Russia’s advance across Ukrainian territory has fallen to its lowest rate since late 2024, with March 2025 showing a significant reduction in captured territory compared to previous months.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have played a significant role in this development. Recent weeks have seen Ukrainian forces conduct localized counterattacks in both the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, successfully regaining positions previously lost to Russian forces.
The ISW, which uses geolocated footage to track battlefield developments, reports Russian gains of approximately 627 square km in November 2024 compared to just 203 square km in March 2025.
This assessment slightly differs but still confirms the data posted on 5 April by the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) that Russian forces advanced just 143 square km in Ukraine during March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive month of declining territorial gains. This marks a significant decline from the 700+ square kilometers seized in November 2024.
The discrepancy in precise measurements likely stems from different methodologies used by the two organizations, though both sources agree on the overall pattern of diminishing Russian advances.
Russian forces currently occupy about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, with the remaining 80% under Ukrainian control.
Earlier, the ISW estimated it would take over 83 years for Russia to capture the remaining 80% of Ukraine, assuming they could sustain current casualty rates indefinitely, which is unlikely.
In March, Ukrainian forces also withdrew from Russia’s Kursk Oblast, ending a seven-month operation that aimed to divert Russian attention from the main conflict zones in eastern Ukraine.
As of recent successes on the front, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian assault near Andriivka in Donetsk Oblast, effectively countering Russian attempts to advance toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
