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Ukraine flipped the drone math—and Russia's assault tempo just stopped buying ground. Russia pressed every Donbas sector in April, with assault tempo at a two-month high. The territorial line moved the wrong way anyway—and Ukrainian intelligence figures show the cost per kilometer of Donetsk soil has nearly tripled in a year. |
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Europe spent two years waiting for US Tomahawks. Ukraine spent them building its own.. Trump pulled the Tomahawks. Yet Kyiv has opened the export door. |
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Ukraine's E-300 drone bombers come home full of bullet holes—and fly out again tomorrow. Ukraine's middle- and deep-strike sorties have multiplied six-fold in 10 months — and Russia's spring advance shrank 60%. |
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Irish Cabinet defends alumina exports to Russia by citing refugees—then evicts 16,000 of them. 27 days between defending the trade and evicting the refugees. |
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Ukrainian troops lay out what defense companies get wrong—and right. Companies have 3-4 months to make their tech work to keep up with innovation cycle. |
Military
Mobilization gap: Russia now losing more troops than it can replace, for fifth month running. Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov calls it the "mathematics of war", and it is turning decisively against Russia.
Ukraine hit VNIIR-Progress in Cheboksary — plant behind GPS components in Russia's Shaheds and glide bombs. The plant manufactures "Kometa" adaptive antenna arrays. Without them, Russia's precision weapons become significantly less precise.
Ukraine did math on Tuapse — and Russian reaction tells rest. Ukraine's drones hit Tuapse four times in a single month. Each strike deepening the wound on Russia's only Black Sea oil refinery.
National Guard's Omega unit downs $100,000 Russian Knyaz Veshchiy Oleg recon drone. Ukraine's National Guard Omega unit has destroyed a $100,000 Russian Knyaz Veshchiy Oleg recon drone — the fourth such UAV downed in 2026.
Intelligence and technology
Problem with Ukraine's 25,000 combat robots isn't hardware — it's keeping them connected on battlefield. A brief loss of connection does not mean the robot pauses gracefully.
US decision not to deploy Tomahawks to Germany was even worse than withdrawal of 5,000 US troops. But Ukraine can help. Three years of full-scale war have made Ukraine's defense industry one of the most combat-experienced on the planet.
International
Russia recruited 994 Armenians for its war. Yerevan is pivoting west anyway.. 994 contracts. 204 dead or missing. The country that wouldn't defend Armenia in Karabakh is now extracting Armenian lives at industrial scale.
FP: Patriot supplies to Ukraine hinge on the war in Iran, which has already drained nearly half of the US stockpile. Foreign Policy reports US officials see Ukraine as unable to last two days without aid, as the Iran war drains the Patriot stockpile and clouds the PURL program.
Canada adds 12.4 mn euros to Ukraine Energy Support Fund, total passes 57 mn. Equipment worth around 260 mn euros is already in transit to Ukraine, with delivery expected before temperatures drop.
Russia will be combat-ready again by 2027 — Estonia's military chief sets a two-year clock for NATO. Estonia's defense forces commander Andrus Merilo says Russia will be combat-ready by 2027 and outlines five areas where Estonia must prepare for war.
After Russia unilaterally announced 9 May ceasefire to hold parade, Zelenskyy set Ukraine's silence regime to start three days earlier. The announcement existed on Russian social media. Not in diplomatic channels.
Russia and "those sympathetic to it" will try to force Ukraine into capitulation this summer – source in Ukraine's presidential circle. Russia demands control over Donbas, where 200,000 civilians still live.
Humanitarian and social impact
While Russia talks about 9 May ceasefire, its guided bombs just killed 12 people in Zaporizhzhia. There was no military infrastructure at the targets. The impact zones were businesses and homes.
Russia struck a Poltava gas site overnight — then hit the DSNS rescuers responding to the fire. Russia struck a Poltava gas facility overnight on 5 May with Iskander missiles, then hit SES rescuers at the scene. Five killed, 37 injured.
"Anyone who tries to break through, we will shoot" — a Ukrainian sailor describes two months at anchor in the Strait of Hormuz. A Ukrainian chief mate describes two months stranded near the Strait of Hormuz: a $2mn passage toll, $13,000 water deliveries, and Iranian warnings over VHF radio.
Kim Jong Un urges North Korean youth aged 14 to 30 to fight for Russia after losing 6,000 troops in Kursk. At a Pyongyang youth congress, Kim Jong Un cast 14- to 30-year-olds as the "vanguard" of state goals while the ruling party praised dead soldiers in Russia's war as "bombs and flames."
Political and legal developments
Ukraine jails European ex-instructor for 8.5 years after FSB recruited him through pro-Kremlin forums. Ukraine has jailed a foreign ex-military instructor for 8.5 years after Russia's FSB recruited him through pro-Kremlin forums to spy on training centers and plan terror attacks.
Belarus is building training grounds, transport hubs, and logistical routes — Ukraine says Russia could use them for offensive at any time. "At any moment, all this infrastructure that Belarus is creating can be used by Russia."
New developments
Eurovision 2026 final lineup confirmed — two Ukrainian winners join Lordi, Rybak, and Kostov in Vienna. Ruslana and Verka Serduchka will perform at the Eurovision 2026 final in Vienna on 16 May as part of the contest's 70th anniversary reunion show.
Ukrainian soldier stumbled into a Russian dugout. Two weeks later he walked out with a POW. A wounded Ukrainian corporal spent 14 days unarmed beside an armed captor. The captor surrendered.
Ukraine is building multi-layered shield along border with Russian-occupied Transnistria — 50 km from biggest port city. Russian Troops have been stationed there since 1992.
Read our earlier daily review here.
