According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War, the Ukrainian military continued their ground operations on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and established a confirmed presence in a settlement on the east bank on October 20.
Geolocated footage published on October 19 revealed that Ukrainian forces advanced into northeastern Krynky, a settlement located 27 kilometers east from Kherson City and only 2 kilometers from the Dnipro River. Russian milbloggers have claimed that Ukrainian forces are in the process of establishing a foothold near Krynky while maintaining their presence near the Antonivskyi roadway and railway bridges.
According to ISW, one prominent Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian forces temporarily advanced even further into Krynky, up to the Kozachi Laheri-Krynky-Korsunka road. However, Russian airstrikes pushed Ukrainian troops back to the northern outskirts of the settlement.
Another Russian milblogger indicated that fighting is ongoing near Pishchanivka, which is situated 14 kilometers east from Kherson City and 4 kilometers from the Dnipro River. This source also mentioned the presence of a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group operating on the southern outskirts of the settlement. Several days earlier, Russian milblogers were worried about possible Ukrainian offensive on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.
It’s worth noting that the Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 19 that Russian aviation had struck Pishchanivka, implying that Ukrainian forces were still operating in the area. However, the Institute for the Study of War has not observed any other visual confirmation of Ukrainian forces maintaining positions in east bank settlements other than Krynky.
According to ISW assessment, Russian and Ukrainian sources continue to suggest that the Russian units defending the east bank of Kherson Oblast are relatively less combat-effective than other Russian forces elsewhere on the front. A Ukrainian military observer stated that the Russian “Dnepr Grouping of Forces” primarily comprises elements of the 49th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) and likely elements of the newly created 18th Combined Arms Army.
The majority of the 49th Combined Arms Army (CAA) has been deployed to the east bank of Kherson Oblast since Russian forces withdrew from the west bank. Elements of the 49th CAA’s 205th Motorized Rifle Regiment have suffered significant casualties.
The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on August 21 that the Russian military was likely forming the new 18th CAA from other units currently operating in Kherson Oblast. It is unlikely that the new units of the 18th CAA are entirely comprised of fresh forces or staffed to doctrinal end strength.
This deployment of the 18th CAA to Kherson Oblast appears to resemble the rushed deployment of the newly created 25th CAA to the Kupiansk and Lyman directions in early September 2023, ISW assesses. The 18th CAA likely faces similar issues, including a lack of personnel, equipment, and proper training.
Russian milbloggers have claimed that elements of the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment, reportedly part of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th CAA, are defending against Ukrainian activities near Krynky. Additionally, elements of the 1st Battalion of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) are operating near the Antonivskyi railway bridge. Elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment have been defending in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and have likely suffered significant casualties. The situation in Kherson Oblast remains dynamic, with Ukrainian forces making substantial gains in the region as they continue to push back against Russian units facing various challenges related to deployment, training, and resources.
Read more:
- Frontline report: Ukraine gains bridgehead, reclaims two villages in Kherson Oblast on Dnipro
- Russian strikes on east bank of Dnipro in Kherson Oblast
- ISW: Russian milbloggers worried over Ukrainian assaults
- Russia attacked residential districts in Kherson, hospital in
- Russians launch 13 guided bombs on Ukraine’s Kherson
- Media: Ukraine hits Russian HQ in occupied Kherson Oblast
- Powerful blast blacks out multiple neighborhoods in Kherson
- Russian shelling kills one in Kherson Oblast
