Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1121: Russia keeps attacking Ukraine despite peace push

Exclusives

The art of Putin's deal. Russia gained more from limited energy ceasefire, experts say. Putin's diplomatic masterclass secured protection for Russian oil refineries while giving up almost nothing in return, leaving Trump with a hollow victory and Ukraine increasingly vulnerable.

After Kursk withdrawal, Ukraine launches surprise offensive in Russia's Belgorod. In a swift reversal, Ukraine's new Belgorod operation goes from being labeled a fabrication to a strategic counteroffensive against Russia's growing troop presence.

Ukraine could have built anti-Putin Russia in Kursk but didn't. That was a mistake. Russian opposition fighters stood ready to establish an alternative political presence in Kursk, but Ukraine never engaged these willing allies.

Military

ISW: Ukrainians advance in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, Russians in Donetsk. Ukrainian forces also made gains near Donetsk's Pokrovsk. Russian advances are reported near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian Air Force eliminates key Russian command center coordinating Sumy attacks. As Russian sources report Ukrainian ground movements in Belgorod's Krasnoyaruzhsky district, the Ukrainian military has conducted a precision strike against a critical command node supporting operations along the northeastern front. Explosions and fire reported at Russia's Engels-2 strategic bomber base after SBU drone assault (video). As of 13:30, fires and explosions continued to rage at the airbase following the early morning attack. ISW: Russia and Ukraine have not finalized long-range strikes ceasefire. Putin deliberately creates confusion regarding the ceasefire timing and details, attempting to blame Ukraine for violations before formal implementation. Frontline report: US policy shift sparks surge in foreign support for Ukraine's defense. Thousands of foreign soldiers have joined Ukraine's defense, spurred by frustration over US policy shift towards Russia. Swarm of drones: Russia keeps attacking Ukraine despite peace push. As of 20 MAR 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 899470 (+1400)
• Tanks: 10377 (+13)
• APV: 21561 (+38)
• Artillery systems: 24747 (+43)
• MLRS: 1322 (+2)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1110
• Aircraft: 370
• Helicopters: 331
• UAV: 29895 (+179)
• Cruise missiles : 3121
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 41094 (+91)

Intelligence and Technology

Forbes: Ukrainian HIMARS strike may have damaged three North Korean howitzers. The Ukrainian 14th UAV Regiment located three North Korean M1989 170-millimeter howitzers in Kursk Oblast, enabling a HIMARS strike that deployed submunitions over the artillery positions. Ukraine's FrankenBuk air defense system combines Soviet Buk-M1 with Western Sea Sparrow missiles. This modification allows Ukraine to maintain defensive capabilities while shifting away from diminishing Soviet-era missile stocks. More F-16 jets arrive in Ukraine, Zelenskyy confirms. Ukraine's Air Force received an unspecified number of additional F-16s, with Zelenskyy refuting Russian propaganda claims that any aircraft had been shot down in Sumy Oblast. US Space Force reveals Chinese satellites performing "dogfighting" maneuvers in orbit. Five Chinese experimental satellites have demonstrated synchronized orbital maneuvers, which are regarded as potential threats to global communications networks relied upon by billions.

International

Expert: EU integrates Ukraine into European defense framework with € 150 billion investment. The European Commission's new defense strategy transforms Ukraine from aid recipient to security partner, with €150 billion allocated to fast-track defense capabilities and industrial cooperation. Nausėda: Lithuania has "4-5 years" to prepare for possible Russian attack. Lithuanian President warns of potential Russian offensive against NATO by 2030, reveals country is building a national division and has "4-5 years" to prepare unless sanctions on Russia are lifted. Starmer calls new Trident submarines as "incredibly effective" nuclear deterrent against Putin. The UK Prime Minister's comments come as European nations increasingly debate the future of continental security arrangements and France offers to expand its nuclear umbrella within Europe. Warsaw joins Baltic States in exiting Ottawa landmine treaty, struggles to find new supply. While adhering to humanitarian law, Poland plans to restore its anti-personnel mine capabilities, possibly relying on Ukraine as a supplier. ISW: Kremlin demands Ukraine give up territory Russia doesn't control. As Russia seeks to exclude Ukraine and Europe, the US, Ukraine, and Europe maintain a unified position on their essential role in peace talks to resolve the war. UK to host closed meeting on Ukraine peacekeeping force. Britain convenes military officials from over 20 countries to advance Ukraine peacekeeping plans, despite Putin's opposition.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russian drones injure 10 in Kropyvnytskyi, other strikes kill at least five other civilians. Russia targeted not only cities, but also railway power infrastructure in Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. RFE/RL: US cuts funding for Yale research about Ukrainian children deportations to Russia. Yale Humanitarian Research Lab experts were cut off from their extensive three-year archive documenting Ukrainian children forcibly taken to Russia, according to the executive director.

Political and Legal Developments

After failed mineral deal, Trump proposes US takeover of Ukrainian nuclear plants. The US now pressures Kyiv to hand over control of nuclear power plants, disguising the takeover attempt as protection from Russian attacks. Minnesota senator who sought to label Trump critics as "mentally ill" arrested for soliciting minor. Justin Eichorn believed he was communicating with a 17-year-old but was instead corresponding with law enforcement officers. Read our earlier daily review here