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Raw power is back—if you want peace, prepare for war. A national director of the South African Institute of International Affairs, Greg Mills, believes no permanent peace possible while Putin remains in power. |
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How Ukraine can win, p.1. Swarms of cheap drones decimate Putin’s armor. Destroying thousands of armored vehicles, Ukrainian drones, mines and artillery are steadily depriving Russia of the mobility its forces need for major advances in Ukraine. This de-mechanization is one way Russia loses—and Ukraine wins |
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With or without truce, Russia’s war with Ukraine heading for freeze, analyst says. Russia is losing over a thousand daily for meager gains, but they still recruit more. Barring “major power shift,” the war’s intensity will decline, according to Tatarigami |
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Ukraine will fight with or without the West – but with you, we’re invincible. A mother, academic, and medic challenges the West to face the brutality of Russia’s war—and act before it’s too late. |
Military
Russia engages up to 640,000 troops against Ukraine, Kyiv’s top general says. Syrskyy informed NATO that constant attacks are not isolated but part of Moscow’s broader attritional military doctrine.
Russia targets Ukrainian civilians on Istanbul “ceasefire” talks day, killing four, injuring 30. Continuing what they call a “human safari,” Russian forces killed two civilians and injured ten others in Kherson Oblast alone.
Ukraine confirms F-16 crash on 16 May, pilot ejected and survived. The pilot reportedly downed three air targets, and used his gun on a fourth target just before the emergency forced him out. It’s the third F-16 loss since last August.
Forbes: drone captures deadly crash of Russian biker soldier as Moscow persists with failed motorbike raids. The crash occurred during a recon-by-force mission, as the soldier attempted to jump an anti-tank trench and failed.
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet ammo depot erupts after drone hit (video). The Perevalne site belonging to Russia’s 126th Coastal Brigade continues to explode following a direct strike last night.
As of 16 MAY 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
- Personnel: 971690 (+1100)
- Tanks: 10825 (+13)
- APV: 22546 (+32)
- Artillery systems: 27908 (+36)
- MLRS: 1385 (+1)
- Anti-aircraft systems: 1167 (+1)
- Aircraft: 372
- Helicopters: 336 (+1)
- UAV: 36123 (+123)
- Cruise missiles: 3197
- Warships/boats: 28
- Submarines: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 48713 (+166)
- Special equipment: 3892 (+0)
Intelligence and Technology
Frontline report: Ukraine’s elite drone brigade kills Russians every 6 minutes—with Latvian tech. Latvia sent 12,000 drones—Magyar’s Birds is making every one count.
Kyiv calls for sanctions: Russia’s deadly Iskander missiles are powered by sodium chlorate imported from China. An analysis shows 2024 missile oxidizer supply came entirely from China and Uzbekistan.
International
Denmark readies 26th military package for Ukraine, Zelenskyy says. With diplomacy ongoing, the countries’ leaders pledge to maintain pressure if Russia resists efforts to end hostilities.
Pope Leo XIV offers to host Russia-Ukraine talks, calls Istanbul peace attempt “tragic”. Istanbul talks delivered just a prisoner swap but no ceasefire.
Trump joins second crisis call with Zelenskyy, European leaders as Putin demands Ukraine retreat from four regions. Putin skipped the Istanbul talks, sending a lower-level delegation as Moscow’s demands stalled further negotiations.
Politico: Full-blown embargo on Russia back on Europe’s table. Russian President Putin’s refusal to attend talks with Zelenskyy in Türkiye triggered EU discussions on the most severe sanctions package yet.
Political and Legal Developments
“We are ready to fight forever in Ukraine,” says Russia’s top negotiator—then cites a fake Napoleon. As Russia rejects a ceasefire, Vladimir Medinsky turns to fake quotes to justify more war.
More land, more war, no regrets: Russia’s demands to Ukraine in Istanbul. Give up four regions, or we’ll take six — Russia’s chilling message to Ukraine.
“Maybe more of your loved ones will die”: Russia’s threat at Ukraine peace talks revealed. Russia says it’s ready to fight “forever”—despite nearly a million casualties.
Russia and Ukraine agree to largest-ever prisoner swap—but peace talks in Istanbul stall over Putin’s “outrageous” demands. 1,000 prisoners each—but no ceasefire.
Merz: EU to decide on new Russia sanctions package on 20 May after Putin excluded himself from talks. On the previous day, Merz also said Berlin and allies could move on frozen Russian funds if a lawful basis is confirmed.
Read our earlier daily review here.
