The British Ministry of Defence released its latest intelligence assessment on the war in Ukraine today, reporting a spike in Russian casualties around the eastern city of Avdiivka.
Russian assaults near Avdiivka have led to a 90% increase in casualties recorded by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, according to British intelligence. The battles came as part of Russia's intense offensive operations across the Donetsk Oblast.
Frontline report: Russia’s Avdiivka offensive “not worth the losses,” Russian troop said
The Ministry of Defence attributed Russia's ability to mount assaults to its expanded force presence in Ukraine. Since February 2022, Russia has boosted its troop numbers through recruitment incentives and partial mobilization in autumn 2022.
British intelligence estimates Russia has likely suffered between 150,000-190,000 permanent casualties so far, including both killed and permanently wounded troops. Factoring in temporarily wounded personnel who are expected to return to duty, total casualties are believed to be in the range of 240,000-290,000.
The heavy losses around Avdiivka demonstrate the costs Russia is willing to pay to gain incremental advances in eastern Ukraine. However, manpower shortages remain a challenge, with additional forces needed to both defend occupied regions and sustain offensive drives.
The intelligence update did not include casualty figures for Wagner Group forces or Russian prisoner battalions active around the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut.
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