Russo-Ukrainian war, day 1623: Ukraine has shot down 445,000 Russian aerial threats since 2022, but Moscow’s tactics and missiles are testing the limits of that shield

Exclusives

Reconstruction holds Ukraine’s economy above water as service sector cracks. The sector rebuilding what Russia destroys is now the war economy’s most confident, while service firms slip into pessimism, and the overall mood stops improving.

Ukraine’s ousted defense minister took drone contracts away from the generals. Now they may take them back. The suppliers who thrived under the old system are already pushing to bring it back.

Can Ukrainian forces save Sloviansk and Kramatorsk?. Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are the last big free cities in Donetsk Oblast. Can Ukrainian forces save them from a creeping Russian advance?

Military

Over 100 strategic targets struck in Ukraine's 40-day campaign against Russia's war machine. Ukraine's Security Service says the operation combined deep strikes on air bases, oil facilities, air defenses, and shadow fleet vessels with battlefield attacks on more than 21,000 Russian military targets.

Two Russian missiles landed 5 and 150 meters from Lithuania's embassy in Kyiv. Its FM says strike could have been deliberate. Lithuania's foreign minister said Russia may have deliberately targeted diplomatic missions in Kyiv, noting no military sites stand near its damaged embassy.

Ukraine has intercepted 445,000 Russian aerial targets since 2022, but cracks in the shield are starting to widen. Ukraine says its air defenses have shot down hundreds of Russian missiles and tens of thousands of attack drones since 2022, as Russia increasingly shifts toward harder-to-intercept ballistic attacks.

Take Lyman, then Sloviansk, then Kramatorsk: Russia's plan is still stuck on step one, the Ukrainian military says. Russian commanders treat the town as the necessary launchpad, yet their infantry cannot hold ground inside it, according to the report.

ISW: First Pokrovsk, then Huliaipole, now Russia points its logistics-killing air campaign at the Fortress Belt. The 2025 version took months to set up advances, and this one is expected to move just as slowly.

No siren sounded before drone hit crowded Russian beach near missile maker's resort, killing six. OSINT analysts say Russian air defense likely brought it down.

Intelligence and technology

Mystery drone resembling America's F-117 stealth jet filmed over a Russian refinery. The unidentified aircraft appeared during a strike near Ufa, and Ukraine's military has said nothing about what it is.

This Russian refinery makes the jet fuel for Moscow's warplanes, and Ukraine keeps setting it on fire. Syzran supplies airfields and units of two Russian military districts, and it sits over 800 km from Ukraine. Also, Wildberries confirmed a fire at the Krasny Bor complex, the third of its Leningrad Oblast hubs struck in under two weeks.

Russia wanted Novorossiysk to be its main export gateway, Ukraine turned it into a chokepoint. The port handled every fifth ton of Russia's seaborne exports, but a grain-exporters' union now warns the Black Sea corridors could be blocked entirely.

Russia's largest retailer is taking cameras away from its own workers, month after eight of its warehouses burned. Russia's Wildberries now lets warehouse staff bring only button phones without cameras, after employees filmed Ukrainian drone strikes on its facilities and shared the footage.

Russia uses old KGB trick to get rid of Ukrainian soldiers not on battlefield. It's already tried more than 50 times this year. Russia is using "honey traps," fake dating profiles and staged dates, to lure Ukrainian soldiers to their deaths, the SBU says.

International

US begins handing Ukraine military aid mission to European allies as Pentagon reorganizes command. The Security Assistance Group-Ukraine has coordinated billions of dollars in military aid since 2022. The Pentagon says the transition reflects Europe's growing role in supporting Kyiv's defense.

Lithuania moves to produce Ukrainian drones locally under bilateral defense pact. The project will manufacture Ukrainian-designed drones in Lithuania using transferred technology, expanding Ukraine's production capacity abroad while strengthening Europe's defense industry.

Syria agrees to cut Russian oil imports as US pushes to curb Moscow's influence, Reuters. Russian crude shipments to Syria have risen sharply this year, making Moscow the country's dominant supplier, but Damascus is now reportedly seeking alternative sources as it pursues closer relations with Washington.

Russia is now Belgium's only LNG supplier, after Iran War disrupts imports, Bloomberg. Belgium's LNG intake plunged, yet every cargo it received in July came from Russia while European purchases from Moscow continued rising.

Georgia's sanctioned Kulevi refinery says switch to non-Russian crude is under way. Black Sea Petroleum says Kazakhstan's crude has already entered production and the first shipment from Libya is due later this month as the company seeks to meet EU requirements for ending its reliance on Russian oil.

Iran was prepared to strike three Ukrainian sites over sunken ship but paused after Kyiv's explanation, Tehran claims. A senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader said Tehran still intends to make Ukraine "pay" for the attack despite suspending its immediate response. Ukraine has maintained the vessel was carrying Iranian drone and missile components for Russia.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russia has destroyed 80% of Ukraine's power capacity. Its next target makes blackout survivable for only three days. Russia's aim this winter is to destroy Ukraine's water supplies, First Deputy PM and Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal says.

Crimea mass shooting: Russian soldier reportedly kills three civilians and one fellow soldier. The detained serviceman reportedly opened fire on fellow soldiers before attacking residents outside Sevastopol. His identity and motive remain undisclosed.

Putin gave this brigade honorary title weeks after war crimes in Bucha. It's now hiding its own dead as "missing". The 64th Brigade, a main suspect in the Bucha atrocities, is intimidating wives of missing soldiers and relabeling its dead as "missing" to hide losses, the ATESH partisan movement says.

70 Ukrainian firefighters help tackle one of France's largest wildfires in the past 20 years. Ukrainian rescuers were assigned to the most challenging section, where they received their first tasks today.

Russia keeps hitting warehouses that keep Ukraine fed. This time, it was food storage outside Dnipro. A Russian drone strike ignited a large fire at food warehouses in a suburb of Dnipro, the regional administration says, with casualty information still being clarified.

Political and legal developments

Ukraine's former commander-in-chief just said what officials won't: NATO membership will never happen for Kyiv. Kyiv should tie its security to a future European military bloc.

Zelenskyy names one of the worst consequences of Russia's war. This threat is about to grow everywhere in the world. Ukraine needs 100 systems under its FREYJA anti-ballistic project to close its skies, President Zelenskyy says, pitching it as a future shared shield for Europe.

Read our previous daily review here.