Russia has found a way to make a Ukrainian winter deadlier than power cuts alone. Russia's new goal is the targeted destruction of Ukraine's water systems, First Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said in an interview with Politico published on 4 August.
Water is the one utility people cannot outlast. Last winter, Russia targeted electricity and heating, which people could survive with gas and water, but without water and sewage, it is hard to survive more than three days.
Destroying water systems could turn a winter blackout from an ordeal into a threat to life itself.
The energy grid is already devastated
The water warning comes on top of damage that has gutted Ukraine's power generation. Before 2014, Ukraine produced 54.5 gigawatts of electricity. The full-scale war cut that number to 32 GW, and after last winter's strikes, Ukraine was generating only about 12 GW, a shortfall of 6 GW that forces rolling blackouts nationwide.
The cumulative toll is staggering. Russia has destroyed or damaged more than 80% of Ukraine's power-generating capacity, the minister said. Ukraine now produces less than a quarter of the electricity it produced before Russia's war began.
Ukraine is racing to fund resilience before the cold
Shmyhal put numbers on what Ukraine needs to get through the winter. Ukraine requires $585 million from Western partners to boost its energy resilience before winter, and an additional $468 million to help the state gas company, Naftogaz, recover from Russian attacks, with Kyiv hoping for Canadian support.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is answering Russia's energy war with its own. Its long-range strikes have knocked out about 40% of the Kremlin's main refining capacity, causing fuel shortages across Russia, and Kyiv hopes those strikes and allied sanctions push Russian leader Vladimir Putin to end the war this fall, Shmyhal said. If that fails, Ukraine faces a repeat of last winter, with water systems now in the crosshairs.
