Russo Ukrainian War, Day 130: The Ukrainian army destroys Russian military warehouses and fortifications.

 

Daily review

Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

The Ukrainian army destroys warehouses, equipment depots and fortifications of the Russian army. Russian forces entered Lysychansk and advanced within the city. Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground assaults north of Sloviansk. The Ukrainian army destroyed the remnants of the Russian military equipment at Zmiiny Island.  Ukrainian aviation struck a Russian stronghold in the Mykolaiv Oblast, destroying military equipment.

Daily overview — Summary report, July 3

Russo-Ukrainian War, Day 130: The Ukrainian army destroys Russian military warehouses and fortifications. ~~

According to military expert Stanislav Haider, as of July 3,

In the Sloviansk direction, the Russian army is still regrouping and waiting for armored vehicles and fuel to be delivered. This became much more difficult after Russian warehouses were destroyed in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

Ukrainian soldiers are holding steady in the direction of Bakhmut. Novoluhanske is Ukrainian. Another assault in the direction of Semyhirya was repulsed. New assaults on Avdiivka were repulsed.

Lysychansk vicinity: not commented.

South of the Donetsk Oblast. Russians do not stop their unsuccessful efforts to return the lost settlements and positions in the area of ​​Vuhledar and Velika Novosylka.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Ukrainian army continues to play the game “Guess where we will strike next time” with the Russian. This works successfully because even the prepared areas saturated with reserves cannot withstand short but powerful strikes. “Artillery duels”  and battles in the area of ​​Polohy and Nesteryanka continue.

The Kherson Oblast. Active fighting continues north and west of Kherson. Fighting continues near Snihurivka. In the Vysokopillia-Arkhanhelsk region, the situation is not favorable for the Russians.

Russo-Ukrainian War, Day 130: The Ukrainian army destroys Russian military warehouses and fortifications. ~~

The Kharkiv Oblast. No significant changes.

The Ukrainian army destroys warehouses, equipment depots and fortifications of the Russian army,  such as Chornobayivka, Rovenky, Popasna, Yasynuvata.

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, July 2, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below. 

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No signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups were detected in the Volyn and Polissya directions. According to the available information, from July 1, 2022, the rotation of units of the armed forces of the republic of belarus in the Brest region began. The air defense system is being strengthened at the expense of units of the Eastern Military District of the Armed Forces of the russian federation.

In the Siversky direction, the enemy continues to provide increased protection of the section of the Ukrainian-russian border. In addition, the enemy fired from the territory of the russian federation at the positions of the Defense Forces and civilian infrastructure near Bachivsk and Vovkivka, Sumy oblast.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy is defending the previously occupied positions. The areas of the settlements of Ruska Lozova, Peremoha, Verkhniy Saltiv, Zamulivka, Volobuyivka, Milova, Protopopivka, Pytomnyk, Prudyanka and Nortsivka were shelled with artillery.

Our soldiers successfully repelled an enemy assault near Prudyanka. The enemy launched an airstrike near Mospanovo and Hrakovo.

In the Sloviansk direction, the occupiers are defending themselves. Areas of the settlements of Dibrovne, Mazanivka, Krasnopillya, Sukha Kamyanka, Virnopillya and Mayaki were shelled from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery. On several occasions, unsuccessful attempts were made to conduct assaults near Mazanivka. They were repulsed and left. The enemy uses electronic warfare systems.

In the Donetsk direction, the occupiers are concentrating their main efforts on securing positions in the area of ​​the cities of Lysychansk and Verkhnokamyanka. Conducted offensive actions near Bilohorivky, had no success, were forced to retreat.

In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy fired near Novoluhansky and Travnevy. Conducted an airstrike near Pokrovsky. Attempts are being made to conduct an offensive in the area of ​​the settlement of Spirne, hostilities are ongoing.

In the Avdiyivka, Kurakhivja, Novopavlivja, and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy fired at our positions in the areas of Pisky, Nevelske, Novomykhailivka, Novodanilivka, Poltavka, Bilohirya, Olhivske, and Kamianske settlements. With offensive actions, the enemy is trying to improve the tactical position in the area of ​​Spartak settlement.

In the South Buh direction, the enemy is concentrating its efforts on preventing the advance of units of the Defense Forces in the likely directions of attack. Conducted systematic shelling from barrel and rocket artillery. It carried out an airstrike in the area of ​​the settlement of Ivanivka.

The Russian occupiers are launching systematic rocket attacks in the direction of Mykolayiv.

In the northwestern part of the Black Sea, the ship group of the Black Sea Fleet continues to perform the task of blocking Ukraine’s maritime communications and conducting reconnaissance. Two carriers of sea-based cruise missiles of the “Calibre” type are in readiness for the use of missile weapons in the waters of the Black Sea.

Aviation of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine worked in fact in all directions of hostilities — in the Mykolayiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. It made almost one and a half dozen group flights. About twenty units of enemy equipment and two field ammunition depots were destroyed. Our units continue to successfully perform missile and artillery fire missions. The total losses of the enemy are being clarified.

Military Updates 

Ukrainian Army successfully use HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems in confrontation with Russia, notes the representative of the Pentagon. “The “Ukrainians are able to carefully select targets that will undermine the effort by Russia in a more systematic way certainly than they would be able to do with the shorter range artillery systems,” — said a Pentagon official. It is noted that the US is determined to provide Ukraine with even more ammunition for the MLRS, and is also working to find other weapons as part of military assistance.

NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface to Air Missile System) units are being transferred to Ukraine. NASAMS is a mobile Norwegian anti-aircraft missile system designed to combat maneuvering aerodynamic targets at low and medium altitudes, a short-medium-range air defense system. A feature of the complex is its rapid deployment and performance. Specifications:

  • The range of destruction, depending on the missiles used, can be from 20 to 180 km.
  • The complex has up to 20 missiles.
  • Destruction height: up to 21 km.
  • Probability of hitting a target with one missile: 0.85
  • Reaction time: 10 sec.

Air defense weapons of this type will help close the sky and avoid tragedies like Kremenchuk, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv.

Regional Updates 

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1541934581569421313

In the Donetsk Oblast, the Russians took control of Novdruzhesk and Zolotarivka and likely captured Lysychansk. The Russian occupiers fired at Dobropillya, at least two dead and three wounded. Two children aged 4 and 7 are among the wounded.

Russo-Ukrainian War, Day 130: The Ukrainian army destroys Russian military warehouses and fortifications. ~~

In the Luhansk Oblast, “ Kadyrovets” opened fire on a Mosque in Sievierodonetsk at a group of people in the courtyard drawing water from a well, killing more than 20.

Russo-Ukrainian War, Day 130: The Ukrainian army destroys Russian military warehouses and fortifications. ~~

The Ukrainian army destroyed Russian ammunition near Popasna.

Near Lysychansk, the Ukrainian military burned a convoy of Russian equipment. Aviation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stopped the advance of the enemy near Lysychansk. Russian invaders consolidate their forces in Lysychansk and Verkhnekamenka. The settlements are still on fire, Russian invaders are shooting at the survivors from the artillery.

In the Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian army is defending the previously occupied positions and shelling the area.

In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Ukrainian army destroyed the occupiers’ warehouse, using M777.

In Melitopol, the Ukrainian army destroyed one of the four Russian military bases in the city.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1543479385327636482

In the Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukrainian aviation struck a Russian stronghold in the Mykolaiv Oblast. As a result, 1 Tor M1 anti-aircraft missile system, 2 infantry fighting vehicles, and a dozen invaders were destroyed.

At least 7 missiles were fired at Mykolaiv and its suburbs over the last 24 hours, hitting the city and the suburbs. One civilian killed.

In the Kherson Oblast, the Ukrainian army advanced in the north of Kherson oblast and recaptured the settlement of Ivanivka.

Russo-Ukrainian War, Day 130: The Ukrainian army destroys Russian military warehouses and fortifications. ~~

In the Odesa Oblast, Russians attacked recreation centers near Odesa again. Using the Su-30 fighter in the Bilhorod-Dnistrovsky, an X-31 missile fired again, hitting the utility building of the coastal recreation center. No significant damage or deaths reported.

In the Black Sea, Su-24 bombers under cover of Su-30 fighters carried out two bombing strikes on Zmiiny Island.

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • Russian-backed officials have said they will hold a referendum on Kherson Oblast joining the Russian Federation by autumn 2022. Russia is likely prioritising a pseudo-constitutional vote in an attempt to legitimise its control of the region.
  • On 28 June 2022, Ihor Kolykhaiev, the elected mayor of Kherson city, was arrested, highly likely in an attempt to suppress opposition to the occupation. However, widespread armed and peaceful resistance continues across occupied areas.
  • Kherson is the region which has been brought under the new Russian occupation most comprehensively since February.
  • Finding a constitutional solution for the occupation is likely a priority policy objective for Russia. It will highly likely be prepared to rig voting to achieve an acceptable result.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of Monday 3 July, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

 

Humanitarian 

A wave of resistance is gaining momentum in Mariupol. “Resistance in Mariupol is slowly but gaining momentum. So much so that the occupiers have begun another wave of checks and filtering. When entering Mariupol from the Zaporizhzhia region, even those who have already passed the filtering are subject to additional interrogation by the FSB,” said Pyotr Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol. He said that a wave of searches and inspections was going on in the Mariupol region. Next week, such checks are planned to be arranged in Mariupol itself.

More than 10 thousand Mariupol residents are in prisons of the Russian proxy-state DPR. People are held in cramped cells and receive almost no water and food. Mariupol residents do not have access to medical care and are subjected to various forms of torture, according to the Mariupol City Council.”I call on the International Red Cross and the UN to pay attention to the illegal detention of civilians in the city,” Vadym Boychenko said.

️Environmental 

Russia steals water from the Dnieper to deliver it to Crimea: losses amount to about UAH 4 billion. Data provided by the Ukrainian Ecological Inspectorate shows that these figures are indicative because now it is possible to monitor water consumption only with the help of satellite images. Such unauthorized and uncontrolled withdrawal of water from the Dnieper for the needs of Crimea can lead to extreme environmental, technical, and man-made consequences.

Legal 

To date, more than 15 million square meters of housing have been destroyed by the Russian army. More than 220,000 applied for state assistance. Approximately 800,000 people were left without housing or it is badly damaged and requires serious repairs due to the Russian aggression in Ukraine. The Government has allocated UAH 1.4 billion, before the heating season most of the housing will be repaired.

Support 

Marko Mihkelson, head of the Estonian parliamentary commission on foreign affairs, said that Russia should not be allowed to transit through Lithuania to Kaliningrad — there is no reason to relax the sanctions policy in order to appease the aggressor.

Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba discussed with the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell the upcoming steps of Ukraine on the way to the EU, as well as the preparation of the seventh package of sanctions against Russia.

Leaders from dozens of countries and international organizations will meet in Lugano, Switzerland next week to discuss a Marshall Plan for Ukraine. 

US Department of Defense announces additional assistance to Ukraine, which includes four artillery reconnaissance stations, according to Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. In addition, the United States will supply additional ammunition for HIMARS artillery systems, two advanced NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems, about 150,000 shells for 155 mm howitzers.

New Developments 

In the Chernihiv region, border guards found a hard drive with the data of an anti-aircraft artillery unit of the Russian troops participating in the war.

The European Commission plans to issue a clarification that will allow the Russian Federation to resume supplies to the Kaliningrad region through Lithuania. According to the document, Russia will be allowed to import sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad, but only in volumes comparable to supplies before the start of the war in Ukraine.

And here is Lukashenka’s fiery speech about how “they tried to strike at military facilities” from the territory of Ukraine. Kart, from where the attack was being prepared on Belarus, did not show on the eyebrows, he kept it sternly, in general, the potato grandfather keeps the mark.

https://t.me/uniannet/62576

️Preparations for a possible invasion from Belarus began in Lvov

This was announced by the mayor of the city of Sadovy. According to him, the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is unpredictable.

“In each district of the city, a defense headquarters will be created and additional training will be carried out for members of the volunteer terrorist defense units. For now, we will not transfer them to round-the-clock duty. But this decision can change at any time,” he said.

The option of forming reserve volunteer battalions is also being considered.

https://t.me/uniannet/62526

Assessment

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Saturday 3 July, 2022:

Ukrainian forces likely conducted a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk, resulting in the Russian seizure of the city on July 2. Geolocated footage showed Russian forces casually walking around northern and southeastern neighborhoods in Lysychansk in a way that suggests that there are few or no remaining Ukrainian forces in the city as of July 2.[1] Ukrainian military officials did not publicly announce a troop withdrawal but neither did they report on defensive battles around Lysychansk. Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Vadym Denysenko vaguely noted that Russian forces have a “high probability” of capturing Lysychansk but that they will have a difficult time advancing in Donetsk Oblast past Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.[2] Ukrainian National Guard Spokesperson Ruslan Muzychuk rejected reports of Russian forces seizing and encircling Lysychansk, but these denials are likely outdated or erroneous.[3] The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik, had previously claimed that Ukrainian forces began withdrawing from Lysychansk on June 28.[4] ISW will continue to monitor the situation.

Russian forces will likely establish control over the remaining territory of Luhansk Oblast in coming days and will likely then prioritize drives on Ukrainian positions in Siversk before turning to Sloviansk and Bakhmut. A Ukrainian withdrawal to Siversk would allow Ukrainian forces reduce the risk of immediate encirclement, but Ukrainian forces may continue a fighting withdrawal to a line near the E40 highway from Sloviansk to Bakhmut.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov inspected Russian troop groupings in Ukraine on July 2.[5] The Russian MoD posted a slideshow of images that reportedly prove that Gerasimov still holds his position as Chief of General Staff and that he had recently been in Ukraine, but notably did not include any video footage of Gerasimov’s purported inspection of Russian troops. This post was likely a response to recent speculation that Gerasimov had been removed from his post as part of the Kremlin’s purge of high-level Russian military leadership due to Russian failures in Ukraine. The Russian MoD amplified a claim that Ukrainian media has been lying about Gerasimov’s removal and stated that Gerasimov is still serving as the Chief of the General Staff.[6] The hasty presentation of a slideshow that does not clearly demonstrate that Gerasimov was recently performing his duties in Ukraine suggests that the Russian leadership is sensitive to rumors of a purge of senior Russian officers or possibly to the impression that the senior most officers are absent or uninvolved in the conflict. The Kremlin likely also seeks to retain or rebuild trust in Russian military leadership against the backdrop of major organizational restructuring, failures, and high casualties, as ISW has previously reported.[7]

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces entered Lysychansk and advanced within the city on July 2.
  • Russian forces are conducting offensive operations southwest of Lysychansk likely to push westward towards Siversk and complete the capture of the entirety of Luhansk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground assaults north of Sloviansk.
  • Russian forces conducted limited attacks southwest of Donetsk City but did not make any confirmed gains.
  • Ukrainian troops are likely planning to threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) throughout Kharkiv Oblast using Western-supplied weapons.
  • Ukrainian counterattacks and partisan activity continue to force Russian troops to prioritize defensive operations along the Southern Axis.
  • Proxy leadership may be setting conditions for the direct annexation of proxy republics by the Russian Federation.

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