Russia is pulling strategic reserves to prop up a failing offensive, HUR says — and 20,000 troops is less than one month of its own losses

Russia is pulling troops from strategic reserves to sustain an offensive that has repeatedly missed its own deadlines, Ukraine's military intelligence assessed on 16 April. Moscow failed to take two of its three April target cities in Donetsk Oblast and has now set September as the deadline for the entire region. The reserve deployment is smaller than Russia's monthly battlefield casualty count.

While 20,000 is below Russia's monthly losses, it may still temporarily outstrip Moscow's usable force-generation surplus, since new recruitment is no longer keeping pace with attrition and deployable reserves are limited.

April missed, September set — with reserves running short

HUR Deputy Head Major General Vadym Skibitskyi told the Financial Times on 16 April that Russia is adding 20,000 fresh troops from strategic reserves to its force grouping in southeastern Ukraine. Russia currently has around 680,000 soldiers in theater, Skibitskyi said, citing a HUR assessment. Moscow aims to capture all of Donbas by September 2026.

The April deadline — set for Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Druzhkivka — was missed on two of three cities. Russia seized Pokrovsk after a two-year siege, but Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka held. The September goal is broader: the entire region.

Skibitskyi also said Russia produces roughly 60 Iskander missiles per month — the ballistic Iskander-M variant, as opposed to the cruise Iskander-K — and has expanded its launcher capacity. He warned that Ukraine's critical infrastructure remains highly vulnerable as a result with Russia refining strike tactics — while Ukraine faces a critical shortage of anti-ballistic interceptors.

Explore further

How Russia killed 16 Ukrainian civilians overnight — even as Ukraine intercepted 95% of its missiles and drones (updated)

ISW: 20,000 troops won't change the picture

The Institute for the Study of War assessed on 16 April that the reserve deployment likely reflects Russia's "continuous inability to reach the unrealistic operational objectives and deadlines" rather than a strategic shift. The 20,000 figure is notably fewer than one month of Russian battlefield casualties, ISW noted — making it unlikely to significantly alter the frontline situation.

ISW also cited Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, who reported that Russia is deploying elements of its strategic reserve in the Oleksandrivka and Zaporizhzhia directions — both away from its stated priority effort in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have faced simultaneously increasing casualty rates and decreasing recruitment rates in recent months, ISW noted, undermining the high-intensity assault tempo Moscow relies on.