Russian forces in Kherson Oblast’s east likely partially vulnerable to Ukrainian interdiction campaign – ISW

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In its November 17 Russian offensive campaign assessment, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War says that Russian forces in eastern Kherson Oblast are likely partially vulnerable to a Ukrainian interdiction campaign such as the one Ukrainian forces successfully exploited to retake western Kherson Oblast.

Several major ground lines of communication (GLOCs) run through eastern Kherson Oblast into other Russian-controlled areas in southern Ukraine: the southern T2202 Nova Kahkovka-Armiansk route, the southeastern P47 Kakovkha-Henichesk route, and the M14 highway that runs eastward into Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol.

Geolocated satellite imagery indicates that Russian troops are establishing defensive positions along some of these critical GLOCs, and social media reporting indicates that Ukrainian strikes have already begun targeting Russian concentration areas and military assets on these routes.

The limited number of high-quality roads and railways in this area, particularly connecting Crimea to the mainland, creates potential bottlenecks that could be vulnerable to Ukrainian interdiction efforts that would gradually degrade the Russian ability to continue supplying its grouping in eastern Kherson Oblast and other areas of southern Ukraine.

ISW previously reported the targeting of similar bottlenecks along key GLOCS–not just the bridges across the Dnipro River–during Ukraine’s Kherson counteroffensive in late August to mid-October culminated in the Russian withdrawal from the west bank of Kherson Oblast to positions further south of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces will likely find it harder to achieve such dramatic effects in eastern Kherson but may be able to disrupt Russian efforts to solidify and hold their new defensive lines.

Russia likely to reinforce and expand offensive near Bakhmut redeploying troops recovered from Kherson – British Intelligence

Ukrainian troops destroyed Russian radar station at Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, on Nov 17 – OpCommand South

 

 

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