Russian forces have made advances across several sectors of the front line while Ukrainian forces successfully recaptured the ground near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast.
The Russian offensive is a part of Moscow’s intensified push to fully occupy Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts before potential peace talks following Donald Trump’s return to power in the US.
In 2024, Russian forces captured approximately 4,168 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, primarily comprising open fields and small settlements, as was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This expansion came at a significant human cost, with Russia sustaining an estimated 427,000 casualties over the year, averaging about 102 casualties per square kilometer gained.
Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces seized the towns of Ivanivka and Terny northeast of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, as evidenced by geolocated footage, according to the Institute for the Study of War and DeepState.
The situation in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, has seen movement from both sides. Ukrainian forces regained positions in the central Refractory Plant, while Russian forces advanced along Tolstoho Street in the western part of the city.
In Toretsk, both sides reported territorial gains. Ukrainian forces recaptured positions in southern Shcherbynivka, while Russian forces advanced at the Toretska Mine and along Stepana Razina Street.
On 8 January, the ISW already reported that Russian forces advanced in the northwestern part of Toretsk and reached the city’s administrative boundary in one area after several weeks of more intensive Russian offensive operations in this area.
The ISW notes that Russian forces are making slower progress in the Pokrovsk direction, with a Russian military blogger reporting that it takes “several days to seize small settlements comprised of two to three streets.”
On 11 January, DeepState also claimed that Russian forces fully occupied Kurakhove near Pokrovsk. However, Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group, stated that Ukrainian forces maintain positions within Kurakhove, therefore it is premature to speak about complete Russian capture of the city.
In Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces conducted a mechanized assault with 13 vehicles, resulting in marginal advances in the eastern part of the settlement.
Kharkiv Oblast
In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces made progress along the Russia-Ukraine border near Kupiansk, with the Ukrainian General Staff confirming Russian advances north of Topoli. On 20 January, DeepState also reported Russian advances in Dvorichna in Kharkiv Oblast.
Kursk Oblast
The ISW reported that Russian forces advanced south of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, with geolocated footage confirming their progress in eastern Kurilovka. Multiple Russian units, including the 56th Airborne Regiment and Chechen “Kashtan” Spetsnaz Detachment, are operating in the area.
DeepState also wrote that Ukrainian forces restored positions in Makhnivka in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
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