EU could double aid by buying Ukrainian-made weapons amid potential US cuts

European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius suggested dramatically increasing military support for Ukraine by redirecting existing aid funds into Ukrainian defense production, potentially doubling weapons deliveries to the country.

Kubilius outlined how the current €40 billion annual military aid from the EU and US could be transformed.

"We can spend that same amount procuring modern weapons in Ukraine — which would cost about half as much as those made in the EU or US," he stated on X.

He suggests this strategy would increase Ukraine's real defense support to €80 billion equivalent and double weapons volume while gaining access to Ukrainian drone warfare expertise.

According to The Economist, Ukrainian armaments production has surged from $1 billion in 2022 to an estimated $15 billion this year. Hundreds of technology startups have joined state-run manufacturers to produce artillery, ammunition, armored vehicles, and drones.

These domestically produced drones have transformed the battlefield. Short-range drones can identify and eliminate tanks and exposed troops, while longer-range variants strike command centers and military infrastructure. Ukrainian officials report their forces now achieve a kill ratio of seven to ten Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty.

Ukrainian defense industry officials indicate production capacity exists to manufacture $35 billion worth of equipment annually, constrained only by available contracts. Kubilius noted that newly established Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loans, backed by the EU, provide member states the mechanism to finance this procurement strategy.

Such direct procurement from Ukrainian manufacturers would address what The Economist identified as Europe's challenge: most defense companies are reluctant to scale up production without long-term contracts. However, Denmark has already initiated direct procurement from Ukrainian manufacturers, with other European nations expected to follow.

Denmark's pioneering approach is known as the “Danish model," which channels funds directly to Ukrainian defense manufacturers.

The model enables faster and larger-scale production of critical equipment like long-range missiles and drones, with Ukraine advising on priorities and allies vetting producers independently. 

In 2024, Ukraine’s defense industry received €390 million from interest on frozen Russian assets through the Danish model. Alongside contributions from Denmark (€125 million), Sweden (€20 million), and Iceland (€2.7 million), these funds enabled the delivery of nearly €538 million worth of military equipment to Ukraine’s armed forces.