Ukrainian soldiers raised the Ukrainian flag on Dnipro islands south of Kherson. Russian occupation “authorities” reportedly began leaving the city of Tokmak as Ukraine approaches. Wagner’s Prigozhin buried in St. Petersburg in a clandestine funeral ceremony.
Daily overview — Summary report, August 30, 2023
According to information from the General Staff as of 06.00 30.08.2023, supplemented by its [18:00 assessment].
Military Updates
Ukraine launches a new agency in the Ministry of Defense to make procurement more efficient. Unlike other Ukrainian ministries, which since 2017 have been operating according to the new Prozorro system, the Ministry of Defense was a partial exception due to secrecy. Prozorro system made all state procurement procedures conducted online on the basis of open price competition. In the Ministry of Defense, part of the contacts could be concluded bypassing Prozorro, which posed a threat of corruption.
Forbes: Ukraine has lost only five out of 71 Leopard 2 tanks during the counteroffensive. According to the visually confirmed tank losses and interviews with Ukrainian service members, Forbes has estimated there were only five visually confirmed Leopard tank losses during the 13 weeks of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. At the same time, at least ten tanks were damaged while over 50 remain operational. The Ukrainians are repairing the damaged tanks at depots in Poland and Germany and returning them to the front.
According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):
- On 25 August 2023, two Russian soldiers were sentenced to serve at least two years in a penal colony by a military court for refusing to obey orders to return to the front in Ukraine. On 18 July 2023 the Mediazona news outlet reported that Russia was convicting close to 100 soldiers a week for refusing to fight. If this trend continues, there will be approximately 5,200 convictions a year for refusing to fight.
- The high rate of convictions demonstrates the poor state of morale in the Russian Army and the reluctance of some elements to fight. Refusal to fight likely reflects the lack of training, motivation and high stress situations Russian forces face along the entire Ukrainian frontline.
- Although some soldiers have refused to fight and attrition rates remain high, Russia highly likely mitigates their loss by committing a mass of poorly trained soldiers to the frontline. Since Russia’s September 2022 partial mobilisation, Russia has adapted its approach to warfare by utilising sheer mass for offensive and defensive operations.
Losses of the Russian army
Humanitarian
International architects to restore Ukraine’s war-torn cultural legacy. For the first time, a coalition of 11 organizations across Europe launched a 3-year project to analyze, restore, and protect Ukraine’s cultural heritage damaged by war.
Driver and passenger died, two children injured in Chernihiv Oblast mine blast. On Monday in a border community of Chernihiv Oblast a civilian car was engulfed in a fatal explosion, police reports. The driver and a passenger lost their lives, while two young children were rushed to the hospital for treatment. Preliminary findings suggest that the car detonated on a forest road, likely due to a mine.
83% Ukrainians link victory to full territorial restoration. In a recent sociological monitoring study titled “Ukrainian Society,” conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on behalf of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in June, an overwhelming 83.5% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine’s victory can only be achieved through the restoration of all territories within the borders of 1991. This sentiment reflects a strong emphasis on territorial integrity as a critical factor for the nation’s success.
Toretsk hit by Russian cluster munitions, one woman killed and three injured. The indiscriminate shelling of Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine) killed a woman and wounded three people, the Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported. The Russian army allegedly used cluster munitions to shell residential areas in Toretsk today.
Environmental
Ukraine uncovers new gas field with potential of billions of cubic meters. “Naftogaz Ukraine,” the largest company in Ukraine by its share of GDP and a leading entity within the country’s fuel and energy complex, which includes the subsidiary “Ukrgazvydobuvannya,” has unveiled the discovery of a new gas field, estimated to hold reserves of billions of cubic meters of natural gas. The exploration of this gas field was initiated from the ground up, involving drilling to a depth of nearly 4,000 meters. Preliminary geological findings suggest that the untapped reserves within this newfound field might potentially amount to an impressive 1 billion cubic meters of gas.
Ukraine warns of possible energy facility attacks amid decreased rocket activity. Reduced summer rocket strikes suggest potential Russian missile accumulation for energy facility attacks, although massive attacks like those last year are less likely. The intensity of Russian rocket strikes on Ukraine has shown a significant reduction during the summer months, Suspilne reports. However, experts warn that this decrease could be indicative of Russia’s attempt to stockpile missiles for potential attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities. The Ukrainian military’s General Staff of Intelligence (GUR) suggests that while massive barrages like those witnessed last year, which saw simultaneous launches of 70 to 100 rockets, are less likely to recur, the risk of targeted strikes remains.
Legal
Documenting Russian war crimes now makes healing & justice possible for Ukraine at war’s end. Denial of war crimes, of what actually happened on the battlefield, is real, and it will happen here in Ukraine—unless we lock down the truth. This denial is already happening today with two other recent conflicts that occurred in the 1990s: one in the former Yugoslavia, the other in Rwanda. In both cases, history is being rewritten by genocide deniers who seek to bury the truth for personal gain and power. We cannot let that happen in Ukraine. We know that the truth has been buried before here, over many decades of trans-generational trauma that’s been inflicted on Ukraine from the countless wars, occupations, to the Holodomor, to the current, full-scale invasion.
Support
US announces new military aid package for Ukraine worth USD250 million. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new military package for Ukraine. He said it is worth $250 million in a statement on 29 August 2023. The package includes:
- AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
- ammunition for HIMARS systems;
- 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
- mine-clearing equipment;
- Javelins and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
- 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
- ambulances;
- demolition munitions for obstacle clearing.
It also includes spare parts, services, training, and transportation. This package is being executed under drawdowns previously directed for Ukraine.
New Developments
Russia plans to produce 1,300 Shakhed drones by year-end — Intelligence. Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitskyi, said in his interview for RBC that Russia has launched its domestic production of Shakhed drones under the label of Geran-2. He said Russia plans to produce 1,300 Shakhed drones by the end of 2023, although Ukraine’s intelligence assesses they are currently incapable of producing so many UAVs of this type.
Ukrainian special services exposed how Western components are shipped to Russia for Lancet drones. At best, sanctions increase the price of components for Russian weapons manufacturers, like the German-made engines for Russian kamikaze Lancet drones, bought at a threefold higher price through a chain of intermediary companies. Ukrainian special services shared some investigation results with the Ukrainian outlet Economichna Pravda. For example, Ukrainian special services report that the Russian company Legion Komplekt imported engines for Lancets, even after the restrictions were imposed, from the German company Hydro-Funk through a chain of intermediaries.
Klimkin on Germany: Half the problem or half the solution for Ukraine? Germany must shun “management” and embrace “leadership” to tackle Russian threat and avoid West’s fragmentation, urged former Ukrainian Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Germany Pavlo Klimkin.
Assessment
- On the War
The Institute of Study of War has made the following assessment as of 29 August:
Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on August 29. Geolocated footage published on August 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced south of Bakhmut and about five kilometers southeast of Robotyne.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhzhia Oblast) directions.[2] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported on August 28 that Ukrainian forces continued to secure positions in Robotyne and are demining the area.[3] Shtupun reported that Ukrainian forces could bring more troops to the Robotyne area and would have greater opportunities for maneuver.[4] Shtupun noted that Robotyne is near the highway to Tokmak, an important Russian ground line of communication (GLOC).[5] A Russian milblogger suggested that Russian forces are continuing to commit a significant number of reserves, Airborne (VDV) elements, and TOS-1 thermobaric artillery systems to the area – likely indicating that Russian forces are worried about the vulnerability of their positions in Robotyne.[6] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces intend to deplete Ukrainian offensive potential by fixing Ukrainian forces in engagements in the settlement of Robotyne.[7]
Russian sources continued to express concerns over Russian vulnerabilities in eastern and western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. One Russian milblogger claimed that the situation near Verbove (18km southwest of Orikhiv) is “very dangerous.”[8] Russian “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky, reportedly defending the eastern Donetsk-western Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, claimed that Russian forces in his sector are stretched in a long arc along the frontline, are having difficulties transferring reserves, and lack resources.[9] Khodakovsky claimed that Ukrainian efforts to cut off Russian transport routes would further complicate the situation.[10] Khodakovsky has previously highlighted concerns about the Russian defense in the eastern Donetsk-western Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, specifically relating to poor Russian counterbattery capabilities, heavy Russian losses, exhausted Russian forces, and a lack of reserves.[11] The “Vostok” Battalion claimed that Ukrainian forces disrupted their logistics on August 28 by striking their rear area with drones.[12] The “Vostok” Battalion noted that Ukrainian shelling has wounded several of its personnel and that Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems are failing to down Ukrainian aircraft and drones.[13] Khodakovsky’s and the “Vostok” Battalion’s complaints are likely those of tactical commanders focused on their own local issues on a sector of the front that is of lower priority to Russian theater commanders who are focusing efforts in western Zaporizhzhia. These concerns could well be valid, but senior Russian commanders could have contingencies in place should the situation here deteriorate that they have not troubled to communicate to Khodakovsky and his colleagues. Such tensions between de-prioritized tactical commanders and higher commanders are not uncommon in war.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and reported Wagner logistics and security head Valery Chekalov were buried on August 29 in St. Petersburg in separate cemeteries, likely to prevent the creation of a single pilgrimage site that would establish the deceased Wagner members as martyrs. Prigozhin’s and Chekalov’s funerals were held at the Porokhovskoye and Severnoye Cemeteries, respectively.[14] The funerals were closed to the public, and Russian police and National Guard (Rosgvardia) units secured the areas.[15] The Kremlin’s likely efforts to separate the Wagner burial sites to prevent their martyrdom in the public eye may prove ineffective as the official Telegram channel of Prigozhin’s press service, which had been inactive since June 26, publicly confirmed Prigozhin’s burial site on August 29 and called on anyone “wishing to say goodbye” to visit.[16] Wagner-affiliated sources did not comment on the future of the Wagner private military company, likely indicating a hesitancy within the organization to appoint a successor given the Kremlin’s and the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) efforts to destroy the Wagner Group since the rebellion and the challenges any successor loyal to the Kremlin would likely face in securing his position within Wagner.[17]
Russian milbloggers accused the Russian MoD for the fifth consecutive day of attempting to conceal concerns over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in occupied Kherson Oblast.[18] Russian milbloggers have continued to criticize the Russian MoD for mistreating elements of the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District). The milbloggers also accused the Russian MoD of reportedly staging a response video in which five men claiming to be serving in the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade called on milbloggers to refrain from discussing the brigade’s alleged lack of artillery support and supplies in the Dnipro River delta area.[19] One milblogger noted the Russian military command began punishing servicemen of the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade for speaking out about these problems and added that state-affiliated milbloggers and propagandists are discrediting that concerns of a unit that is operating on a dangerous coastal frontline on the east (left) bank Dnipro River.[20] Milbloggers also claimed that these problems began after the Russian military command appointed a former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 100th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade commander with the alias “Skif” to command the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.[21] Milbloggers claimed that “Skif” had previously “destroyed” the 100th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade while receiving state honors.[22] The Russian MoD notably has yet to silence these complaints, which may indicate that the Russian military command is unsure it can effectively do so at this time.
These milblogger persistent complaints are likely an attempt to spark command changes that may favor Russian Airborne Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, who reportedly oversees Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian military command needs to immediately change its leadership if Russia wants to win the war and claimed that Ukrainian forces pose a threat to the allegedly mistreated 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.[23] Ukrainian small-scale raids, however, do not pose a significant threat to the Russian grouping of forces in occupied Kherson Oblast – and milblogger concern is more likely aimed at discrediting unwanted commanders such as “Skif,” who was likely appointed by the Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov or “Dnepr” Group of Forces (Kherson Oblast) Commander Colonel General Oleg Makarevich. Some of these milbloggers have previously complained about Gerasimov, Makarevich, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for failing to respond to Ukrainian threats in occupied Kherson Oblast, not providing boats to Russian forces, or blaming them for other military failures.[24] Some of these milbloggers had specifically attacked Makarevich, whom the Russian military command previously appointed to replace Teplinsky in January 2023 before Russian President Vladimir Putin reinstated Teplinsky in March-April 2023.[25] Some of these milbloggers also have a history of publicly praising Teplinsky and opposing Gerasimov’s or Shoigu’s efforts to remove Teplinsky from his position after the Wagner Group’s rebellion on June 24.[26] Teplinsky had been previously loosely affiliated with Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and had repeatedly been insubordinate to Gerasimov and Shoigu.[27] Teplinsky may have lost some authority since the rebellion or may be attempting to prevent Gerasimov and Shoigu from undermining his authority. These complaints may also be a part of an ongoing campaign to discredit Makarevich that existed prior to the rebellion and highlight that factional divisions within the Russian military command have continued past the rebellion.
The Russian MoD may be reverting to the more limited coverage of the war in Ukraine while attempting to censor complaints along the frontline and reports of Ukrainian advances. The Russian MoD recently changed its daily reporting style to reduce the daily amount of information it reports on the war.[28] The Russian MoD previously issued a daily situational report that differed from the individual situational reports from the press services of each Russian grouping of forces.[29] The press services of each Russian grouping of forces issued text directly copied from the overall daily situational report instead of their own original reports on August 29, however.[30] The Russian MoD has consistently attempted to institute an information policy that would provide limited information about the frontlines throughout the war.[31] The Russian MoD’s change in reporting, if this trend continues, may reflect its wider efforts to censor Russian reporting on the war and unify its own narrative.
The US State Department announced a new military aid package for Ukraine on August 29. The $250 million package includes AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, mine clearing equipment, HIMARS rockets, and Javelin anti-armor systems.[32]
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin is currently focused on promoting five main information operations against Ukraine, all of which ISW has observed. The GUR reported on August 29 that the Russian Presidential Administration held a meeting on August 25 to approve the specific narratives that Russian media should promote in the information space.[33] The Russian narratives include claims that Ukraine is conducting mass mobilization regardless of age, gender, or health; claims that Ukraine’s Western partners are disappointed in Ukraine‘s prospects for victory; claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing; claims that the Ukrainian government is completely corrupt and is not fighting corruption and; claims that Russian authorities provide good living standards and conditions in occupied Ukraine.[34] Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko and Russian media representatives reportedly attended the meeting. ISW has observed all five false narratives in the Russian information space.[35]
Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on August 29.
- Russian sources continued to express concerns over Russian vulnerabilities in eastern and western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and reported Wagner logistics and security head Valery Chekalov were buried on August 29 in St. Petersburg in separate cemeteries, likely to prevent the creation of a single pilgrimage site that would establish the deceased Wagner members as martyrs.
- Russian milbloggers accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for the fifth consecutive day of attempting to conceal concerns over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in occupied Kherson Oblast.
- These milblogger persistent complaints are likely an attempt to spark command changes that may favor Russian Airborne Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, who reportedly oversees Russian forces in southern Ukraine.
- The Russian MoD may be reverting to more limited coverage of the war in Ukraine while attempting to censor complaints along the frontline and reports of Ukrainian advances.
- The United States State Department announced a new military aid package for Ukraine on August 29.
- The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin is currently focused on promoting five main information operations against Ukraine, all of which ISW has observed.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast administrative border area but did not make confirmed advances.
- The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on August 29 that the Russian MoD is still unlikely to meet its targets for volunteer recruitment, despite offering incentives such as high salaries and additional social benefits.
- Ukrainian sources reported that occupation authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Russia.
