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Bloomberg: Russia’s success prospects fade with renewed arms support and cons of attrition strategy

“The prospects of Russia achieving victory this year have greatly reduced as a result” of the resumption of weapons supplies and aid, states Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Destroyed Russian tanks near Avdiivka. Credit: The commander of the operational and strategic grouping of troops “Tavria,” Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, via Telegram
Bloomberg: Russia’s success prospects fade with renewed arms support and cons of attrition strategy

Months of Russia-Ukraine war have revealed a stalling momentum for Russia as Ukrainian forces receive significant arms support from the US and Europe and Russian military’s advantage diminishes amid prolonged battles and increasing casualties, according to Bloomberg analysis.

In Vovchansk, a town on the front line in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces claim to have inflicted significant losses on Russian troops. Despite Russia’s attempts to open new fronts, such as in northeast Kharkiv, their progress remains limited, failing to establish desired buffer zones along the border.

Russia’s strategy of attrition to exhaust Ukraine’s forces is “very expensive and bloody for the Russian army itself,” says Ruslan Pukhov, from Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

While Russia continues assaults along multiple points, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi expresses optimism about altering the war’s dynamics in Ukraine’s favor.

Despite Putin’s determination to persist in Ukraine, US and European arms deliveries have begun to shift the balance of power, some experts assert. With billions in arms funding approved by Congress, Ukraine’s resistance gains strength, leaving Russia with a narrower path to victory. “The prospects of Russia achieving victory this year have greatly reduced as a result” of the resumption of weapons supplies and aid, states Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Facing economic strain and social challenges, Putin’s leadership faces scrutiny as casualties mount and military resources diminish.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks to bolster military numbers through legislative changes, while Russia avoids mass mobilization to avert social unrest. Putin’s December claim of 617,000 troops deployed in Ukraine contrasts sharply with reported casualty figures, the analysis reveals.

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