Russo Ukrainian War. Day 261: 12 settlements liberated in Kherson Oblast

 

Daily review

Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

12 settlements liberated in Kherson Oblast, offensive operations ongoing. Ukrainian forces steadily advance in Kherson Oblast. Russian forces withdraw to the east bank of the Dnipro River. Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk and began constructing second-line fortifications in Crimea and southern Ukraine. Russian occupation officials continue mobilizing residents in Russian-occupied territories. During the current week, the Russian army fired 17 missiles and used 50 UAVs on the territory of Ukraine. US Department of Defense provides $400 million in additional assistance to Ukraine.

Daily overview — Summary report, November 11

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, November 11, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below:

Situation in Ukraine. November 10, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Situation in Ukraine. November 10, 2022. Source: ISW.

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The two-hundred-sixty-first (261) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military large-scale invasion continues.
Defense forces continue to liberate Ukrainian lands. During the successful offensive of our troops in the Kherson direction, on November 9,2022, 12 settlements were liberated: Dudchany, Pyatykhatky, Borozenske, Sadok, Bezvodne, Ishchenka, Kostromka, Krasnolyubetsk, Kalinivske, Bobrovy Kut, Bezimenne and Blagodatne. Offensive actions in the specified direction continue. Therefore, due to the safety of the operation, the official announcement of the results will be made later.
Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces have repelled attacks by the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Novoselivske, Myasozharivka, Makiivka, and Bilohorivka in the Luhansk oblast and Vesele, Soledar, Bakhmut, Andriivka, Krasnohorivka, Opytne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, and Pavlivka in the Donetsk oblast.
The enemy does not stop shelling units of the Defense Forces along the entire contact line, conducts aerial reconnaissance. It continues to strike critical infrastructure and civilian homes in violation of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war.
Over the past 24 hours, the russian occupiers have launched one missile and 17 airstrikes, launched almost 100 attacks from multiple rocket launchers. About 20 settlements in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv oblasts were affected by these criminal actions.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The formation of the russian-belarusian grouping of troops on the territory of the republic of belarus continues. There is still a threat of the enemy launching missile and air strikes, including using strike UAVs from the territory and airspace of the republic of belarus.
The enemy shelled in such other directions:
in the Siversky direction – from mortars, in the areas of the settlements of Hremyach in Chernihiv oblast and Kindrativka in Sumy oblast;
Kharkiv Battle Map. November 10, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kharkiv Battle Map. November 10, 2022. Source: ISW.

in the Slobozhansk direction – from mortars, rocket and barrel artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Strilecha, Starytsa, Ohirtseve, Aniskine, Vilkhuvatka;
on the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions – from tanks and artillery of various calibers, in the areas of the settlements of Ivanivka, Kislivka, Tabaivka, Berestovka, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Novoselivske, Makiivka, and Nevske;
in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks and the entire variety of artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Rozdolivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Toretsk, New York and Mayorsk;
Donetsk Battle Map. November 10, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Donetsk Battle Map. November 10, 2022. Source: ISW.

in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks and artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Vesele, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Paraskoviivka and Novomykhailivka;
in the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhia directions – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, Pavlivka, Prechystivka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Bilohirya, Stepove and Shevchenko.
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. November 10, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. November 10, 2022. Source: ISW.

In the South Buh direction, Novokiivka, Dobra Nadiya, Illinka, Marhanets, Nikopol and Musiivka of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast were hit by artillery fire.
The russian invaders continue to loot the settlements from which they are retreating. The enemy is also trying to damage power lines and other elements of the transport and critical infrastructure of the Kherson oblast as much as possible.
The forced eviction of local residents from separate settlements in the territories temporarily occupied by the enemy in the Kherson oblast continues. In the village of Zelenivka, the enemy forbade residents to move around the settlement and is refurbishing the system of defensive lines.
In Tyahynka and Kozatsky, the occupiers mined roads and infrastructure elements, there are facts of detonation of the civilian population.
During the past day, the aviation of the Defense Forces struck the enemy 10 times. 7 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, as well as 3 positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile systems, were affected.
Over the past day, the Defense Forces shot down an enemy Ka-52 helicopter. Soldiers of the missile forces and artillery struck 2 control points, 10 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 3 ammunition depots, 5 air defense facilities and 2 other important military facilities of the russian occupiers.

Military Updates

Zelenskyy’s evening address on de-occupation of the south: Today, we have good news from the south. The number of Ukrainian flags returning to their rightful place within the framework of the ongoing defense operation is already dozens. 41 settlements were liberated. Thanks to all our heroes who make this advancement possible. But while rejoicing, we should all remember now and always what this movement means: that every step of our Defense Forces is the life of our soldiers. Lives given for freedom of Ukrainians. Everything that is happening now has been achieved by months of brutal struggle. It was achieved through courage, pain, and losses.
Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst. ~

Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst.

Russia wants negotiations in order to get an operational pause for a regrouping of forces, said an adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Mikhaylo Podoliak. “Some kind of territorial acquisitions, or a way to get an operational pause for several months in order to regroup, train the mobilized and continue to attack our territories, or delay the inevitable and delay the defeat in the war, trying to play this or that blackmail further,” he explained. “Once again, I will emphasize the following: the Russian occupation troops are in need of an operational pause right in order to replenish reserves, supplies and at least somehow train the mobilized to hold a machine gun in their hands.”
Since 1 October, Ukraine liberated 41 settlements in Kherson Oblast. 12 settlements liberated on November 10, said Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.

Russia has realized that sporadic missile and drone strikes do not bring the desired destruction to Ukraine’s infrastructure and are therefore trying to stockpile precise missiles, spokesman of Ukraine’s Air Force Yuriy Ihnat said on air of the country’s national newscast. Read more here.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to fire on the roads to Crimea after the liberation of Kherson. Russian logistics facilities and ammunition depots will also be under the fire control of the Ukrainian army. They will be within the reach of high-precision missile systems that Ukraine receives from Western partners. According to the adviser of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Serhiy Kuzan, the right bank of the Kherson region is a strategically important territory from a military point of view.
This week, the Russian army fired 17 missiles and used 50 UAVs on the territory of Ukraine, said Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff Oleksiy Gromov. Of these, 24% of missiles and 64% of unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed. In total, during the week, air defense units destroyed 53 air targets.

Regional Updates

In Mykolaiv Oblast, drinking water will soon return to Mykolaiv. The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Kyselivka, a town where the water canal supplying water to Mykolaiv is located.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1590694571033649152

In Kherson Oblast, before withdrawal from Kherson, Russian soldiers blew up an energy facility and TV center next to the local TV tower of the city, Most reported. In addition, The Institute of Mass Information informed that Russian troops blew up cell towers in the city. According to local residents, Kherson was left without electricity. Earlier, Mykhailo Podoliak, an advisor to the presidential administration, said that Russia “wants to turn Kherson into a “city of death.” Euromaidan Press.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1590798192983040000

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1590753515366158336

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • Since 10 October, Russia has attacked Ukraine with a campaign of strikes targeting electric power infrastructure. To date, this action has come in waves. The most recent intense strikes were on 31 October, which involved targeting hydroelectric dam facilities for the first time. The strikes have resulted in widespread damage to transmission stations and power plants. Scheduled and emergency blackouts have become routine in parts of Ukraine, with Kyiv notably impacted.

 

  • Recoverability varies, and the impacts of strikes are unlikely to be felt uniformly. Continued degradation of networks by Russian strikes will almost certainly have consequences for interlinked water and heating systems, that will be most significantly felt by the civilian population during winter, as demand increases.

 

  • Russian strikes on power generation and transmission are having a disproportionate effect upon civilians in Ukraine, indiscriminately impacting critical functions such as healthcare and heating. The continued prioritisation of critical national infrastructure over military targets strongly implies Russian intent to strike at civilian morale.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of 11 November, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

Source: MFA. ~

Source: MFA.

Humanitarian 

Russian invaders brutally tortured and killed civilian hostages in a village school in Kherson Oblast. Read more here.

Legal 

Amnesty International documents Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Russian authorities deported Ukrainian civilians from occupied regions in what amounted to war crimes and likely crimes against humanity, Amnesty International says in a new report. The report ‘Like a Prison Convoy”: Russia’s Unlawful Transfer of Civilians in Ukraine and Abuses During ‘Filtration’ also reveals that Russian troops forcibly separated children from their families and transferred them into Russian-controlled areas of Russia. Read more here.  

Support 

Speaker of the Lithuanian parliament Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen met with Deputy Speaker of the Ukrainian parliament Olena Kondratiuk in Kyiv, UkrInform reported“Ukraine is fighting not only for its freedom but also for the freedom of Europe. I am sure the Ukrainian state will become part of the European Union. We are ready to provide support in this process and the process of the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine,” Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen said during the joint briefing with Kondratiuk. According to the Seimas speaker, Lithuania sees Ukraine as a prosperous, free, democratic country and will help Ukraine punish Russian war criminals. Read more here.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1590830238686072832

Spanish Defense Minister Margareta Robles announced the transfer of two Hawk anti-aircraft missile systems in addition to the already announced four. Robles also announced that Spain would provide Ukraine with a battery of 105 mm howitzers, as well as additional generators to cover the country’s electricity shortage. In addition, Spain donated 77,000 winter uniforms for military personnel to Ukraine.
Poland has handed over 1,570 Starlink stations to Ukraine, said the Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine.
Russia’s retreat from Kherson will be another victory for Ukraine, said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Putin’s aggression shook Euro-Atlantic security after the invasion of Ukraine. Kyiv repulsed the attack thanks to the tenacity of the people and the support of NATO allies. He reaffirmed that NATO will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.

The European Union has approved agreements with Ukraine and Moldova to ease the cross-border transport of goods. The agreements will facilitate road freight transport, allowing haulers to transit through, and operate between, each other’s territories without the need for related permits. Read more here. 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1590741455639023617

US Department of Defense provides $400 million in additional assistance to Ukraine, – Pentagon The package includes:
  • missiles for HAWK air defense systems;
  • 4 Avenger anti-aircraft missile systems and Stinger missiles;
  • ammunition for HIMARS;
  • 21,000 155mm artillery shells;
  • 500 high-precision 155-mm artillery shells;
  • 10,000 120mm mortar mines;
  • 100 highly mobile vehicles (HMMWV);
  • 400 grenade launchers;
  • small arms, optics and more than 20,000,000 cartridges for it;
  • explosive equipment and means of protection from the cold.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1590817325686861824

The Netherlands will send another 100 instructors to train soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the Spanish military will train Ukrainian snipers. 90 Dutch military are already teaching Ukrainian military. Ukrainian snipers will be trained at a military base in Toledo. The training of the Ukrainian military by European experts is a part of the EU mission.

New Developments 

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend in person a summit of leaders from the Group of 20 nations in Bali next week, CNN reported, citing the Russian embassy in Indonesia. Read more here.

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of 10 November, 2022:

Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian military officials and geolocated social media footage confirm that Ukrainian troops have made gains northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City in the past 24 hours and advanced up to 7km in some areas.[1] Russian forces so far appear to be withdrawing in relatively good order, and Ukrainian forces are making expected gains without routing Russian forces, as they did in the Kharkiv counteroffensive. Ukrainian strikes since August have successfully degraded Russian supply lines on the west (right) bank to force Russian forces to withdraw and will liberate Kherson Oblast to the Dnipro River in the coming days or weeks. The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City.

ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions. NBC News reported on November 9 that some US and Western defense officials are eyeing an “expected winter slowdown in fighting as an opportunity for diplomacy to begin between Russia and Ukraine.”[2] Autumn and springtime mud can slow or halt military advances, as can faulty or insufficient wintertime equipment. Some military equipment may need to be adapted for colder weather, and shortages of equipment or ammunition could slow advances due to logistical difficulties — not winter weather.[3] Winter weather could disproportionately harm poorly-equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but well-supplied Ukrainian forces are unlikely to halt their counteroffensives due to the arrival of winter weather and may be able to take advantage of frozen terrain to move more easily than they could in the muddy autumn months. If fighting does halt this winter, it will be due to logistical challenges and the culmination of several campaigns on both sides. The Russian campaigns to capture all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts all culminated months ago (despite the repeated insistence of Russian forces on launching ineffective attacks), and Russian forces are firmly on the defensive across most of the frontline.

Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces. The major Ukrainian victory underway in Kherson Oblast will not be Ukraine’s last. Fighting will continue on the southern axis; in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast (the only place Russian forces are still attempting meaningful offensives); and in northern Luhansk Oblast as Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations. Russian officials are busy attempting to train 120,000 conscripts to deploy to the frontlines in the spring.[4] Ukrainian forces likely aim to liberate as much occupied territory as possible before those Russian reinforcements arrive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on November 7 that Ukraine is unwilling to negotiate with Russian forces until certain conditions are met, including the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the prosecution of Russian war criminals, payment for war damages, and promises that Russia will not again invade Ukraine.[5] A wintertime ceasefire would only benefit Russian forces, who would use that opportunity to bolster their faltering defenses and continue their genocidal campaign to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied parts of Ukraine.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is increasingly wrestling with St. Petersburg officials over expanding Wagner Group operations in the city. Prigozhin’s press service stated that St. Petersburg officials refused to provide a permit for the newly opened Wagner Center in St. Petersburg on a technicality.[6] The press service noted that St. Petersburg officials are deliberately refusing to issue the permit based on their “ideological” differences, given that Wagner received the permission to construct the center in July.[7] The press service added that Wagner had petitioned the court and will take the issue further if the court recognizes St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov and his government have committed any “crimes.”[8] Prigozhin also accused Beglov and other St. Petersburg “liberal” businessmen of financially supporting Ukrainian “nationalists” and betraying Russia in response to the situation.[9] Prigozhin has previously accused Beglov of failing to support the Russian war effort and demanded his resignation, likely as a result of resistance from Beglov on expanding Wagner’s presence in St. Petersburg.[10] ISW also reported that a Russian nationalist outlet Pravda.Ru, which consistently reports on Prigozhin-related news, published a defamatory piece on Beglov’s uninterest in creating volunteer battalions in August.[11] Prigozhin is increasingly weaponizing his role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine to push his business aspirations.

Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that Russian forces will likely further reduce the pace of their campaign to strike Ukrainian critical infrastructure, likely enabling Ukrainian authorities to address most of the damage to infrastructure. Ignat announced on November 10 that on the night of November 9 to 10 Russian forces did not conduct any air or cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure facilities.[12] Ignat stated that Russian forces have begun to stockpile high-precision weapons systems to launch a future massive campaign reminiscent of the October 10 strikes, because small numbers of daily cruise missile and drone strikes are now generating few results.[13] Ignat stated Russian forces spent months accumulating the high-precision weapons systems they used in the October campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.[14] ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces have greatly depleted their arsenal of high-precision weapons systems and have suffered significant aviation losses and therefore would struggle to maintain the pace of their campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.[15] It will likely take Russian forces months to accumulate the number of high-precision weapons systems needed to return to the pace of strikes it conducted in mid-October despite Ignat’s reporting that Russian factories are drastically increasing the manufacturing of cruise missiles.[16] Ukrainian officials have previously stated that they could restore energy supplies to communities in Ukraine within a matter of a few weeks if the pace of the Russian campaign dramatically slowed.[17] ISW also assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have ordered the campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure to curry favor with the Russian pro-war nationalist camp that has been consistently demanding escalation in Ukraine.[18] A reduced pace in the campaign will likely contribute to renewed criticisms from the pro-war nationalist camp. Russian forces likely retain the capability to damage Ukrainian critical infrastructure and impose costs on Ukrainian civilians in the winter but are unlikely to be able to inflict decisive — and lasting — damage.

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
  • The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City.
  • ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions.
  • Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is increasingly wrestling with St. Petersburg officials over expanding Wagner Group recruitment in the city.
  • Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that Russian force will likely slow the pace of their campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk.
  • Russian forces began constructing second line fortifications in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
  • Russian citizens continue to oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine through protest, social media dissent, and desertions from the military.
  • Russian mobilization efforts are channeling personnel to the Wagner group.
  • Russian occupation officials are continuing efforts to erode Ukrainian national identity while mobilizing residents in Russian-occupied territories.

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