Russo-Ukrainian war, day 856: Ukraine signs security agreements with European Union, Lithuania, and Estonia

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Military

Military: Ukrainian forces push Russian invaders out from Chasiv Yar’s ‘Kanal’ micro-district. However, Russian occupiers haven’t stopped their attempts to advance towards the city.

NATO Secretary General: Russia incapable of significant breakthroughs in Ukraine. Stoltenberg noted that Russia launched another offensive in Ukraine during the spring-summer “but so far with only marginal success.”

Frontline report: Ukrainian forces conduct flanking maneuvers against Russian detachments in and around Vovchansk. Intense clashes persist in the northern part of Vovchansk, with Ukrainian forces advancing from their stronghold in the citadel area towards the northern outskirts of the city, with the goal of counterattacking Russian forces and capture the heights overlooking the city.

Battle rages on: Ukrainian forces destroy three Russian tanks, nine armored vehicles, and 42 artillery systems over last 24 hours. The battle for Vovchansk is ongoing on the Kharkiv front.

As of 26 June 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

Personnel: 538060 (+1220)
Tanks: 8039 (+4)
APV: 15450 (+19)
Artillery systems: 14321 (+40)
MLRS: 1108
Anti-aircraft systems: 863
Aircraft: 359
Helicopters: 326
UAV: 11435 (+22)
Cruise missiles : 2324
Warships/boats: 28
Submarines: 1
Vehicles and fuel tanks: 19407 (+45)

Intelligence and technology

FT: US, Israel, and Ukraine are negotiating up to eight Patriot air defense systems. The air defense system is capable of downing cruise and ballistic missiles. Reuters: US offers $10 mln reward for info on Russian hacker for cyber attack on Ukraine and its allies. Before the beginning of the all-out war in 2022, he hacked Ukrainian government systems.

Ukraine may deploy Magura V5 naval drones in Azov Sea, which is well within their operational range. Ukraine’s defense intelligence says maritime drones, particularly Magura V5, provide a strategic advantage in the Black Sea against Russia’s larger fleet. With an 800 km range, these drones can reach well into the Azov Sea, yet the agency is cautious about their deployment.

Ukraine downs 28/29 air targets during Russia’s nighttime assault. Last night, Russia launched a coordinated missile and drone strike on Ukraine, which caused no damage to energy infrastructures but led to multiple air raid alerts and some power outages in frontline areas.

HUR hackers attack Russian internet providers in occupied Crimea. Network disruptions are possibile in the peninsula, warned Kremlin-installed authorities.

ISW: Ukraine lacks air defense systems to protect repaired energy facilities. The Institute for the Study of War reports that a lack of Western-provided air defense systems has allowed Russia to maximize damage to Ukraine’s energy capacity in 2024.

International

Estonia to send defense aid to Ukraine worth more than € 100 million in 2024. The country confirmed it will allocate at least 0.25% of GDP annually in 2024-2027 for Ukraine’s assistance.

Stoltenberg says he expects NATO to establish new command in Wiesbaden for Ukraine support. Earlier, NATO defense ministers approved a long-term plan to assist Ukraine and train Ukrainian military personnel.

Ukraine, EU signed Joint Security Commitments, which include military, financial, and humanitarian, aid for ten years.

Tusk: Poland finalizes work on security agreement with Ukraine. Tusk also said he had an “important meeting” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on bilateral Polish-Ukrainian relations ahead of a European Council meeting in Brussels.

Germany may hold more basic training for Ukrainian army recruits. “We have received more training requests as Ukraine continues to mobilize, in particular for basic training” Lieutenant-General Andreas Marlow, head of the EU’s special training command near Berlin, said in an interview on Thursday 27 June.

Ukraine signs security agreements with Lithuania and Estonia. In recent months, Ukraine has significantly bolstered its security by inking defense agreements with 16 European countries and the United States.

NATO will offer Ukraine a “bridge” to membership through new structure to coordinate aid. The Biden administration and NATO officials came up with the idea as a way to give something solid to Kyiv at the summit even as they maintain the time is not right for Ukraine to join.

Zelenskyy arrives in Brussels to sign EU-Ukraine security agreement. Zelenskyy set to sign security agreements, including landmark deal with EU committing all 27 members to support Ukraine.

Ukrainian World Congress launches major campaign in 32 countries to promote Ukraine’s NATO membership ahead of Washington summit. The organization plans to meet with officials and civil society leaders to persuade them of the significance of inviting Ukraine to the Alliance.

EU allocates more than $2 bn of financial support to Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, the EU’s total budgetary support since the beginning of this year has already reached almost $8.5 billion.

US ambassador: China has “effectively sided with Russia”. US ambassador Nicholas Burns said that despite its claims of neutrality, China was providing a range of technologies to Moscow while maintaining strong trade ties with Russia throughout the conflict.

White House welcomes Dutch PM Rutte as next NATO chief. “Mark Rutte will make an excellent Secretary General,” White House advisor Kirby says, welcoming the appointment of the Dutch PM as NATO chief. Rutte will assume office this fall.

Lithuania allocates 0.25% of GDP for Ukraine’s defense support. The country says it will continue standing firmly with Ukraine until victory.

Serbia won’t ban ammo sales to third countries supplying Ukraine, PM Vučević says. Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević defends ammunition sales to Western buyers, potentially supplying Ukraine, saying this doesn’t make Serbia a belligerent in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Reuters: Poland, Baltics call for “defense line” along Europe’s Eastern border. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are calling for EU-wide financial support to build a defence infrastructure system along the bloc’s eastern border.

South Korean media: North Korea might send military construction and engineering forces to occupied Donetsk in July. South Korean media reports North Korea could send military engineering forces to occupied Donetsk as early as July, potentially earning millions from Russia.

Politico: Russia sends 30,000 migrants to dig trenches in Ukraine. Moscow is using foreigners who have obtained Russian citizenship to aid the war.

Political and legal developments

Media: Swedish furniture giant IKEA set to reopen in Ukraine. Swedish retailer IKEA has decided to return to Ukraine, inspired by the successful reopening of H&M and Inditex stores, media sources report. The decision was made in May, with technical preparations underway. The exact reopening date remains undetermined.

Read our earlier daily review here.

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