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Analysis

549 posts

Analysis of events in Ukraine

logistics centre in Bashkortostan, Russia,

5 minute read

Analysis

Is a fifth or well over half of Wildberries gone—or can both counts be right?

Estimates of how much of Wildberries Ukraine has burned run from a fifth of the network to well over half. Which is right depends on what you count. And some of the loudest claims don’t survive a check.

byPeeter Helme

Vladimir Putin tours the Uralvagonzavod tank plant in Nizhny Tagil, part of Russia’s state-owned Rostec defense conglomerate, on 15 February 2024. Credit: Ramil Sitdikov/RIA Novosti via Kremlin.ru

7 minute read

Analysis

Russia’s biggest weapons maker has been under EU sanctions since 2022. Its 482 subsidiaries are the loophole.

A new NAKO analysis maps 482 companies inside Rostec and finds Western sanctions reach only a fraction of them—which is how the microelectronics in Russia's drones and missiles keep getting through.

byViktoriia VyshnivskaandbyKateryna Biesiedina

A woman drives a tractor in Ukraine. Then-Deputy Economy Minister Tetyana Berezhna said agricultural companies in Poltava Oblast had begun ordering state-funded tractor training for women as part of a program opening traditionally male-dominated professions to female workers. Photo: Tetyana Berezhna/Facebook

9 minute read

Analysis

Ukraine funds its war from wages, and a 1971 law keeps millions of women from earning them

Ukraine is short 4.5 million workers and 81% of its registered unemployed are women—yet a Soviet-era law still bars them from night shifts in the industries most desperate to fill them.

byOleh Ivanov

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joins leaders of the Coalition of the Willing in Paris on 13 July 2026. Representatives of 40 countries discussed air defense, sanctions on Russia, winter energy support, and longer-term military assistance for Ukraine.

11 minute read

Analysis

Europe promised Ukraine a deterrence force. The missiles that would make it work arrive in 2029.

The only deep-strike production line opening sooner runs through Ukrainian factories.

byThomas Keller

Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov in Germany, on 15 April 2026. Source: Fedorov

5 minute read

Analysis

Ukraine’s ousted defense minister took drone contracts away from the generals. Now they may take them back

The suppliers who thrived under the old system are already pushing to bring it back.

byPeeter Helme

12 minute read

Analysis

Ukraine’s defense minister explained how the country buys weapons—after he was sacked

A sacked minister spent 90 minutes explaining how Ukraine buys shells. He told more than the ministry had published in six months.

byPeeter Helme

Zelenskyy, Magyar, Tusk, and Costa confer around a table during an EU meeting, with one official in black standing at the center.

12 minute read

Analysis

Hungary swapped its pro-Russian prime minister. Yet it is still slowing Ukraine’s path to the EU.

Hungary has allowed two stages of Ukraine’s EU talks to open while holding up the other four. Péter Magyar is no Viktor Orbán, but years of anti-Ukraine politics might still make blocking Kyiv safer than helping it.

byDaniel Thomas

A US Patriot missile launches, beside Zelenskyy and Trump meeting at the Ankara NATO summit, July 2026.

10 minute read

Analysis

Washington said Ukraine’s Patriot shortage was solved. Lockheed and RTX hadn’t been told.

Ukraine's NATO ambassador cheered the summit. The analysts watching it didn’t.

byDaniel Thomas

Marta Kostyuk Ukrainian tennis star Russia return sport

10 minute read

Analysis

The Marta effect: Ukraine’s tennis players are doing what its diplomats can’t

The Ukrainian tennis star Marta Kostyuk is through to the semifinal at Wimbledon, the most prestigious tennis tournament in the world. But for Marta, and her fellow Ukrainian tennis players, this is about much more than tennis.

byMichael Andersen

A drone operated by Ukraine’s ALASTOR special unit, part of the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade, strikes two Russian soldiers hiding inside the wreckage of military equipment in Pokrovsk. Donetsk Oblast, January 2025. Source: Sternenko.

16 minute read

Analysis

Russia now loses more soldiers than it recruits. But the war won’t end because of that.

For the first time, Russia’s losses outrun its recruits—four years of General Staff data explain why that still won’t end the war.

byHans Petter Midttun

13 minute read

Analysis

Ukraine can win the battles. Without the word “victory,” it loses the war.

NATO's former deputy commander says no one but Ukraine names victory as the goal. Ukraine's former defense minister warns that without naming it, even a battlefield win is no victory at all.

byAlya Shandra

A Patriot air-defense system firing an interceptor, beside Ukrainian and German defense ministers signing an anti-ballistic missile agreement in Brussels.

10 minute read

Analysis

Towards Clearer Skies? What Ukraine gets out of the most recent Ramstein meeting—and what it doesn’t

The $4 billion buys Patriot interceptors now — but Ukraine's home-grown Freya, five times cheaper, left Brussels with a partnership and no cash.

byDaniel Thomas

Far-right marchers in Warsaw carry an anti-Ukrainian banner reading UKRO POLIN STOP over merged Polish and Ukrainian flags

12 minute read

Analysis

Poland and Ukraine’s memory war has spilled into the streets. Its consequences might be disastrous.

A wartime decree, a revoked medal, and a teenager beaten on a Warsaw bridge — why the unsettled past is reopening at the worst possible moment for both nations.

byDaniel Thomas

Aftermath of the strike on the Chonhar Bridge (archive photo) (Photo: Alexander Polegenko / TASS)

10 minute read

Analysis

Russian forces depend on Crimea. Ukraine is turning it into an island.

“Crimea is the center of gravity of this war for the Russians”

byIgor Kossov

8 minute read

Analysis

EU urgency to dump Rosatom is growing but Russia will use every lever to prevent it

This is part three of a series of three articles exploring Rosatom, its role in the war in Ukraine, and Moscow’s international influence.

byIgor Kossov

9 minute read

Analysis

Ukraine’s vape market is 93% illegal. The trail leads to a sanctioned Russian oligarch.

Smuggled from Poland and barely taxed, the shadow trade drains a country at war—and the network behind it ties back to Oleg Boyko.

byPeeter Helme

Surprise! Rosatom, that Russian “energy” giant, is actually building nukes for Putin

9 minute read

Analysis

Next five years: Rosatom’s “strategic window” to lock in European dependence

This is part two of a series of three articles exploring Rosatom, its role in the war in Ukraine, and Moscow’s international influence.

byIgor Kossov

7 minute read

Analysis

A Putin-list oligarch runs Poland’s vape market. The EU won’t sanction him.

Ukraine, Poland, and Australia sanctioned Oleg Boyko. Brussels left him off—as his lawyers move.

byPeeter Helme

8 minute read

Analysis

Not just nuclear power: how Rosatom fuels Russia’s war machine

This is part one of a series of three articles exploring Rosatom, its role in the war in Ukraine, and Moscow’s international influence.

byIgor Kossov

drones set moscow region fuel military sites fire russia claims downed more than 1000 · post elma technopark zelenograd part after ukrainian drone strike 17 2026 пожежа на території солнечногорську

10 minute read

Analysis

Ukraine’s attack on Moscow: Show of force? Yes. Path of revenge? Not quite.

Moscow's air defense "never coped under the pressure of regular UAVs."

byIgor Kossov

Analysis

Is a fifth or well over half of Wildberries gone—or can both counts be right?

Russia’s biggest weapons maker has been under EU sanctions since 2022. Its 482 subsidiaries are the loophole.

Ukraine funds its war from wages, and a 1971 law keeps millions of women from earning them

Europe promised Ukraine a deterrence force. The missiles that would make it work arrive in 2029.

Ukraine’s ousted defense minister took drone contracts away from the generals. Now they may take them back

Ukraine’s defense minister explained how the country buys weapons—after he was sacked

Hungary swapped its pro-Russian prime minister. Yet it is still slowing Ukraine’s path to the EU.

Washington said Ukraine’s Patriot shortage was solved. Lockheed and RTX hadn’t been told.

The Marta effect: Ukraine’s tennis players are doing what its diplomats can’t

Russia now loses more soldiers than it recruits. But the war won’t end because of that.

Ukraine can win the battles. Without the word “victory,” it loses the war.

Towards Clearer Skies? What Ukraine gets out of the most recent Ramstein meeting—and what it doesn’t

Poland and Ukraine’s memory war has spilled into the streets. Its consequences might be disastrous.

Russian forces depend on Crimea. Ukraine is turning it into an island.

EU urgency to dump Rosatom is growing but Russia will use every lever to prevent it

Ukraine’s vape market is 93% illegal. The trail leads to a sanctioned Russian oligarch.

Next five years: Rosatom’s “strategic window” to lock in European dependence

A Putin-list oligarch runs Poland’s vape market. The EU won’t sanction him.

Not just nuclear power: how Rosatom fuels Russia’s war machine

Ukraine’s attack on Moscow: Show of force? Yes. Path of revenge? Not quite.

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