Russo-Ukrainian war, day 619: Zelenskyy dismisses claims of stalemate, Russia loses 200 vehicles in Avdiivka

Exclusive

OSINT data: Russia’s assault on Avdiivka costliest since all-out war outset in terms of equipment losses. Geoconfirmed’s investigation confirmed Russia’s major equipment losses in the Avdiivka offensive —197-215 combat vehicles damaged or destroyed over three weeks. This is “by far the most costly Russian assault” since the start of the all-out war, the investigators said.

Military

Military: Russia’s goal of Kupiansk offensive is to re-encircle, overrun the city. The ongoing Kupiansk offensive by Russian forces targets a strategic logistics hub, but Ukrainian forces resist fiercely, preventing any significant advances, the Ukrainian military says. CNN: Ukraine military aid running out of funds, White House says amidst Congress split. The White House is growing increasingly worried about the diminishing funds allocated for Ukraine's military aid, reports CNN, referring to the WH press secretary. As of 04 Nov 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 304100 (+830)
    • Tanks: 5276 (+11)
    • APV: 9939 (+38)
    • Artillery systems: 7363 (+35)
    • MLRS: 861 (+7)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 568 (+2)
    • Aircraft: 322
    • Helicopters: 324
    • UAV: 5534 (+39)
    • Cruise missiles : 1551
    • Warships/boats: 20
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 9716 (+25)

Explosions rock Crimea, Sevastopol bay shrouded in smoke. Russian occupiers claim to have created a smoke screen in Sevastopol Bay. “Our children will curse us in the trenches we are digging for them,” Lithuanian FM says about peace deal. Landsbergis warning about peace deal comes amid reports by NBC News that US and E.U. officials have initiated delicate talks with Ukraine about potential negotiations with Russia. ISW: Russia builds forces for “third massive assault” on Avdiivka. Russian forces secured new ground north of the fiercely contested city of Avdiivka despite Ukrainian counterattacks, an ISW assessment reports, as an imminent major assault looms.

Intelligence and technology

Russian nuclear missile tests encounter failures, reveals Ukrainian intel. Recent missile tests in Russia have faced failures and delays, impacting the reliability of their strategic nuclear forces and raising questions about their nuclear capabilities. Estonia spy chief: next weeks to see intense fighting near Avdiivka and Kupiansk. Russia will aim to capture Avdiivka by the end of the year to score a propaganda victory like with Bakhmut, Colonel Ants Kiviselg said UK Intelligence: Russia switched to meat grinder assaults at Avdiivka after losing 200 armored vehicles. Russia's switch to its trusted tactic of expending lives for meters was likely prompted by Ukraine's effective use of anti-armor weapons, mines, drones, and artillery

International

Moldova spy chief: Russia paid fugitive tycoon $ 55.5 mn to overthrow government. A criminal group led by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor had spent $5 in the past month to bribe voters and fund the Șansă party, Moldova says In Germany, Russians attacked Ukrainians, chanting pro-Russian slogans. A group of young Russians deliberately provoked and violently assaulted four Ukrainian teenagers in Bremen, Germany. Ukraine receives eight Swedish Archer howitzers. Another four are on the way. Archers have a 50 km range with pinpoint accuracy

Humanitarian and social impact

Kyiv’s decommunization effort continues with removal of Soviet star. This Soviet symbol was located in Halytska Square (formerly Victory Square) Ukraine commemorates Sandarmokh’s victims – a thousand intellectuals slain by Soviet authorities. Thousand of Ukrainian writers, artists, and scientists were shot in northern Russia 86 years ago

Political and legal developments

Zelenskyy responds to Zaluzhnyi’s article: No stalemate situation. President Zelenskyy dismissed claims of a stalemate on Ukraine's front lines, emphasizing need for strategic planning and international collaboration. NBC: West begins “delicate” discussions with Ukraine about Russia peace deal. Worried about waning public support for funding Kyiv, US and EU officials have talked to Ukraine about possible negotiations to end the war with Russia, NBC reports US sanctions Russian national for helping elites launder money. The US has sanctioned Ekaterina Zhdanova for laundering funds and facilitating crypto transactions worth hundreds of millions of dollars, helping Russian elites bypass sanctions. Read our daily review here.