US President Donald Trump's misreading of Russia has cost Ukraine dearly. Russian forces exploited the first half-year of the new US presidency to advance on the front lines and kill civilians, taking advantage of a flawed understanding of Moscow’s mindset.
Initially, Trump claimed he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. But eight months later, and after at least six calls with Putin, Trump's peace initiatives resulted only in Russia intensifying strikes on civilians and the number of dead civilians. Today, Russian forces killed 24 elderly people in Donetsk Oblast who were standing in line for their pensions. How the US plans to end the war and hold Russia accountable for this atrocity remains unclear.
Sanctions will not alter the Kremlin's goal
Trump has expressed willingness to impose sanctions on Russia, yet economic pressure alone will not deter Putin from his primary objective: defeating Ukraine.
The American leader's challenge is immense: inflict enough damage on Moscow to change its behavior while keeping diplomatic channels open.
In practice, this is impossible, as Putin does not seek peace, and confusion in Trump’s thinking only exacerbates the problem.
Putin exploits time and allies
The past eight months of American governance have been wasted from the perspective of strategic defense for Ukraine and Europe, allowing Moscow to strengthen its position.
After attacks on the offices of the EU, the British Council, and Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers, it became clear that Putin acts with impunity.
A meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping reinforced his sense of support from international allies, and Moscow continues to receive money, weapons, hydrocarbons, and even special forces from North Korea.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials fear new attacks on Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast and advances north toward Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. The Kremlin's time gain gives Putin a strategic advantage that Washington has yet to offset. Clearly, this approach requires urgent change.
