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Ukrainian attacks degrade Russian rear – ISW

This campaign is central to Ukraine’s plan to gradually degrade Russia through asymmetric attrition while minimizing its own losses

Ukraine’s campaign targeting Russian military assets far from front lines is disrupting logistics and artillery capabilities, likely shifting the attrition balance in Kyiv’s favor, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in its daily update.

On 22 July, Colonel Serhiy Baranov, chief of Ukraine’s missile and artillery forces, stated Ukrainian strikes are responsible for around 90% of Russian losses. He said Western long-range missiles allow “fire fist” strikes so powerful and accurate Russia struggles to counter them, ISW says.

Captain Nataliya Humenyuk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, said 22 July attacks on Russian ammo depots deep in the rear are causing logistics issues. She noted decreased Russian shelling in Kherson indicates “shell hunger” there.

Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi compared Ukraine’s counteroffensive to “boxing” on July 13, saying Ukraine intends to “hold the opponent at arm’s length,” likely referring to long-range strikes rather than close combat.

The officials’ statements suggest Ukraine’s interdiction campaign targeting Russian rear areas is succeeding, ISW believes. This campaign is central to Ukraine’s plan to gradually degrade Russia through asymmetric attrition while minimizing its own losses, even if territorial gains are slower, the think-tank adds.

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