Russia’s 2026 goals are slipping away as Ukraine fights back
With nine months left in 2026, the Kremlin has its sights set on two main objectives in the east and south. Neither is easy.
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Pokrovsk
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“The enemy failed”: Russia threw over 600 attacks at Ukraine’s front in 4 days. Ukraine held the line – Syrskyi
Syrskyi says Russian forces lost more than 6,000 troops killed and wounded in the surge – and failed to break through anywhere.
ISW: Ukraine’s drones pressure Russian command at every level — tactical, operational, strategic — likely disrupting spring offensive
Ukrainian forces conducted 365 mid-range strikes between March 2025 and March 2026, a third of them in the last three months alone, using domestically produced drones.
Hellish rain for occupiers: Russian battalion can no longer fire rockets from 40 tubes in 20 seconds
Ukrainian infantry gains breathing room, freedom to maneuver.
Russia launched what may be the start of its spring offensive on 17 March — and lost 900 troops in 36 hours without breaking through anywhere along a 100-kilometer front
Russian forces launched multi-sector assaults along the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts on 17–18 March, suffering heavy casualties without…
‘We detect and destroy everything’: Ukraine’s drone battalions hold off three Russian armies west of Pokrovsk
Regiment holding west of Pokrovsk says it targets Russian supply routes and staging areas as pressure toward Hryshyne intensifies.
Hryshyne clearing operations continue as Russia tries to turn occupied Pokrovsk into a launchpad for the next advance
The 7th Airborne Assault Corps reported the two units are conducting search-and-strike operations in Hryshyne.
Russian forces massing reserves near Pokrovsk — Ukraine’s East grouping is tracking the pre-offensive buildup
The task force has flagged intensifying airstrikes and fresh troop concentrations as indicators of an imminent Russian escalation.
Russia is flying Shaheds into Ukraine’s FPV kill zone to crack bunkers smaller drones can’t destroy, ISW says
ISW's 4 March assessment identified Russian forces pushing Shahed drones into the 0–20 km frontline strip normally dominated by tactical FPVs, citing their heavier payloads as the reason.
Russia’s Starlink replacement is giving away its positions — Ukrainian brigade tracks drone pilots by their Wi-Fi antennas
Ukraine's 59th Brigade soldier says Russia's Wi-Fi alternatives require clear line-of-sight placement, making every antenna a marker for a drone operator position or EW station.
Russia’s winter offensive ground to a halt as Ukraine recaptured more land than it lost in February, Syrskyi says
The Commander-in-Chief reported that over three winter months, Ukrainian forces killed or wounded nearly 100,000 Russian troops — more than Russia managed to recruit into its ranks over the same period.
126 km² in February, 245 in January, some 630 last November — Russia’s gains drop while its attacks hold steady, Deep State says
Assault operations barely slowed, dropping just 4% compared to January, while the Pokrovsk sector absorbed 31% of all attacks.
Russia’s direct assaults near Myrnohrad are failing. The quad bike flanking runs aren’t going much better
Ukraine's 79th Brigade reported a shift to northeast-southwest encirclement attempts using quad bikes — easy targets for FPVs.
Ukraine sentences FSB agent to 15 years for guiding Russian bombs onto Pokrovsk
Woman drove and walked near front lines, sending Google Maps screenshots to her handler
ISW: Russia appears to have seized Pokrovsk after two-year battle – but gains stall beyond the ruins
Ukrainian forces not observed in the town since late January, ISW says.
Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces officially reveal southern “operation” that reclaimed 300+ km² and eight settlements
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi visited the troops on the Oleksandrivka axis on 16 February, days before Zelenskyy announced the first 300 km² liberated — now the unit running the operation has confirmed the details
Ukrainian ground drone takes direct FPV hit – still evacuates two wounded soldiers near Pokrovsk
Conventional vehicle evacuation too risky under constant Russian FPV drone activity.
Russia’s army hasn’t grown in six months. Ukraine is making it pay.
Troop numbers flatlined at 711,000 even as Moscow adapted to cut casualties. Now Ukraine is counterattacking where Russia can't reinforce.
Kyiv robbed Pokrovsk to save Zaporizhzhia. The gamble is paying off
When Ukrainian forces fell back a short distance north of Pokrovsk recently, it was the result of a deliberate choice in Kyiv: to prioritize a counteroffensive farther south.
Two offensives inside Russia, one in Donetsk Oblast: The unannounced operations derailed Moscow’s 2025 strategy, Syrskyi says
The Belgorod, Kursk, and Dobropillia operations were never publicly announced but were "extremely important" and achieved their goals of destroying Russian forces and blocking the seizure of Donetsk Oblast, the top general stated.