Experts: Europe must double Ukraine’s aid to €82 billion annually if US support ends

Baltic and Nordic countries contribute over 2% of their GDP to Ukraine while larger European economies like France and Spain provide just 0.1-0.2%, revealing deep disparities in burden-sharing, a new analysis says.
The European Council illuminated with the Ukrainian flag on Europe Day in Brussels in 2022. Source: The European Union.
Experts: Europe must double Ukraine’s aid to €82 billion annually if US support ends

Europe is now providing more assistance to Ukraine than the US, following the change of administration in Washington, although America still remains the leader in military support, according to experts at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, who prepared their latest analysis of Ukraine’s aid – Ukraine Support Tracker.

US assistance stalled after President Donald Trump took office on 20 January 2025. No new military, financial, or humanitarian aid has been announced since the US announced its last package on 9 January worth €480 million in military aid, including air defense systems, air-to-ground missiles, and equipment for F-16 fighter jets, under the administration of Joe Biden. 

According to the estimates, Europe has allocated €23 billion more than the US, covering aid up to February 2025.

However, in terms of military support, the US still leads, though by a small margin: since February 2022, Washington has provided about €65 billion in military aid to Ukraine, approximately €1 billion more than Europe.

If no further aid packages are coming from the US, but support remains at the current level, Europe would need to double its annual contribution. This would mean Europe would have to increase its annual support from the current €44 billion to around €82 billion.

Current data highlight significant disparities within Europe. Many Western European countries provide only limited assistance, especially when compared to the Nordic and Baltic countries.

Countries like Estonia and Denmark have allocated more than 2% of their GDP to Ukraine as of 2021, compared to roughly 0.4-0.5% from Germany and the UK, and only 0.1-0.2% from France, Italy, and Spain.

In a previous analysis, the authors emphasized that most large European countries—such as the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain—must increase their support to partially or fully replace US assistance. Overall, according to the estimates, European governments spend only 0.1% of their annual GDP on aid to Ukraine.

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