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Russo-Ukrainian war, day 827: Western allies shift stance, allowing Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia

This represents a loosening of previous restrictions amid Ukraine’s escalating cross-border attacks.
Russo-Ukrainian war, day 827: Western allies shift stance, allowing Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia

Exclusives

Echoes of Yanukovych-era state censorship rock Ukrainian state media Ukrinform. Oleksii Matsuka, now finds himself at the center of a censorship scandal that has rocked Ukraine’s state news agency, Ukrinform, during his brief but tumultuous tenure as director general.
Belarusian “unfinished revolution” resists from the shadows, awaiting window of opportunity. The Belarusian opposition’s “unfinished revolution” persists in the shadows, biding its time for an opportune moment to reignite its struggle against the Lukashenko regime.
A realistic victory strategy for Ukraine. In a war where offensive operations are equally difficult on both sides, not losing is already winning in the next year and a half.

Military

Frontline battles continue: Ukrainian forces repel Russian advances. On the Kramatorsk front, Ukrainian forces are engaged in a battle near Andriivka village, with Russians attempting to breach defenses eight times. Despite this, Ukrainian control remains firm.

HUR: Ukrainian sea drones sink two Russian naval boats (video). Ukrainian naval drones operated by intelligence forces struck and destroyed two Russian KS-701 Tunets patrol boats near occupied Crimea’s Chornomorsk, HUR says.

As of 30 May 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

  • Personnel: 506260 (+1160)
  • Tanks: 7710 (+10)
  • APV: 14913 (+22)
  • Artillery systems: 13101 (+35)
  • MLRS: 1088 (+1)
  • Anti-aircraft systems: 815
  • Aircraft: 357
  • Helicopters: 326
  • UAV: 10532 (+22)
  • Cruise missiles: 2222
  • Warships/boats: 27
  • Submarines: 1
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 17849 (+53)

Intelligence and technology

Ukrainian, French cyber experts disable Russian hacker infrastructure during “EndGame” international operation. The offensive cyber operation targeted systems being used by Russian cybercriminal groups to launch ransomware attacks, steal data, and conduct other malicious activities.

Sweden’s ASC 890 aircraft to boost Ukraine’s defense against Russian targets. Sweden’s new military aid package, valued at 13.3 billion kronor, includes the ASC 890 aircraft to help Ukraine detect enemy missiles and aircraft.

ISW: Russia exploits POW swaps to undermine support for Ukraine. Russia’s accusations against Ukraine are seen as a tactic to obscure its own war crimes and disrupt Ukrainian decision-making.

International

FT: US, Ukraine to sign security pact ahead of Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. The deal, expected to be the most significant among Ukraine’s agreements with NATO countries, will outline long-term support, including military training, intelligence sharing, and economic assistance. It will be signed ahead of the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on 15-16 June.

Ukrainians urged Brazil’s president to participate in Global Peace Summit in Switzerland in June 2024. The Ukrainian World Congress and Ukrainian-Brazilian Central Representation urge President Lula da Silva to attend the June peace talks in Switzerland, which would promote a unified effort to end the war in Ukraine.

Humanitarian and social impact

Ukraine downs 7/19 Russian missiles, 32/32 drones as Russian attacks injure 15 civilians. Russian attacks injured at least 15 civilians across Ukraine over the past day. In the morning, Ukraine downed seven cruise missiles and all 32 Russo-Iranian Shahed drones.

Media: Two Russian Kerch strait ferries damaged in last night’s attack. Explosions rocked occupied eastern Crimea with reports of Russian ferries and boats damaged by missile debris after occupation authorities halted traffic across Kerch Bridge.

Denmark allows Ukraine to use F-16s against military targets within Russia, dismisses Russian threats. Denmark’s foreign minister says Ukraine can attack Russian military assets with Danish F-16 fighters, brushing off Moscow’s threats of retaliation as mere “propaganda war”.

Germany permits Ukraine to hit Russian territory with German weapons. Germany is cautiously allowing Ukraine to use German-supplied weapons to hit military targets inside Russia, signaling a shift from previous reservations.

Blinken hints US may accept Ukrainian strikes in Russia with American arms. In comments during his Moldova visit, US State Secretary Blinken suggested the US could “adapt and adjust” its position, potentially tolerating Ukraine’s use of US-made weapons for attacks against targets within Russia’s borders.

New developments

A realistic victory strategy for Ukraine. In a war where offensive operations are equally difficult on both sides, not losing is already winning in the next year and a half.

Read our earlier daily review here.

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