In June–July, Ukraine may be pressured into capitulation, according to a source close to the president, RBC-Ukraine reports. Russia is currently pressuring Ukraine, demanding that it hand over Donbas, where 200,000 civilians live, to its control.
Transferring these people under Russian control would mean inevitable casualties, deportations, and militarization.
In addition, the seizure of these territories without security guarantees would allow Russia to accumulate resources and launch renewed attacks from a “fortress belt” that has helped Ukraine hold two regions for more than 12 years.
Attempts to pressure Ukraine at previous negotiation stage
“At the previous stage of negotiations, there was an attempt to push Ukraine into some form of territorial surrender, which we did not agree to,” a source in the presidential circle said.
However, according to an informed source cited by the publication, a new phase is now emerging — an attempt by the Americans to “sell” sanctions relief in exchange for vague Russian concessions, in particular a ceasefire without guarantees.
Strategy: outlasting the opponent
At present, Ukraine’s overall strategy remains unchanged, consistent with a war of attrition to outlast the opponent.
More specifically, to strengthen itself and weaken the enemy to the point where Russia is no longer able to continue the war for economic reasons.
When budget gaps and growing internal dissatisfaction can no longer be suppressed by cutting internet access or propaganda on federal television.
Pressure on Ukraine without security guarantees
“We know that in June–July there may be many challenges due to another attempt by Russians and those sympathetic to them to pressure Ukraine into agreeing to a settlement favorable to Putin,” a source in the presidential circle told the outlet.
Accordingly, the more effective the military reforms are, the stronger Ukraine’s diplomatic position will be in the face of potential pressure.
If over the next year the Defense Forces manage to further exhaust Russian forces on the battlefield while preventing them from capturing Donetsk Oblast, Moscow may reduce its demands and agree to a lesser outcome, such as ending the war along the line of contact (without legal recognition of occupied territories by Ukraine).
At least, according to sources cited by RBC-Ukraine, this view exists within the Presidential Office, although not everyone there agrees with it.
“Such a compromise, together with Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU, could be acceptable to society. It could later allow President Zelenskyy to run for elections,” one of the interlocutors noted.
For the Kremlin, it is also important to reach an agreement while US President Donald Trump is still in the White House.
