30989 (+24)

Intelligence and Technology

Germany and United States to join forces to develop unified drone control program for Ukraine's Armed Forces. A new unified software platform promises to simplify complex unmanned aerial system management as Ukraine deploys over 200 different drone models. Energoatom unveils plans to build small nuclear reactors across Ukraine amid Russian attacks. The initiative aims to decentralize power generation while addressing the challenges of wartime resilience.

International

Zelenskyy signals openness to foreign troops in Ukraine providing security for end to war. With a focus on peace and NATO membership, President Zelenskyy weighs the idea of foreign troops for security until the war is officially ended. Scholz's rival Merz hints at giving Tauruses to Kyiv. Zelenskyy to Trump and Macron: Putin doesn't want to end war. Only a strong Ukraine can facilitate a ceasefire Candidate for German chancellorship from conservative bloc came to Kyiv. Friedrich Merz, potential future German chancellor, arrived in Kyiv to evaluate Ukraine's defensive capabilities.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Edinburgh Council leader suspended as allegations of inappropriate behavior toward Ukrainian refugees surface. Cammy Day faces an investigation while police and consulate officials express concern over his actions. Some 4.2 million Ukrainians hold temporary protection status in EU, Eurostat reports. Eurostat data reveals Ukrainian women and children constitute nearly 77% of EU temporary protection beneficiaries. Russia launches 37 drones across Ukraine, targeting infrastructure of private companies in Vinnytsia. Ukrainian air defense successfully neutralized 18 of 37 Russian drones launched overnight, preventing widespread damage.

Political and Legal Developments

Ex-President Poroshenko confident war can be stopped in 24 hours. He outlines his vision in an interview with Voice of America Crimean Tatar leader says Russia must face justice for war crimes in Ukraine on genocide victims commemoration day. Refat Chubarov demands stronger international measures to hold Russia accountable for atrocities in Ukraine. Former prison colony head allegedly killed in targeted vehicle bombing in occupied Donetsk. Serhii Yevsyukov, suspected of war crimes in the Olenivka prisoner massacre, died in a car explosion that critically injured his wife.

New Developments

Ukraine's interception rates soar as allies send more air defenses against Russian targets. While Ukraine receives additional air defense support from its partners, the ongoing Russian attacks highlight the urgent need for effective protection against aerial threats. Russia to return to Syria, Africa if Ukraine falls, says Zelenskyy. President Zelensky stresses the need for unity among global partners to halt Russian aggression in Ukraine and stop its expansion into other states. Pentagon: Russia lost 700,000 people since February 2022 and spent over $ 200 bn on war. In a landmark speech, Pentagon chief reveals the unprecedented human and financial cost of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. WSJ: Russia launches four times more missiles and drones at Ukraine this fall compared to last year. Russia fired more than 6,000 explosive drones and missiles against Ukraine in September, October, and November Read our earlier daily review here