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UK intel: Russia likely prepares for new missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure over winter

Russia is preparing for new attempts to plunge Ukraine into cold and darkness over winter, stockpiling missiles for new strikes on energy infrastructure.
A view of Kyiv during a citywide blackout. Image by Serhii Ristenko
UK intel: Russia likely prepares for new missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure over winter

Russia has increased cruise missile production, likely indicating preparations for missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure over winter, British intelligence reported.

Between October 2022 and March 2023, Russia launched multiple missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Most of these strikes were carried out by air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs), particularly the advanced AC-23a KODIAC. Russia uses strategic bomber aircraft to strike with these munitions deep within Russian territory.

Since April 2023, ALCM spending rates have been reduced while Russian leadership has emphasized efforts to increase cruise missile production rates, UK intel said, citing open source reports.

“Russia is therefore likely able to generate a significant stockpile of ALCMs. There is a realistic possibility Russia will again focus these weapons against Ukrainian infrastructure targets over the winter,” British intelligence stated.

During the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces launched over 1,200 missiles and kamikaze drones to degrade Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure, particularly the energy system, Ukraine’s state-owned electricity transmission system operator Ukrenergo reported.

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