Mobilization gap: Russia now losing more troops than it can replace, for fifth month running

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov calls it the “mathematics of war”, and it is turning decisively against Russia.
Explosion from Ukrainian drone strike targeting a Russian FSB facility in occupied Donetsk, 22 April 2026. Screenshot from video: Robert
Explosion from Ukrainian drone strike targeting a Russian FSB facility in occupied Donetsk, 22 April 2026. Screenshot from video: Robert “Madyar” Brovdi.
Mobilization gap: Russia now losing more troops than it can replace, for fifth month running

Ukraine recorded large-scale Russian losses with 35,203 soldiers killed or seriously wounded in April. All strikes were confirmed with battlefield video footage, strengthening the evidentiary base for each elimination, says Ukrainian Minister of Defense Mykhailo Fedorov. 

Russia has been unable to compensate for its losses through mobilization for five consecutive months, and this gap is only widening.

35,203 losses in one month, but numbers predict even more pressure

“Over April, 35,203 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously wounded — all strikes confirmed on video,” Fedorov states.

According to Fedorov, the key indicator is not only monthly losses but also the enemy's systemic exhaustion, as it loses more personnel than it can replace.

Ukraine is already declaring a strategic goal of reaching 50,000 enemy losses per month, which would disrupt the Russian offensive's pace.

Russia fails for fifth month to replace its battlefield losses

From December to April, Russia mobilized 148,400 people, but verified losses from drone strikes amount to 156,735 personnel according to the Delta system, ArmyInform reports.

This creates a critical imbalance that could gradually degrade Russia’s ability to regenerate combat forces.

What happens when strikes 20 kilometers behind the front suddenly double?

In April, a sharp rise in mid-range strikes, with attacks at 20–150 km, was recorded. Their number doubled compared to March and was four times higher than in February, indicating a systemic increase in deep-strike capability.

Warehouses, command posts, air defense systems, and logistical nodes were targeted. This directly reduces the resilience of Russian frontline units and accelerates their attrition.

“We see the results of each unit in real time, and scale the most effective practices across the entire military. I thank the Security and Defense Forces for their systematic work,” said Ukraine’s Minister of Defense.

Separately, large-scale use of ground robotic systems was documented with 10,281 logistics and evacuation missions in a single month, significantly reducing risks to Ukrainian soldiers and increasing operational efficiency.

Fedorov described these processes as a “mathematics of war,” where technology, data, and decision speed determine battlefield outcomes.

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