Interactive COVID-19: Ukraine and world

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Ukraine



The first coronavirus case was registered in Ukraine on 3 March 2020 in Chernivtsi – a Ukrainian man who came from Italy by car was tested positive. Since then, cases in the country had risen at quasi-exponential rates, slowing down during the imposition of a nationwide lockdown, and then rising again after it was lifted.

Several sources of data are available for studying coronavirus in Ukraine:

  1. The Ukrainian Ministry of Health, updated daily. This data goes into our counter at the top of the page, as well at the top of our Tableau wiz;
  2. The John Hopkins University Center for Systems Science, also updated daily. This center accumulates coronavirus statistics for all the world countries;
  3. Ukraine’s Department of Regional Policy, which created a Tableau viz with detailed regional statistics of coronavirus infections.
  4. Analytical dashboards by Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers showing the situation in Ukraine’s hospitals and regional statistics.
  5. Analytical dashboards by Ukraine’s National Health Service (UNHS) also showing a detailed regional breakdown of cases and also counters of suspected and confirmed cases, as well as hospitalized and self-isolated patients. The raw data for this dashboard can be downloaded here; we use it to create the map of regional statistics in our Tableau wizzes lower. Note: this data differs from the one provided by the Ukrainian Ministry of Health, due to differences in reporting registered cases. While the MoH reports the new number of confirmed cases daily, the UNHS sorts them out by the date when the tests were collected.

These sources of data may differ slightly between each other.

The growth is largely regional – while some regions have a large outbreak, some have managed to contain the spread of the disease:

On 11 March, a quarantine was enforced, with education institutions being closed down. On 13 March, Ukraine saw its first coronavirus death, cut off international travel and sealed its borders for foreigners. Internal public transport has ceased as well. Public transport in Kyiv is restricted to essential categories of employees – medics, bank employees, supermarket workers, etc. Non-essential shopping, as well as all restaurants and recreation, have been shut down, and public gatherings with more than 10 participating prohibited, religious gatherings included. On 26 March, an emergency situation was introduced. On 1 April, stricter quarantine measures were introduced.

 

See the restrictions

It was prohibited to:

  • visit public areas without a mask or respirator;
  • to move in groups more than two people, save for work necessity or to accompany a child;
  • visit public areas for under-14s;
  • visit parks, recreation areas, beaches, forested areas, except for one person to walk pets, except cases of work necessity;
  • visit playgrounds and sports grounds;
  • conduct all mass culture, recreation, sports, social, religious, advertising, and other events, in which more than 10 people take place, except measures necessary for the state or self-government organs to function, etc.

These restrictions were in place until 12 May. Afterward, Ukraine, like many countries, eased its lockdown amid growing resistance to the measures amid accusations of selected businesses getting preferential treatment despite quarantine measures while extending the quarantine till 25 May. Most venues were reopened:

See which ones

  • parks and recreation areas;
  • beauty salons and barbershops;
  • the majority of shops;
  • restaurants will offer take-away;
  • cafes and restaurants will offer outdoor seating;
  • museums and libraries;
  • professional sports teams will resume training in closed sports bases;
  • servicing for home appliances;
  • dentists, auditors, lawyers, notaries, etc.

On 22 May, Ukraine’s Ministry of Health issued guidelines to further ease the COVID-19 lockdown, the so-called Phase 2. The guidelines are to be applied on a regional basis based on the epidemic situation in the region: if infection rates in the last 7 days are below 12 people per 100,000 citizens, if bed occupancy in health facilities designated for hospitalization of patients with confirmed COVID-19 cases is less than 50%, and if the average number of PCR tests is over 12 per 100,000 citizens in the past seven days. On 22 June, the guidelines on the MOZ website were changed: to have the quarantine lifted, bed occupancy still has to be under 50%, there have to be over 24 tests / 100,000 citizens, of which there have to be under 11% of positive cases.

The quarantine was eased in phases, from May 22 to June 15, when Ukraine relaunched air travel.

See the details of the phases:

Starting on May 22:

  • All public transportation, intercity bus transportation, except metro systems and inter-regional transportation
  • Hotels (excluding restaurants and gyms)
  • Church services (no more than 1 person per 10m2)
  • Sporting events without spectators (up to 50 participants)

Starting on May 25:

  • Daycare centers
  • Metro systems

Starting on June 1:

  • Sports gyms and education facilities (group classes up to 10 people)
  • Inter-regional rail travel
  • Inter-regional bus transportation

Starting on June 10:

  • Inside seating at restaurants and coffee shops
  • Cultural institutions
  • Cultural events (up to 1 person per 5m2)

Starting on June 15:

Currently, Ukraine requires foreigners entering the countries determined to be with a high level of COVID-19 infections to undergo a two-week period of self-isolation. The list is published at the website of the Ministry of Health; currently, countries where the number of active cases per 100,000 of population is higher than Ukraine’s are “red” and those that are lower are “green.”

On 1 August, new quarantine rules came into force: the country adopted a microregional approach for restrictions.

If previously an entire oblast was subjected to stricter quarantine measures, including bans on public transport, cultural events, public gatherings, restaurant operation etc., in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, now only the affected regions and cities will be affected.

Oblasts will be monitored for violating at least one of four criteria:

  1. If more than 50% of hospital beds intended for COVID-19 patients are occupied;
  2. If there are less than 24 PLR and IFA tests per 100,000 of the population per 7 days;
  3. If the proportion of positive cases exceeds 11%;
  4. If the dynamics of new COVID-19 cases exceeds 10%.

If an oblast exceeds one of these criteria, then its districts will be assigned specific statuses. Those contributing under 5% of the violation will be “green” districts, “yellow” districts are those providing 5-20% of the violation, and “red” districts are responsible for over 50% of violation.

A live map has been launched with the relevant color codes for each region.

Currently, quarantine restrictions vary according to the color of the zone.

See how exactly

In all of Ukraine 

Masks should be worn in public buildings and transport, documents should be carried in the streets, persons should not leave the places where they are undergoing self-isolation or observation.

In the green zone

Mass events should include no more than 1 person per 5 sq meters, theaters and movie theaters should be no more than 50% full. The number of passengers in public transport should not exceed the seating capacity of the vehicle.

In the yellow zone

Apart from the rules listed above, visits to social protection institutions are restricted;

In the orange zone

Apart from the rules listed above, mass events are allowed with no more than 100 participants and no more than 1 person per 20 sq m, no hospitality businesses except hotels are allowed to operate; restaurants and clubs are not allowed to operate from 24:00 to 7:00 (except delivery and takeout). Groups in education institutions may contain no more than 20 pupils (except for regular schools and kindergartens), planned hospitalizations are suspended, sports clubs may not operate, children’s camps are suspended.

In the red zone

Apart from the rules above, public transport and all education is suspended, culture institutions, restaurants, shopping malls, fitness centers, and non-essential shopping and services are prohibited. The work of social servicing institutions is restricted.

28 August: borders resealed

The Ukrainian authorities, aiming to stop the annual Hasidic pilgrimage to the city of Uman, resealed the borders to foreigners. The restrictions were in place until 28 September.

Exceptions are made for the following categories of foreigners:

  • People with a permanent or temporary residence permit in Ukraine;
  • Refugees or those in need of special protection;
  • Diplomats, employees of international organizations and their families, as well as those officially invited by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs;
  • NATO military instructors or the Alliance’s Partnership for Peace program, which will train Ukrainian troops or travel at the invitation of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.
  • Those who pass through Ukraine in transit and leave it within two days (and there are relevant documents);
    People studying in Ukraine;
  • Foreigners serving in the Armed Forces;
  • Bus drivers and crew members of planes, ships and trains that have regular routes in Ukraine;
  • Cultural figures who come at the invitation of cultural institutions, and one accompanying person;
  • Athletes at official competitions and those accompanying them;
  • Carriers of hematopoietic stem cells for transplantation;
  • Those undergoing treatment in Ukrainian medical institutions;
  • Foreigners with first-line relatives in Ukraine;
  • Those with an official work permit in Ukraine;
  • Technical specialists who will come at the invitation of Ukrainian companies.

September 30: borders reopened.

Foreigners are allowed to enter if they have an insurance certificate (with some exceptions). Ukrainian citizens and foreigners arriving from high-risk countries are required to self-isolate at home, if they install the Diya app on their smartphone, or undergo observation. There are exceptions to this requirement:

See the exceptions:

  • children under 12 years of age;
  • persons arriving in Ukraine to study in higher education facilities;
  • citizens of states with high numbers of COVID-19 cases, who have not been to these states 14 days prior to arrival, or are in transit through the territory of Ukraine and have papers proving them leaving the territory of Ukraine within two days after arrival;
  • staff members of diplomatic missions and consular posts of foreign states, missions of international organizations accredited in Ukraine, as well as their family members;
  • drivers and/or crew members of freight vehicles, buses on regular international routes, aircraft, sea and river ships, trains and locomotives;
  • instructors of the armed forces of NATO member states and NATO “Partnership for Peace” program member states, who participate in trainings for the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
  • cultural figures arriving at the invitation of cultural institutions as well as one accompanying person for each of them;
  • persons transporting hematopoietic stem cells for transplantation;
  • persons who have proof of negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for COVID-19 done no more than 48 hours prior.

The Effective Reproduction number, or Rt

In mid-June, as the quarantine measures started to be relaxed, COVID-19 infection rates started growing again and have been doing so ever since.

A way to assess how quickly the virus is replicating in Ukraine is the effective reproduction number, or simply Rt – a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread. It is the number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to, on average.

Some diseases, like measles, spread very quickly – it has a reproduction number of 15 in populations without immunity. The new coronavirus, known officially as Sars-CoV-2, has a reproduction number of about three, but estimates vary.

This is why nations have imposed lockdowns around the world: to lower the Rt so that eventually the outbreak of disease subsides.

The Ukrainian website texty.org.ua has made a model of Rt for Ukrainian oblasts based on data by Ukraine’s National Health Service. We have built a wiz based on their calculations below.

One must take the coronavirus statistics in Ukraine, however, with a grain of salt: there has been very little testing; Ukraine’s testing rates are one of the lowest in the world.

See more live coverage of Coronavirus in Ukraine at Ukraine World’s liveblog.

World




Meanwhile, coronavirus cases and deaths continue to rise in the world:

So far, daily cases have been rising, but daily deaths were on the decline:

Let’s break down the new daily cases, total cases, deaths, and active cases by country and region.

And on a map:



The following graph shows the number of active cases per country, allowing to track which countries have managed to stop the spread of the infection, and where it is still growing:

At present, foreigners coming from countries with more than 55 active COVID-19 cases per 100,000 are required to self-isolate for two weeks or do a COVID-19 test. We have mapped the 3-day average of this indicator below. This criterion was raised to 55 on 15 July; before that, it stood at 40, when Ukraine first opened its borders on 15 June (for more, see here).

In a table, this looks like this:

Coronavirus is a type of disease that spreads exponentially. The most important variable describing its development, the growth rate, or the number of days in which cases of infection and death double. With exponential growth, the number of coronavirus patients can explode in no time at all; this growth is different from the linear growth we are all accustomed to – see this Our World in Data explainer to find out more.

Countries around the world have taken measures to “flatten the curve” of rising coronavirus infections in order to save the health system from being overwhelmed and decrease fatality rates. To analyze the rate of new infections, it is useful to view the data with the logarithmic scale, like so:

One may easily notice in the logarithmic scaling (it can be toggled on and off by pressing “LOG” and “LINEAR” at the top of the Y-axis) where COVID-19 cases have stabilized and where they are growing.

Also useful is the graph of new daily confirmed COVID-19 cases with a color scale of positive rates, i.e. the percent of tests done which end up positive for COVID-19. The higher this percentage, the more likely it is that the epidemic is spreading and many cases are not being registered.

In terms of absolute numbers, the picture looks like this:

In terms of growth of COVID-19 cases per million people, like this: Overall, the most coronavirus-hit countries, can be seen on this map:

When it comes to the nations where coronavirus has caused the most deaths per million, like this:


However, the logarithmic scale reveals that growth rates of deaths appear to be tapering off in Western Europe and the USA.

Find lots of more graphs and explanations at Our World in Data, and come back to this page later for updates.

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