Interactive COVID-19: Ukraine and world

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Ukraine



The first coronavirus case was registered in Ukraine on 3 March 2020 in Chernivtsi – a Ukrainian man who came from Italy by car was tested positive. Since then, cases in the country have been rising at quasi-exponential rates, with the epicenter of the epidemic being in Chernivetska Oblast.

Several sources of data are available for studying coronavirus in Ukraine:

  1. The Ukrainian Ministry of Health, updated daily. This data goes into our counter at the top of the page, as well at the top of our Tableau wiz;
  2. The John Hopkins University Center for Systems Science, also updated daily. This center accumulates coronavirus statistics for all the world countries;
  3. Ukraine’s Department of Regional Policy, which created a Tableau viz with detailed regional statistics of coronavirus infections.
  4. Analytical dashboards by Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers showing the situation in Ukraine’s hospitals and regional statistics.
  5. Analytical dashboards by Ukraine’s National Health Service (UNHS) also showing a detailed regional breakdown of cases and also counters of suspected and confirmed cases, as well as hospitalized and self-isolated patients. The raw data for this dashboard can be downloaded here; we use it to create the map of regional statistics in our Tableau wizzes lower. Note: this data differs from the one provided by the Ukrainian Ministry of Health, due to differences in reporting registered cases. While the MoH reports the new number of confirmed cases daily, the UNHS sorts them out by the date when the tests were collected.

These sources of data may differ slightly between each other.

The growth is largely regional – while some regions have a large outbreak, some have managed to contain the spread of the disease:

On 11 March, a quarantine was enforced, with education institutions being closed down. On 13 March, Ukraine saw its first coronavirus death, cut off international travel and sealed its borders for foreigners. Internal public transport has ceased as well. Public transport in Kyiv is restricted to essential categories of employees – medics, bank employees, supermarket workers, etc. Non-essential shopping, as well as all restaurants and recreation, have been shut down, and public gatherings with more than 10 participating prohibited, religious gatherings included. On 26 March, an emergency situation was introduced. On 1 April, stricter quarantine measures were introduced, making it illegal to:

  • visit public areas without a mask or respirator;
  • to move in groups more than two people, save for work necessity or to accompany a child;
  • visit public areas for under-14s;
  • visit parks, recreation areas, beaches, forested areas, except for one person to walk pets, except cases of work necessity;
  • visit playgrounds and sports grounds;
  • conduct all mass culture, recreation, sports, social, religious, advertising, and other events, in which more than 10 people take place, except measures necessary for the state or self-government organs to function, etc.

These restrictions were in place until 12 May. Afterward, Ukraine, like many countries, eased its lockdown amid growing resistance to the measures amid accusations of selected businesses getting preferential treatment despite quarantine measures while extending the quarantine till 25 May. The following venues were reopened:

  • parks and recreation areas;
  • beauty salons and barbershops;
  • the majority of shops;
  • restaurants will offer take-away;
  • cafes and restaurants will offer outdoor seating;
  • museums and libraries;
  • professional sports teams will resume training in closed sports bases;
  • servicing for home appliances;
  • dentists, auditors, lawyers, notaries, etc.

On 22 May, Ukraine’s Ministry of Health issued guidelines to further ease the COVID-19 lockdown, the so-called Phase 2. The guidelines are to be applied on a regional basis based on the epidemic situation in the region: if infection rates in the last 7 days are below 12 people per 100,000 citizens, if bed occupancy in health facilities designated for hospitalization of patients with confirmed COVID-19 cases is less than 50%, and if the average number of PCR tests is over 12 per 100,000 citizens in the past seven days.

On 22 June, the guidelines on the MOZ website were changed: to have the quarantine lifted, bed occupancy still has to be under 50%, there have to be over 24 tests / 100,000 citizens, of which there have to be under 11% of positive cases (we are still keeping the infection rates on our tableau map, though).

As of 24 May, eight Ukrainian regions did not meet these criteria: Volyn, Rivnenska, Lvivska, Zakarpatska, Chernivetska, Kyivska, Dnipropetrovska, Luhanska, and Donetska oblasts. The capital city of Kyiv got in with a squeeze.

As of 24 May, eight regions had not lifted their lockdown

The quarantine will be eased in phases. The following will be allowed once again:

Starting on May 22:

  • All public transportation, intercity bus transportation, except metro systems and inter-regional transportation
  • Hotels (excluding restaurants and gyms)
  • Church services (no more than 1 person per 10m2)
  • Sporting events without spectators (up to 50 participants)

Starting on May 25:

  • Daycare centers
  • Metro systems

Starting on June 1:

  • Sports gyms and education facilities (group classes up to 10 people)
  • Inter-regional rail travel
  • Inter-regional bus transportation

Starting on June 10:

  • Inside seating at restaurants and coffee shops
  • Cultural institutions
  • Cultural events (up to 1 person per 5m2)

Starting on June 15:

Ukraine requires foreigners entering the country from a country of origin with over 40 active cases per 100,000 of population to undergo a two-week period of self-isolation. But in fact, many Ukrainian regions do not meet that criterion:

The Reproduction number, or R

As of mid-June, as the quarantine measures started to be relaxed, COVID-19 infection rates started growing again. On 4 June, Ukraine’s Ministry of Health stated that 9 regions are not ready to soften the lockdown, while on 1 June the number was only 6. That day, Ukraine registered its record number of new daily cases – 588.

Offering further pessimism is a graph of the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Ukraine, or simply R. It is a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread. It’s the number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to, on average.

Some diseases, like measles, spread very quickly – it has a reproduction number of 15 in populations without immunity. The new coronavirus, known officially as Sars-CoV-2, has a reproduction number of about three, but estimates vary.

This is why nations have imposed lockdowns around the world: to lower the R so that eventually the outbreak of disease subsides.

Dr. Ihor Ivanov, a researcher at the Institute of Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, has been modeling reproduction numbers for COVID-19 in Ukraine. His results are in the graph below.

On the Y-axis is the sum of new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days. On the X-axis is the R number calculated by Dr. Ivanov. On 16 April, the R number was the highest: one person infected more than 1.5 people, on average. Then R gradually lowered, until it passed the threshold of 1 (the thick black vertical line) on 10 May, when 3350 new people were contracting COVID-19 per week, meaning that one person infected fewer than one other person, on average.

After that, we see both the number of infected people and R falling until 19 May, after which the trend is reversed – both R and the number of new infected people rises, until on 30 May R is again over 1, meaning that one infected person will pass on the disease to more than one other person and the outbreak of disease grows.

Did the quarantine which started to be relaxed on 12 May have something to do with this? It may very well be – as the number of newly infected people will be registered on tests with a lag of around a week.

Graph: Ihor Ivanov, edited by Euromaidan Press

One must take the coronavirus statistics in Ukraine, however, with a grain of salt: there has been very little testing. With [wce_code id=24] tests carried out as of [wce_code id=22] for Ukraine’s roughly 42-million population, this leaves the country with one of the lowest total testing rates in the world.

See more live coverage of Coronavirus in Ukraine at Ukraine World’s liveblog.

World




Meanwhile, coronavirus cases and deaths continue to rise in the world:

So far, daily cases have been rising, but daily deaths were on the decline:

Let’s break down the new daily cases, total cases, deaths, and active cases by country and region.

And on a map:



The following graph shows the number of active cases per country, allowing to track which countries have managed to stop the spread of the infection, and where it is still growing:

Starting from 15 June, Ukraine will admit foreigners with a low spread of COVID-19 into the country without an observation period. Low spread of COVID-19 is established to be under 40 per 100,000 of population (for more, see here).

In a table, this looks like this:

Coronavirus is a type of disease that spreads exponentially. The most important variable describing its development, the growth rate, or the number of days in which cases of infection and death double. With exponential growth, the number of coronavirus patients can explode in no time at all; this growth is different from the linear growth we are all accustomed to – see this Our World in Data explainer to find out more.

Countries around the world have taken measures to “flatten the curve” of rising coronavirus infections in order to save the health system from being overwhelmed and decrease fatality rates. To analyze the rate of new infections, it is useful to view the data with the logarithmic scale, like so:

One may easily notice in the logarithmic scaling (it can be toggled on and off by pressing “LOG” and “LINEAR” at the top of the Y-axis) that COVID-19 cases have more or less stabilized in China and Western Europe, they are growing in Brazil, India, Russia, and slightly less so in Ukraine.

When it comes to the daily increase of COVID-19 cases, the number of new daily cases is tapering off in Western Europe and is plateauing in the USA and Turkey. In Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and India, they are going up, however. Ukraine is following Poland’s trajectory, with new daily confirmed cases gently increasing, but staying overall low.

In terms of absolute numbers, at present, the USA, Brazil, Russia are hotspots of COVID-19 growth, with the USA leading the growth at nearly 30,000 new cases daily. New infection rates in Western Europe have dropped somewhat.

In terms of growth of COVID-19 cases per million people, Bahrein, Qatar, Kuwait, Ecuador, Belarus, Chile, Peru are the leaders.Overall, the most coronavirus-hit countries, i.e. countries with the most confirmed COVID-10 cases per million people, are turning out to be Western Europe, Sweden, Norway, Canada, the USA, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, the UAE, Peru, Ecuador, Israel, Estonia, and Serbia. In Africa, many cases have been confirmed in Djibouti.

When it comes to the nations where coronavirus has caused the most deaths per million, Western Europe is most severely hit. Sweden, a country which had reluctantly introduced only selected quarantine measures, stands out among the Scandinavian countries, where infections and deaths have been relatively low.


However, the logarithmic scale reveals that growth rates of deaths appear to be tapering off in Western Europe and the USA.

Find lots of more graphs and explanations at Our World in Data, and come back to this page later for updates.

Read more:

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