Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1059: Russian propaganda continues to infiltrate European institutions

Exclusives

Why Russia's collapse is inevitable — and what comes next. Russia's population shrinks by one million people annually, while its war in Ukraine drains the economy through military overspending and sanctions, creating the same institutional decay and elite conflicts that marked the Soviet collapse.

The making of Euromaidan Press: from Maidan to global media platform. What is Euromaidan Press, anyway? Here's your chance to find out

Military

Forbes: Russian tank dies lonely death in broad daylight as five Ukrainian drones strike. Russian military bloggers derided commanders as "geniuses" after a lone tank near besieged Pokrovsk met five Ukrainian drones, each executing their part in its destruction. Russian oil depot burns for fourth day after two Ukrainian drone strikes on Engels. Russian oil depot in Engels continues burning after two Ukrainian drone strikes destroy 800,000-ton fuel storage capacity, creating significant logistics problems for Russian military operations. Frontline report: North Koreans face catastrophic losses near Kruglenkoe as Ukrainians reclaim positions. Ukrainian special forces successfully clear North Korean positions near Kruglenkoe using advanced thermal imaging and coordinated attacks. ISW: All 12,000 North Korean troops in Kursk may be lost by April 2025. Since escalating to significant combat operations in December, North Koreans have experienced substantial losses, averaging 92 casualties daily. As of 17 JAN 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 815820 (+1670)
• Tanks: 9803 (+12)
• APV: 20381 (+13)
• Artillery systems: 22019 (+4)
• MLRS: 1262
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1046
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 331
• UAV: 22566 (+63)
• Cruise missiles: 3049
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 34256 (+124)

Intelligence and Technology

NYT: US reveals previously classified support for Ukrainian drone development. The outgoing US Biden Administration declassified the extensive contributions to Ukraine's drone program, including funding, intelligence sharing, and tech support. Netherlands purchases replacements for Patriot system components given to Ukraine. The Dutch military has ordered Patriot air defense system components worth $529 million from Raytheon to replace equipment transferred to Ukraine. Russian online recruitment of intel gatherers across Europe revealed by investigation. The coordinated Russian intelligence gathering operation via Telegram recruits Europe's Russian-speakers for collecting sensitive military info.

International

French, Danish shipyards enable Russian Arctic gas exports through winter. European shipyards maintain critical Russian LNG tankers that transport Arctic gas during peak winter demand, exposing a significant gap in Western sanctions as Moscow continues accessing lucrative energy markets. Politico: Starmer says Ukraine needs strong position before any Trump-brokered peace deal with Russia. UK PM Starmer calls for increased European support to strengthen Ukraine's position ahead of potential Trump-led peace negotiations, discussing British peacekeeping role in future settlement. World Bank projects 2% growth for Ukraine in 2025 despite ongoing war. Despite showing resilience with projected 2% growth in 2025, Ukraine's economy faces a lengthy path to recovery, with pre-invasion GDP levels not expected until 2030 due to widespread infrastructure damage and hostilities. Ukrainian supporters to rally in Bologna after Russian propaganda found in Italian textbooks. Ukrainian groups expose Russian propaganda in Italian education system and media, organizing Bologna protest as Kremlin influence operations target schools, exhibitions, and textbooks. Finnish party expels candidate for echoing Kremlin's Ukraine war language. Finland's political establishment continues to purge candidates who adopt Russian propaganda terminology, as the Left Alliance becomes the second party to remove a candidate for minimizing Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Slovak opposition party leader meets Zelenskyy over energy crisis as PM Fico turns to Moscow. As Slovakia grapples with energy security following Ukraine's halt of Russian gas transit, opposition leader Šimečka seeks cooperation with Kyiv while Prime Minister Fico faces a no-confidence vote over his Moscow-friendly stance. Blinken: Trump administration could help Ukraine "negotiate good deal". Any ceasefire agreement in Ukraine must include strong deterrence measures to prevent future Russian attacks, Secretary of State Blinken said on 16 Jan. Yermak: Zelenskyy-Trump meeting to happen "very soon". Ukrainian officials plan to initiate formal consultations with the Trump administration immediately following the inauguration ceremony, particularly regarding the battlefield situation. Estonian capital allocates € 200,000 for Ukrainian cities development. Tallinn city introduces a development program supporting Ukrainian municipalities with aid, expertise sharing, and EU integration initiatives. German FM criticizes her government's hesitancy on Ukraine support. Baerbock confronts the government's cautious approach, highlighting internal divisions and political disagreements over funding mechanisms amid the election campaign.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russian drone attack injures boy, 12, in Kyiv Oblast, damages Izmail river port, hits Romania. At least seven Shaheds and two missiles might have penetrated the Ukrainian air defenses.

Political and Legal Developments

FT: EU eyes Belgian king as Hungary threatens to block Russia sanctions renewal. A royal WWII decree is considered a fallback option to retain Russia's frozen €190 bn in the EU if pro-Russian Budapest vetoes sanctions renewal. Banned Russian diplomats infiltrate UK parliament's private area. Russian diplomats, banned from UK Parliament since 2022, breached security by separating from a public tour group to access restricted areas of the House of Lords, prompting renewed security warnings to British lawmakers. Putin aide's Ukraine threat reveals Russia's persistent effort to erase Ukrainian identity. Russia's campaign to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty extends beyond military action, as top officials systematically deploy Nazi-themed propaganda to justify aggression. Ukraine wants just peace, won't accept "peace at any price," UN envoy says. "Peace through strength is the only effective tool to stop the aggressor and ensure a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace," Kyslytsya says.

New Developments

After Mariupol Oscar win, new Ukraine war film advances at BAFTA awards. Ukrainian-British short film about medic's son fighting Russian forces nominated for BAFTA award. Read our earlier daily review here