Putin keeps rejecting Ukrainian sovereignty in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations – ISW

Putin keeps rejecting Ukrainian sovereignty in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations – ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin at Valdai Discussion Forum, 27 October 2022. Screenshot

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In its October 27 Russian offensive campaign assessment, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War says that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject the idea of Ukrainian sovereignty “in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations.”

Putin continued to reject Ukrainian sovereignty during a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 27. Putin stated that the “single real guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty” can only be Russia, which “created” Ukraine. Putin reiterated that it is a “historical fact” that Ukrainians and Russians are fundamentally “one people” that were wrongly separated into “different states.” Putin stated on October 26 that Ukraine has “lost its sovereignty” and become a NATO vassal.

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Putin’s statements reject the legal fact that Ukraine is a fully sovereign state, that the Russian Federation recognized Ukraine’s sovereignty, and that the Ukrainian people exist as a distinct nation. Putin’s perpetuation of the narrative that Ukraine and Russia are a single people separated into different states by arbitrary historical circumstance indicates his continued objective to destroy the Ukrainian state and erase the notion of a Ukrainian people. He added during the question-and-answer period that “if some part of that single ethnicity at some moment decided that it had reached such a level as to consider itself a separate people, then one could only respond with respect.”

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The many conditionals in this comment underscore Putin’s rejection of the idea that there is currently any independent Ukrainian national identity. These statements, along with many Russian actions, must cause serious reflection on the question of whether Russia’s war against Ukraine is a genocidal action since genocide is legally defined as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.”

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ISW report‘s key takeaways

  • Putin continues to reject Ukrainian sovereignty in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations.
  • A senior Russian official threatened that Russia could target Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and along the Kreminna-Lysychansk line.
  • Russian forces are continuing to make defensive preparations along the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground assaults in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
  • The Russian military sent mobilization notices to foreign citizens working in Russia.
  • Yevgeny Prigozhin‘s Wagner Group may be further developing its air warfare capabilities and fielding more complex equipment on par with the conventional Russian military.
  • Russian and occupation administration officials began seizing residents’ cell phones in Russian-occupied territories to support law enforcement and operational security measures.
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