Russo-Ukrainian war, day 594: Germany announces €1 billion military aid package for Ukraine, Zelenskyy visits Romania

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Six parallels of the wars in Israel and Ukraine. Lack of earlier intervention by the international community contributed both to the latest escalation between Israel and Hamas and Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Military

General Staff: Ukrainian troops destroy Russian Su-25 fighter jet. Ukrainian Army took down a jet worth around $15 million and repelled massive Russian counterattacks on eastern and southern fronts. More tanks, anti-aircraft units in Germany’s EUR 1 billion aid package for Ukraine. “With this new ‘winter package,’ we are further increasing the operational readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces in the coming months,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. Military analysis: Mud season could aid Ukraine’s offensive on southern front. While Russia hopes the mud will halt Ukrainian progress, this year's meteorological and soil factors suggest that the Ukrainian offensive on the southern front has the potential to intensify. Rheinmetall receives “mid-triple-digit million euro” order for artillery ammo for Ukraine. Rheinmetall, the German arms manufacturer, has secured another substantial order to provide over 100,000 shells for Ukraine. Ukraine to spend over 20% of its GDP on defense. Ukraine has unprecedentedly increased national defense spending in 2024 to repel Russian invasion. Frontline report: Russia failed to capture Novomykhaylivka, which Ukraine holds for over a year. With the help of the extensive minefields, Ukrainian defenders destroyed three Russian tanks and three armored vehicles in defeating a Russian repeated assault on Novomykhaylivka, Donetsk Oblast. ISW: Ukrainian forces gain amid worsening weather. Despite weather conditions deteriorating, including decreased visibility, Ukraine made advances in its counteroffensive in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of 10 Oct 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 28308 (+450)
    • Tanks: 4829 (+6)
    • APV: 9129 (+3)
    • Artillery systems: 6713 (+7)
    • MLRS: 808
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 544 (+1)
    • Aircraft: 315
    • Helicopters: 316
    • UAV: 5207 (+17)
    • Cruise missiles: 1530
    • Warships/boats: 20
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 9125 (+12)
    • Special equipment 961 (+2)

Intelligence and technology

Ukraine rolls out secure radio to counter Russian electronic warfare. The HIMERA radio utilizes advanced Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum (FHSS) technology to counter Russia's electronic warfare tactics effectively, creating a nearly undetectable communication system. British intel: Putin to avoid unpopular moves ahead of re-election bid. The Kremlin may postpone any new mobilization drives until after Russia's March 2024 presidential vote, as new call-up could prove politically damaging.

International

Russia’s bid for UN Human Rights Council membership fails. Russia falls short of the votes required to join the Human Rights Council for the 2024-2026 term. Zelenskyy gets Romania’s support for F-16 training initiative. Despite a cancelled speech before the Romanian Parliament due to "possible disruptions by MPs with pro-Russian sympathies," Romania has agreed to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16. UEFA revokes decision allowing Russian youth teams to play in international tournaments. UEFA backtracked on its plan after 12 of 55 member federations vowed to boycott games against Russian teams, participating in the European Championships. Zelenskyy visits Romania to discuss support and minorities’ rights. Ukrainian and Romanian leaders also plan to discuss strengthening Ukraine's defenses and addressing Black Sea security during Zelenskyy's diplomatic trip.

Humanitarian and social impact

MFA: Diplomats locate seven missing Ukrainians in Israel. Ukraine's embassy in Israel reported that around 300 Ukrainians cannot leave the country, while about 150 cannot leave the Gaza Strip.

Political and legal developments

Bulgaria busts criminal group smuggling military components to Russia. Bulgarian authorities arrested 12 people for illegally exporting dual-use goods to support the Russian war effort in Ukraine. Zelenskyy signs law on reinstating officials’ asset declarations. After a pause due to Russia's invasion, Ukraine opens the access to e-declaration, the State Anti-Corruption Program, which is necessary, in particular, to start EU accession negotiations.

New developments

Russia is interested in inciting war in the Middle East, Zelenskyy says. The war between Israel and Palestine may help Russia weaken global unity. Russian and Belarusian special services plotting false flag operation in Belarus. The Ukrainian Center of National Resistance warns that Russia and Belarus could bomb an oil depot to blame Ukraine for a terrorist attack. Read our earlier daily review here.