Russia lost two aircraft and two helicopters in one day over its territory. A new German EUR 2.7 billion military aid package for Ukraine will double German contribution. More missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.
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Daily overview — Summary report, May 14
A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 14/05/23.
There have been no notable changes to control since the last update. pic.twitter.com/ByT9a1CwtL
— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) May 14, 2023
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 18.00 pm, May 14, 2023 is in the dropdown menu below:
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Frontline report: Ukraine hits targets far behind frontline with cruise missiles; Russia loses four military air assets
Ukrainian military reveals devastated Bakhmut: every meter of the city under fire. The Ukrainian armed forces have published images of Bakhmut, a city that has been devastated as a result of Russian aggression. The 24th Mechanized Brigade, named after King Danylo, shared the images on their Facebook page. The post describes the current situation in Bakhmut: “This is what Bakhmut looks like right now. It may seem like fog to you, but it’s not. This is smoke from fires and smoke shells that the enemy uses in desperate attempts to break our defense.”
Russia lost two aircraft and two helicopters in one day over its own territory – media. In the afternoon of 13 May 2023, several popular Russian military-related Telegram channels reported that Russia lost four aircraft: 2 Mi-8 helicopters, a Su-34 fighter bomber aircraft, and a Su-35 ground attack aircraft over the Russian Briansk Oblast and near the northern Ukrainian border.
Ukraine’s air defense destroyed 17 out of 21 Russian Shahed drones at night attack. In the early hours of 13 May 2023, Russia attacked various Ukrainian regions from both the north and south using Iranian-manufactured Shahed-136/131 strike drones. A total of 21 launches were recorded. Anti-aircraft missiles, fighter aircraft, and mobile fire groups destroyed 17 drones, Ukraine’s Air Force said. The remaining drones hit infrastructure objects in the west-Ukrainian Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Local authorities noted that the facility is located outside of settlements. However, 11 people were wounded, the mayor of Khmelnytskyi Oleksandr Symchyshyn said.
Russia’s 72nd Brigade withdraws in disarray as Ukraine regains at least 1 km of territory – UK intel. The Russian 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade “likely withdrew in bad order from their positions” on the southern flank near Bakhmut, Donetsk oblast, allowing Ukrainian forces to regain at least a kilometer of territory, according to the latest intelligence update from the UK Defense Ministry.
Russia tried to destroy US-made Patriot SAM in Ukraine with Kinzhal missile – CNN citing US officials. Russia tried to destroy a US-made Patriot air defense system in Ukraine last week with a hypersonic missile, two US officials told CNN, but the attack failed and the Ukrainian operators of the Patriot instead intercepted the missile. It was the first known successful Ukrainian use of the Patriot system weeks after it arrived in Ukraine.
“I clearly see what to do, but the path is long and difficult,” Ukraine’s Commander in Chief says in his first video interview
"Our victory is definitely the liberation of the entire occupied territory. But this is not enough. Ukraine must…ensure that what happened would never happen again," Ukraine's Commander in Chief Zaluzhnyi says in the first video interview (ENG subs incl) https://t.co/NsVLlqFTSV
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 13, 2023
According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):
- On paper, the Russian Combined Grouping of Forces (CGF) in Ukraine is similarly organised to the invasion force of 446 days ago. It still likely consists of over 200,000 personnel organised into around 70 combat regiments and brigades divided into five Groups of Forces. It still struggles with limited freedom to conduct air operations.
- However, in February 2022 it consisted of professional soldiers; was largely equipped with reasonably modern vehicles; and had been regularly exercised, aspiring to complex, joint operations. Now the force is mostly poorly trained mobilised reservists and increasingly reliant on antiquated equipment, with many of its units severely under-strength. It routinely only conducts very simple, infantry-based operations.
- Critically, it is unlikely that CGF has been able to generate a large, capable, mobile reserve to respond to emerging operational challenges. It is unlikely to be an organisation which will effectively cohere large-scale military effect along the 1,200 km front line under stress.
Losses of the Russian army
21 injured in Russian drone attack in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Ukraine. As a result of a Russian drone attack in the Khmelnytskyi Oblast of Ukraine on the night of Saturday, 21 individuals were injured, two of whom were hospitalized, Oblast Administration reported adding the assault was carried out by Russian drones, which targeted an object of critical infrastructure located outside the populated areas.
Early in the morning today, Russian kamikaze drones attacked Khmelnytskyy (Ukraine's west)
Reportedly, a Ukrainian ammunition dump was destroyed. At least 21 civilians have been injured
Video: https://t.co/Dw4Kbw4wvj pic.twitter.com/KSF6DPmVix
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 13, 2023
#Russia escalates torture conditions against imprisoned #CrimeanTatar leader and #journalist Nariman #Dzhelyal#FreeNarimanDzhelyal #FreeDzhelyal #LetMyPeopleGo #Ukraine #StandWithUkraine #StopRussia #Mejlishttps://t.co/Z26sG14Jul
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 14, 2023
Russia escalates torture conditions against imprisoned Crimean Tatar leader Nariman Dzhelyal. There seems every reason to assume that the new torment is also part of Moscow’s revenge against a man whose courage and moral fibre it cannot understand or break.
#Russia uses civilians as human shields in ‘evacuation’ from #Zaporizhzhia oblast#Ukraine #Berdiansk #StandWithUkraine #StopRussia #RussiaWarCrimeshttps://t.co/PkEUJ626lS pic.twitter.com/GgAibHwOHx
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 13, 2023
Fake ‘evacuation’ from Zaporizhzhia oblast to move Russian forces and conceal war crimes. The effective deportation of Ukrainians from occupied territory is being used to mask Russia’s movement of personnel and hardware and to hide its war crimes.
Italian PM promises full support for Ukraine’s EU integration, believes in Ukraine’s victory. The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, has promised to provide full support for Kyiv’s EU membership bid, including assistance with reforms, following talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Rome. This was reported by a correspondent of “European Truth.”
A new German EUR 2.7 billion military aid package for Ukraine will double German contribution. The federal government agreed on a further EUR 2.7 billion in military aid for Ukraine shortly before the expected visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Germany, allegedly planned for 14 May 2023. The aid is supposed to be a “symbol of German solidarity,” German Newspaper Tagesspiegel reports.
Zelenskyy had a 40-min conversation with Pope Francis in Vatican
The Pope presented Zelenskyy with small sculpture of an olive branch, a symbol of peace. In return, Zelenskyy gifted the Pope with icon of Madonna, painted on remnants of bulletproof vest https://t.co/Pl8wlJhLu3
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 13, 2023
Zelenskyy meets with Pope Francis, gifts Madonna painted on bulletproof vest. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had a 40-minute conversation with Pope Francis in the Vatican, as reported by the Italian newspaper La Repubblica. The Pope, leaning on his cane, met with Zelenskyy who greeted him with a hand on his heart and a bow of his head. An interpreter was present during the 40-minute conversation between Pope Francis and Zelenskyy. Details of the discussions remain undisclosed at this time.
Ukraine pushes for EU accession talks and military aid at EU Foreign Ministers Meeting. Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba, during a recent meeting with the 27 Foreign Ministers of the European Union (EU), urged the bloc to open accession talks, signaling an ambitious step towards EU membership for Ukraine. In the meeting, the Ukrainian official raised two critical issues: the need for long-range artillery ammunition and the urgency to initiate short-range EU accession talks. The Minister revealed in a tweet that progress is being made on both fronts.
Ukraine's FM Dmytro Kuleba urges EU to open accession talks & provide long-range artillery ammunition at recent meeting w/ 27 EU Foreign Ministers in Stockholm
Key topics included Peace Formula, request for F-16s, Special Tribunal for Putin &mine clearing https://t.co/WIVhbW5HM7 pic.twitter.com/uTON3sJynt
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 13, 2023
Ukraine imposes new sanctions against Russia’s military industry: 221 individuals, 521 companies. On 12 May, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) imposed new sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced this in his evening video address, Liga reports.
- On the war.
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of May 13, 2022:
Important Note: ISW has reindexed its map layer for reported Ukrainian counteroffensives on May 12, 2023. We removed reported Ukrainian counteroffensive coded before May 1, 2023, in order to delineate more clearly new Ukrainian territorial gains from gains secured in previous Ukrainian counteroffensives. ISW retained a few reported Ukrainian counteroffensives polygons from before May 1, 2023, specifically on the Dnipro River Delta south of Kherson Oblast, to preserve context in that complex area of operations. May 1, 2023, is an arbitrary date and does not mark the beginning or end of any assessed Ukrainian or Russian effort. ISW has reindexed its map layers before and similarly removed old reported Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts following the conclusion of the Battle of Kyiv in April 2022.
Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of the city as of May 13. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces established new positions on the outskirts of Kurdyumivka (14km southwest of Bakhmut) and pushed Russian forces behind the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in the area. The milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced towards Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) from the direction of Predtechyne (16km southwest of Bakhmut). ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these additional Ukrainian gains southwest of Bakhmut or elsewhere in the wider Bakhmut area as of May 13. Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on May 13 that Ukrainian forces are advancing in unspecified areas of the front, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are currently conducting active operations in the Bakhmut area. Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on May 13 that Ukrainian forces liberated 17.3 square kilometers of territory in the Bakhmut direction over three days of counterattacks. ISW has assessed as of May 13 that the Ukrainian forces have liberated 16.85 square kilometers in the Bakhmut area during recent counterattacks. Russian sources amplified footage purporting to show the aftermath of a recent Ukrainian counterattack on Russian positions near Mayorsk (20km southwest of Bakhmut) and claimed that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 3rd Brigade of the 1st Army Corps repelled the assaults. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that recent successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks north of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut) degraded Russian forces’ ability to interdict the O0506 highway between Khromove and Chasiv Yar (13km west of Bakhmut), a significant ground line of communication (GLOC) for Ukrainian forces operating in Bakhmut itself. The milblogger claimed that Russian retreats in response to recent Ukrainian counterattacks have occurred in relatively small areas of the frontline but warned that these “regroupings” could become more significant if Russian forces fail to stabilize the frontline. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 12 that talks of tactical Russian withdrawals are nonsense as Russian forces continue to outright abandon positions in unspecified locations.
Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 12 to 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that shot down 18 of the 22 Shahed-131/136 drones that Russian forces launched from the northern and southern directions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that drones struck an infrastructure facility in Khmelnytsky Oblast. Footage published on May 13 purportedly shows the aftermath of the strike in Khmelnytsky Oblast.
Russian media reported that two Russian Mi-8 helicopters, a Su-34 bomber, and an Su-35 fighter crashed in Bryansk Oblast on May 13, which some Russian sources claimed was caused by Ukrainian air defenses. Geolocated footage shows the aftermath of crashes near Surestskii Muravei and Klintsy, about 50km from the Ukrainian border. Russian milbloggers speculated that all four aircraft crashed as the result of a coordinated Ukrainian strike using air defense systems pulled to the border area of Chernihiv Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has not yet responded to the incident at the time of publication. Ukrainian officials have similarly refrained from commenting on the incidents. However, several Russian milbloggers seized on the incident to criticize aspects of how the Russian aerospace forces conduct air operations and to accuse the leadership responsible for these aircraft of gross negligence and incompetence. Milbloggers warned about Ukrainian capabilities and called for harsh retaliation against Ukraine. Some milbloggers questioned why the two Mi-8 helicopters were flying so close to the border in the first place and called for aerospace commanders to take better steps to move such assets further into the rear. Moscow Duma Deputy Andrey Medvedev warned that Ukrainian counteroffensive actions will not manifest only in mechanized warfare, suggesting that Russian authorities should prepare for further strikes on such aviation assets as part of a wider Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Deputy Information Minister Daniil Bezsonov accused the Russian aerospace command of “tyranny” and “fraud.”
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck rear Russian areas in Luhansk Oblast with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on May 12 and 13, prompting heightened Russian anxiety about potential Ukrainian abilities to target Russian logistics. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on May 13 that Ukrainian aircraft struck industrial facilities in occupied Luhansk City with a Storm Shadow cruise missile on May 12. Geolocated footage published on May 13 shows the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes on Yuvileyne (7km west of Luhansk City) on May 13, and Russian sources widely claimed that Ukrainian forces also used Storm Shadow cruise missiles in the subsequent strike. A Russian milblogger claimed that a Storm Shadow cruise missile would have caused more damage, however, and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Internal Ministry claimed that Ukrainian forces used “Hrim-2” missiles to conduct the May 12 strike. United Kingdom Defense Secretary Ben Wallace confirmed on May 12 that the UK is supplying Ukraine with the missiles but did not specify when or even if Ukraine received them. ISW has not observed visual confirmation that Ukrainian forces have used Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike Russian positions in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers claimed that the strike illustrates that Ukrainian forces may be able to target airfields and rear deployment and logistics centers in areas previously considered to be completely safe. A prominent Russian milblogger compared the alleged use of the cruise missiles to the summer of 2022 when Ukrainian forces began using HIMARS rockets to target Russian logistics in Kherson Oblast and argued that the Russian information space is similarly attempting to downplay the impact that such systems may have.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on conducting the war in Ukraine in the style of the “Great Patriotic Special Military Operation” has opened the door for several hardline actors to advocate for the institutionalization of increasingly Stalinist domestic policies. Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin proposed on May 13 that, in light of the requirements for “economic security in a war,” Russia should take the path of “nationalization of the main sectors” of the economy. A prominent Russian milblogger responded to Bastrykin’s statement and noted that whole-scale nationalization has transcended the rhetoric of the Communist Party and is now being advocated for by one of the largest Russian law enforcement agencies. The milblogger remarked that the Russian elites appear to be increasingly using Bolshevik and Stalinist practices to organize Russian society for war in the absence of other successful historical analogues for wartime economic structuring. ISW has previously assessed that Putin is invested in constructing false historical parallels between the war in Ukraine with the Soviet Great Patriotic War. The emulation of these conditions on the highest levels of Russian government will likely continue to have domestic implications as the war continues and opens the door for increased normalization of Soviet and Stalinist practices in all branches of government.
Former Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Sergey Avakyants reportedly received an appointment to lead a new Russian force generation organization called “Voin” (“Warrior”), which reportedly replaced Russia’s legacy Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF). One Russian source claimed on May 13 that the “Voin” organization, which will provide combat training and education to Russians between 14 and 35 years old, has “completely replaced” DOSAAF, which had been active in recruitment efforts. ISW previously reported that the same Russian milblogger claimed that Avakyants will be forming a new “organization” which could cooperate with DOSAAF. It is unclear what DOSAAF’s current status is if this milblogger’s report is accurate. It is also unclear if DOSAAF was disbanded and reformed into “Voin” or if “Voin” had subsumed DOSAAF’s organization into a new vertically integrated organization under Avakyants’ and the Russian Ministry of Defense‘s (MoD’s) control. This report, if accurate, could indicate a Kremlin effort to subordinate DOSAAF — a nominally non-governmental organization — under the MoD. DOSAAF, a Soviet-era youth movement for promoting military skills, has likely supported Russian forces and Wagner Group recruitment and youth education aimed at Russifying youth in occupied Ukraine.
Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized at a presidential hospital in Minsk on May 13. Independent Belarusian monitors reported that Lukashenko was hospitalized in Minsk around 19:00 local time on May 13 but that Lukashenko’s motorcade had left the hospital by around 21:00. The status of Lukashenko’s health condition remains unclear. Lukashenko has not been seen in public nor has his office updated his weekly schedule with any events since his visit to Moscow on May 9. Lukashenko did not deliver his traditional Victory Day address in Minsk, Belarus, on May 9 although it is not clear why.
- Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of the city as of May 13.
- Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 12 to 13.
- Russian media reported that two Russian Mi-8 helicopters, an Su-34 bomber, and an Su-35 fighter crashed in Bryansk Oblast on May 13, which some Russian sources claimed was caused by Ukrainian air defenses.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck rear Russian areas in Luhansk Oblast with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on May 12 and 13, prompting heightened Russian anxiety about potential Ukrainian abilities to target Russian logistics.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on conducting the war in Ukraine in the style of the “Great Patriotic Special Military Operation” has opened the door for several hardline actors to advocate for the institutionalization of increasingly Stalinist domestic policies.
- Former Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Sergey Avakyants reportedly received an appointment to lead a new Russian force generation organization called “Voin” (“Warrior”), which reportedly replaced Russia’s legacy Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF).
- Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized at a presidential hospital in Minsk on May 13.
- Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove.
- Russian forces made marginal gains within Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
- Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine west of Hulyaipole.
- Russian forces are reportedly replenishing units with mobilized personnel.
- Russian authorities continue efforts to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of “rest and relaxation” schemes.
Tags: Russian invasion